Sweden's Sixth National Communication on Climate Change

Sweden’

Sweden’s Sixth National Communication

s Sixth National Communication on Climate Change

on Climate Change

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

106 47 Stockholm Tel 08-598 191 90 Fax 08-598 191 91 order.fritzes@nj.se www.fritzes.se ISBN 978-91-38-24100-4 ISSN 0284-6012

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Cover photo: Hanna Brolinson English translation and language editing: Martin Naylor, with valuable assistance from Clare James Graphic design/figures/illustrations: Kaigan Printed by Kaigan, Stockholm 2014

ISBN 978-91-38-24100-4 ISSN 0284-6012

Sweden’s Sixth National Communication on Climate Change Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Foreword

In this report, Sweden’s Sixth National Communication In addition to these objectives, Sweden has defined to the United Nations Framework Convention on Cli- a priority of phasing out all fossil fuels used for heating mate Change (UNFCCC), a comprehensive summary in the housing sector by 2020 and a priority of having of Sweden’s efforts to combat climate change is pro- a vehicle fleet independent of fossil fuels by 2030. vided in accordance with the guidelines adopted by Furthermore, the long-term vision is that Sweden will the parties to the UNFCCC. Emissions and removals be a country with no net emissions of greenhouse gases of different greenhouse gases are reported for each to the atmosphere by 2050. sector according to the UNFCCC classification and The report also contains projections for emissions in aggregate for each year since 1990. Policy measures up to 2020 and 2030. According to these projections, adopted and their impact on emissions are described. emissions will continue to decrease, and the national The assessments presented in the report show that target for 2020 is within reach. Sweden has succeeded in breaking the link between The National Communication also describes Sweden’s economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. The vulnerability and efforts to adapt to climate change. policy instruments introduced have had a significant Sweden’s contributions to climate finance, inter alia effect, and emissions have fallen by around 16% in through development assistance of relevance to cliabsolute numbers between 1990 and 2011. Moreover, mate change, are presented, as are research and develpreliminary statistics for 2012 show a decrease of opment. Finally, a description is provided of Sweden’s almost 20% since 1990. At the same time, Sweden has work on education, training and public awareness with seen relatively high economic growth with an increase regard to climate change. The material on which the in GDP of almost 60% since 1990. National Communication is based has been obtained The Riksdag (the Swedish Parliament) has adopt- through extensive activity on the part of government ed sixteen environmental quality objectives. At the agencies, led by the Swedish Environmental Protection forefront of these is the objective for Reduced Climate Agency with input from around ten other government Impact. The objective originally adopted in 1999 agencies. was in 2009 further specified by the Riksdag, which Most of the work on the Sixth National Communication stated that the increase in global average tempera- was done over the period from the end of 2012 to the ture should be limited to no more than 2 °C above summer of 2013. Since then a number of important pre-industrial levels, while global atmospheric con- policy decisions have been made that are of relevance centrations of greenhouse gases should be limited for the Swedish Climate Strategy, notably a common to 400 ppm CO 2 equivalent. declaration in September 2013 between the USA and Further, Sweden has a national milestone target for the Nordic countries agreeing to continue their work climate, calling for a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas to reduce the use of domestic fossil fuel subsidies emissions by 2020. The target applies to sectors not globally, to end public financing for new coal-fired included in the EU Emissions Trading System, such as power plants overseas except in rare circumstances, transport, housing, waste facilities, agriculture and and to undertake peer reviews of domestic fossil fuel non-energy-intensive industry. The reduction rate for subsidies. Further, the Government announced in the activities encompassed by the EU Emissions Trading Budget Bill for 2014 that it intends to establish a new System is determined by existing EU law and will investment fund focusing on energy and clean tech achieve emission cuts in this sector by 21 per cent in investments, and the Riksdag has decided on funding 2020 compared to 2005. for a pilot project aimed at increasing the share of

anaerobic digestion of manure, leading to a double climate benefit as it reduces emissions of methane and increases the supply of renewable fuel. Sweden has also announced that it will provide approximately SEK 300 million to the Green Climate Fund, provided that it becomes operational in 2014, with all the necessary arrangements and standards in place.

Stockholm, December 2013

Lena Ek Minister for the Environment

Contents

1 Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

1.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.2 National circumstances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.3 Greenhouse gas inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 1.4 Policies and measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.5 Projections and the total effect of policies and measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1.6 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.7 Financial resources and transfer of technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.8 Research and systematic observation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 1.9 Education, training and public awareness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

2 National circumstances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

2.1 Government structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 2.2 Population profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 2.3 Geographic profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 2.4 Climate profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2.5 Economic profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.6 Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.7 Building stock and urban structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 2.8 Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 2.9 Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.10 Waste . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.11 Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.12 Forestry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 2.13 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

3 Greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

3.1 Total emissions and removals of greenhouse gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 3.2 Emissions and removals of greenhouse gases by sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 3.3 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

4 Policies and measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

4.1 Swedish climate strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 4.2 Policies and measures in Sweden’s climate strategy and their effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 4.3 Work on project-based flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 4.4 Cost-effectiveness of policies and measures in Sweden’s climate strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 4.5 Policies and measures no longer in place . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 4.6 Summary of policies and measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 4.7 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

5 Projections and the total effect of policies and measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

5.1 Projection of total emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 5.2 Projections by gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 5.3 Projections by sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 5.4 Sensitivity analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 5.5 Projection with additional measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 5.6 Comparison with the Fifth National Communication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 5.7 Assessment of aggregate effects of policies and measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 5.8 Progress towards meeting Sweden’s commitment for the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 5.9 Progress towards targets under the EU Climate and Energy Package . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 5.10 Progress towards the milestone target for Sweden’s environmental quality objective Reduced Climate Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 5.11 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

6 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

6.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 6.2 Sweden’s changing climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 6.3 Climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 6.4 Current and completed climate adaptation activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 6.5 International work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 6.6 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

7 Financial resources and transfer of technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

7.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 7.2 Governing policies and principles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 7.3 The Swedish Government’s Special Climate Change Initiative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 7.4 Multilateral financial support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 7.5 Bilateral financial support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 7.6 Technology development and diffusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 7.7 Capacity building . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 7.8 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

8 Research and systematic observation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

8.1 Climate research policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

8.2 Nordic collaboration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 8.3 European collaboration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 8.4 Global collaboration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 8.5 Organisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 8.6 Systematic observation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 8.7 Programmes and funding of climate-related research, including international cooperation . . . . . . . . 112 8.8 Programmes and funding of systematic observation, including international cooperation . . . . . . . . . . 115 8.9 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

9 Education, training and public awareness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

9.1 Policy for education, training and public awareness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 9.2 Mass media and climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 9.3 Public awareness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 9.4 Knowledge centres for climate information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 9.5 Complementary knowledge centres . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 9.6 Initiatives and activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 9.7 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124

Annexes

Annex 1: Acronyms and abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

Annex 2: Summary emissions tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130

Annex 3: The national system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154

Annex 4: The national registry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158

Annex 5: Projection methodology and calculation assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160

Annex 6: Bilateral and regional financial support 2009–2012 related to implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol . . . . . . . 164

Annex 7: Information in accordance with Article 7 .2 of the Kyoto Protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180

Executive summary

1.1 Introduction

since 1860, while those of 2009/10 and 2010/11 were the coldest since the late 1980s, resulting in very high This is Sweden’s Sixth National Communication (NC6), demand for energy for heating. presenting the national activities that have been under- From 1990 to 2010, the economy grew by an average taken to meet the country’s commitments under the of 2.2% a year, with the strongest growth, averaging UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 3–7% a year, in the periods 1994–95, 1998–2000 and (UNFCCC) and which, as provided by the UNFCCC, 2004–06 and in 2010. Natural resources such as forests the Kyoto Protocol and separate Conferences of the and iron ore form a basis for industrial production Parties (COPs), are to be reported in a national com- and, along with the engineering industry, have resulted munication. in a strongly export-oriented economy in Sweden. Emissions of greenhouse gases in Sweden, excluding Total energy supplied in Sweden has shown a rising emissions and removals from land use, land-use change trend since 1970, from some 450 TWh to about 600 and forestry (LULUCF), fell by 16% over the period TWh from the mid-1990s. Final energy use (i.e. total 1990–2011 and are expected to continue to decline. By energy supplied minus distribution losses) increased 2020, emissions are currently projected to be some by about 12% from 1970 to 2010, and has stood at 19% below 1990 levels, based on existing measures. approximately 450 TWh for the past five years. Sweden Sweden’s commitment on emissions under the Kyoto produces no oil, natural gas or coal. Its total energy Protocol and EU burden sharing is to ensure that, as an supply is based chiefly on domestic supply of biofuels, annual average for the period 2008–12, emissions are hydropower and, to a lesser extent, ambient heat from no more than 104% of base-year emissions. A prelim- heat pumps, and on imports of uranium, oil, natural inary gap analysis indicates that Sweden will meet its gas, coal and biofuels. Since 1970, the energy supply commitment by a good margin. mix has changed, with crude oil replaced to a large extent by nuclear power and biofuels. Beginning in the late 1960s, the infrastructure for district heating pro-

1.2 National circumstances duction and distribution has been extended. By 2010,

Factors affecting a country’s level of and trends in production of district heat had risen by 356% since greenhouse gas emissions include population, climate, 1970 and 62% since 1990. Meanwhile, the share of bioenergy and transport systems, industrial structure and fuels in production had grown from 2% in 1970 to 25% the economy. in 1990 and 63% in 2010. A major shift has occurred Sweden’s population in 2012 was 9.6 million, with in the use of energy for homes and non-residential an annual growth rate since 1990 of 0.5%. By 2030 the premises. population is expected to have risen to 10.7 million. In 2011, district heating accounted for more than Over the period 1991–2012, the mean temperature 90% of energy use for heating and hot water in multiwas about 1 °C higher than in 1961–90. How ever, there dwelling buildings and for 75% in commercial and may still be major variations from year to year. To date, institutional premises. 1996 and 2010 are the only years since 1990 with a The energy efficiency of newly produced singlegreater heating requirement than the average for family houses has improved by over 20%. In houses 1965–95. Winter 2007/08 was the warmest of all winters built in the period 2001–11, average energy use is 107

6 1. Executive summary

kWh/m , compared with 130 kWh/m in those built in has shrunk by roughly 8% since 1990. Since 2000, there 1991–2000. has been an increase in cultivation of forage and green District heating has promoted biofuel-based heating fodder crops at the expense of cereal growing. Since of buildings and has been a crucial factor in enabling 1990, the arable area, number of cattle and use of national policy instruments for renewable energy to mineral fertiliser and animal manure have decreased, bring about the extensive phase-out of the use of fossil reducing emissions of methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous fuels for this purpose that has been achieved. Between oxide (N 2 0). 1990 and 2010, the share of renewable energy in Sweden rose by 15 percentage points to 48%. The re-

newable energy sources contributing to this trend are 1.3 Greenhouse gas inventory

hydropower, wind power, use of by-products in the Greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden in 2011, excludpaper and pulp industry, and biofuels for district heat- ing LULUCF, amounted to some 61.4 million tonnes ing. Ample watercourses for hydropower production, of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO 2 eq). Of this combined with national energy policy and invest- total, carbon dioxide made up 79%, or 48.7 Mt. The ments in non-fossil-based generation, have enabled majority (88%) of carbon dioxide emissions come from Sweden to produce electricity by almost entirely fos- the energy and transport sectors. Other emissions sil-free means. consisted of nitrous oxide (chiefly from agriculture), Emissions from the transport sector have increased accounting for 11% of the total or 6.7 Mt CO 2 eq, sharply since 1970. For goods transport, road trans- methane (mainly from agriculture and waste), 8% or port and shipping account for roughly equal propor- 5 Mt CO 2 eq, and fluorinated greenhouse gases, just tions, while rail represents a smaller share. The past under 2% or 1.1 Mt CO 2 eq. Total emissions fell by few years’ fluctuations in economic trends have had a around 11 Mt CO 2 eq, or 16%, between 1990 and 2011. greater influence on freight than on passenger trans- Apart from high levels in 2010, the trend in emissions port activity. since 1998 has been downward. Between-year vari- In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, the rapid rise ations are largely due to fluctuations in temperature in passenger travel has been offset by more energy- and precipitation and to the economic situation. efficient cars and increased use of renewable fuels, Emissions from the energy industries sector (electriwhich have reduced emissions per passenger-kilometre. city and heat production, refineries and manufacture The efficiency of freight transport also improved in of solid fuels) totalled 10.7 Mt CO 2 eq in 2011. The the 1990s. dominant share of these emissions came from district Swedish industry is characteristically based more on heating plants. District heat is produced largely from raw materials than in many other countries. The forest biofuels, with fossil fuels serving as a complement, for (wood products, paper and pulp) and iron and steel example in very cold weather. Emissions can therefore industries, for example, are based on domestic natural vary widely from one year to another, depending on resources. Energy use and process emissions in the the temperature. minerals and iron and steel industries have a substantial Industrial emissions comprise emissions from both impact on Sweden’s greenhouse gas emissions. fuel combustion in industry and industrial processes. In 2010, some 118 million tonnes of waste was gener- In 2011, these emissions came to 9.5 and 6.7 Mt CO 2 ated in Sweden, roughly 76% of it in the mining and eq, respectively. Variations occur from year to year, quarrying industry. The total volume is affected by chiefly owing to economic fluctuations. In recent years economic trends and fluctuations. Landfill disposal of there has been a downward trend in emissions from waste has decreased sharply in the past decade, to just industrial combustion, due to a shift from oil to elecunder 1% of household waste today (compared with tricity and biofuels. Industrial process emissions have 21% in 2001), mainly owing to new policy objectives also shown a modest decline over recent years. and associated instruments. Materials recovery from Emissions from domestic transport in 2011 were 20 household waste has increased by 13% since 2001. In Mt CO 2 eq, a third of the national total. This repre- 2011, 270 GWh of landfill gas (18% of total biogas sents an increase of 4% compared with 1990. The energy) was recovered and used mainly for heating, majority of emissions in this sector come from cars but also for electricity production and as a vehicle (11.7 Mt CO 2 eq) and heavy-duty vehicles (6.7 Mt CO 2 fuel. eq). Emissions from cars have fallen by 9% since 1990, The area of agricultural land in Sweden in 2012 was despite growth in traffic. This is the result of a shift to 3 million ha in all, representing some 7% of the more energy-efficient vehicles and to biofuels. Over country’s total land area. The area under cultivation the same period, emissions from heavy vehicles have

1. Executive summary 7

risen by 44%, owing to more goods being transported Emissions from international shipping and aviation, over ever greater distances. known as international bunkers, amounted to 8.3 Mt Emissions from ‘Other sectors’, i.e. fuel combustion CO 2 eq in 2011, an increase of 129% since 1990. The in the commercial and institutional, residential, and majority of these emissions come from shipping. Emisagriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors, come pri- sions fluctuate, depending on fuel prices in Sweden marily from stationary combustion (heating), and to a compared with other countries. These emissions are lesser extent from mobile combustion (mobile ma- not covered by any international commitments, but chinery, off-road vehicles and fishing boats). In 2011, as from 2012 aviation is included in the EU Emissions they totalled 3.7 Mt CO 2 eq, a decrease of 67% since Trading System (EU ETS). 1990. The most important factor behind this trend is Over the period 1990–2011, the LULUCF sector switching from oil-based to district and electric heat- represented an annual net sink, as a result of carbon ing. In addition, most winters since 1990 have been dioxide from the atmosphere being taken up by biomild. Emissions from mobile combustion in these sec- mass. During the period, this net removal varied between tors are very low, but rising. 27 and 38 Mt CO 2 eq. In 2011, it amounted to 35 Mt Greenhouse gas emissions from the use of solvents CO 2 eq, corresponding to 57% of national greenhouse and other products amounted to 0.3 Mt CO 2 eq in gas emissions. Forest land accounts for the majority of 2011. Compared with 1990, this represents a reduc- removals from land use, and the trend points to a slight tion of 11%, chiefly due to a shift from oil- to water- decline in removals in this sector, due to increased based paints. felling. Cropland is a net source of greenhouse gases In 2011, total emissions from the agricultural sector (1.3–2.7 Mt CO 2 eq between 1990 and 2011), as the came to some 7.8 Mt CO 2 eq, of which 63% was nitrous cultivation of organic soils gives rise to emissions. oxide and 37% methane. Agriculture is the largest The contributions from grassland, wetlands and settlesource of emissions of these two gases. Emissions from ments are very small, owing to the limited areas devoted the sector have fallen by 14% since 1990. The main to these types of land use in Sweden. reasons for the decrease are a decline in livestock numbers and reduced use of fertilisers and manure in agriculture.

Total emissions from the waste sector in 2011 were 1.4 Policies and measures

just over 1.7 Mt CO 2 eq, half of what they were in Sweden’s climate strategy has progressively developed 1990. Emissions from this sector come from landfill since the late 1980s. It consists of objectives, policy sites, wastewater and incineration of hazardous waste. instruments and measures, together with regular fol- Landfills are the second largest source of methane low-up and evaluation. In recent years, the country’s emissions, after livestock farming. The reduction in climate policy has continued to evolve towards strongemissions from the waste sector is primarily due to er EU integration and closer inter national cooperathe bans on landfill disposal introduced in 2002 and tion. Sweden is working with the other EU member 2005. states to achieve a global agreement compatible with the goal of limiting the rise in tempera ture to no more Million tonnes of CO equivalent than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. 2 The environmental quality objective Reduced Climate 100 Impact , adopted by the Riksdag (the Swedish Parlia- 80 ment), forms the basis for action on climate change in 60 Sweden. Current climate policy is set out in two Govern- 40 ment Bills, entitled An Integrated Climate and Energy Policy , passed by the Riksdag in June 2009. The first of 20 these Bills establishes an interpretation of the Reduced 0 Climate Impact objective in terms of a temperature 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -20 target and a concentration target. The temperature -40 target is that the increase in global average temperature should be limited to no more than 2 °C above pre- -60 Energy Industrial processes industrial levels. From this target a concentration Solvent use Agriculture target is derived, according to which Swedish climate Land use (LULUCF) Waste policy is to be designed to contribute to ensuring that Figure 1.1 Total greenhouse gas emissions from different sectors. the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmos-

8 1. Executive summary

phere is stabilised in the long term at no more than central government support for research. In 2012, the 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent. Government decided to extend and progressively The Bill also sets a national milestone target for cli- strengthen investments in energy research, setting a mate, calling for a 40% reduction in emissions by 2020, funding level of some SEK 1.3bn for the years 2013–15 compared with 1990. This target applies to activities and about SEK 1.4bn from 2016 onwards. Most of not included in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU these funds are directed to realising energy and cli- ETS). It is more ambitious than Sweden’s commitment mate objectives, long-term energy and climate policy, under the Effort Sharing Decision implementing the and energy-related environmental policy goals. EU Climate and Energy Package. In addition, the Bill makes it a priority for Sweden to have a vehicle fleet

independent of fossil fuels by 2030, and sets out a Energy sector

vision of Sweden as a country with no net emissions of Since 1990, the production of electricity and district greenhouse gases to the atmosphere by 2050. heating has been marked by a very substantial expan- Sweden has introduced a range of policies and meas- sion of renewable fuels. The use of fossil fuels in this ures directly or indirectly affecting greenhouse gas sector has in recent decades been affected by energy emissions. The emphasis in the country’s climate strat- and carbon dioxide taxes. The aggregate level of taxegy is on the use of general economic instruments, but es on fossil fuel use in the sector has risen steadily in many cases these are supplemented with targeted since 1990, making it considerably more expensive to measures, for example to support the development burn these fuels than it would have been if energy and market introduction of technology and eliminate taxation had been kept at its 1990 level. Since 2005, barriers to energy efficiency. most combustion installations for power and heat Since the early 1990s, two key instruments in redu- production have been included in the EU ETS, which cing Swedish emissions have been the energy and is a key policy instrument for the sector. carbon dioxide taxes. These taxes have been supple- Model estimates show that emissions from the elecmented with other instruments, however, such as an tricity and district heating sector (including industrial electricity certificates system, technology procure- back-pressure power) could have been almost 14 Mt ment, information, a differentiated annual vehicle tax CO 2 eq higher in 2010 if policy instruments had reand investment grants. Legislation also plays a part in mained at their 1990 levels. The difference in modcurbing emissions, primarily in the waste sector. In elled emissions is due above all to significantly greater recent years, EU-wide policy instruments, in parti- use of coal in the scenario based on 1990 instruments cular the Emissions Trading System, have assumed than in the one based on current levels of instruments. growing importance in Sweden. Alongside the energy and carbon dioxide taxes, there The EU ETS, with a fixed emissions cap that de- are a number of policy instruments targeted at energy creases every year, is an important part of the EU’s use in homes and commercial and institutional premstrategy to reduce emissions within the Union, and is ises. These include new building regulations, energy also key to Sweden’s efforts to achieve climate targets performance certificates, the EU Energy Labelling and for 2020 at EU level. Emissions from Swedish installa- Energy Efficiency Directives, and the Ecodesign Directions included in the EU ETS made up around 33% of tive, which results in energy savings by prohibiting the total greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden over the least energy-efficient products. In addition, there are period 2008–12. Some 80% of these emissions came instruments such as technology procurement, network from industrial plants and 20% from power and dis- initiatives and information campaigns at the local, retrict heating installations. Overall, the emissions cap gional and national levels. for 2008–12 was some 10% lower than the cap for 2005–07.

The design of spatial planning and other instru- Industrial sector

ments long established in Sweden has very much de- The policies and measures primarily affecting comfined the framework for the developments of recent bustion emissions from industry are the EU ETS, energy decades. Of particular importance are the early invest- and carbon dioxide taxes, the electricity certificates ments made in an expansion of district heating net- system, the Programme for Energy Efficiency in Energyworks, public transport systems and carbon-free pro- Intensive Industry (PFE) and the Environmental Code. duction of electricity. Industrial process emissions have come almost entire- Funding for climate research has increased, amount- ly within the scope of the EU ETS since its expansion ing to almost SEK 2 billion in 2010, or around 7% of all for the third trading period (2013–20). Emissions of

1. Executive summary 9

fluorinated greenhouse gases are governed by an EU The EU’s Common Agricultural Policy significantly regulation and directive covering certain emissions of affects the extent, direction and profitability of agriculfluorinated gases. ture in Sweden. Reform of the policy in 2003 decoupled agricultural support from production and made more

Transport sector resources available for measures to limit the climate

Support for research, development, demonstration impact of the farming sector. and piloting of biofuels in the transport sector is It is estimated that the effect of the climate and an important policy instrument. On average, some energy initiatives expected to be implemented under SEK 240m annually has been made available for this the new Rural Development Programme for 2007–13 purpose in recent years. Research in support of a fos- will be to reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by sil-independent vehicle fleet is a priority area, and 0.5 Mt CO 2 eq, primarily through switching from fossil in 2012 SEK 1,240m was allocated for the period energy to renewable energy from agriculture and 2013–16. through greater energy efficiency. Another instrument of great importance is vehicle Swedish forest policy has two overarching object ives, fuel taxes. Petrol and diesel are subject to both an a production objective and an environmental one. energy tax and a carbon dioxide tax. In addition, value According to the latter, forests are to be protected, at added tax is charged on the sales value. The carbon the same time as biodiversity, cultural heritage and dioxide tax on vehicle fuels was introduced in 1991 social values are safeguarded. As part of the ‘Forest and has since been raised in several stages. In accordance Kingdom’ initiative, central government advice to the with the climate policy decision of 2009, the energy tax forestry sector has been stepped up, with a view to on diesel has been increased in two stages, in 2011 and promoting effective and functional consideration for 2013, by a total of SEK 0.40/litre. the environment and improved forest management. The effect of the tax increases on diesel and petrol Sweden is also developing a strategy for long-term sussince 1990 is estimated to be around 2 Mt CO 2 eq/year tainable land use, aimed at achieving the generational lower emissions in 2010 and 2 Mt CO 2 eq/year lower goal for the environment and the environmental qualemissions in both 2015 and 2020, compared with if the ity objectives. Final proposals for this strategy are to 1990 nominal level of taxation had been retained. be presented in 2014. Existing legislation also indirectly affects trends in carbon dioxide removals in vari-

Waste ous ways, in particular through provisions on forest

Overall, the bans on landfill are judged to have had management in the Forestry Act, the land drainage the greatest impact in terms of reducing landfill dis- provisions of the Environmental Code, site protection posal of organic material, which will result in lower and nature conservation agreements. Furthermore, as a emissions of methane in the future. Demand for waste result of the sectoral responsibility that applies in as a fuel for district heating has also strongly encour- Sweden, most of the country’s forest owners have aged diversion from landfill to incineration. joined voluntary certification schemes, which are de- An analysis of the combined effect of policy instru- signed to raise the level of ambition as regards the ecoments influencing methane emissions from landfill logical, economic and social aspects of forestry. This sites showed that, in a scenario based on instruments has also led to more land being set aside, helping to decided on at the time of the analysis, emissions would increase uptake of carbon dioxide. end up around 1.4 Mt CO 2 eq lower in 2010 than in a

scenario based on 1990 instruments. By 2020, the dif- Flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol

ference was projected to be 1.9 Mt CO 2 eq. Sweden has an active programme to implement the project-based mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, the

Agriculture and forestry Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Im-

Although, as yet, there are relatively few policy in- plementation (JI). Under its CDM and JI programme, struments directly targeted at limiting greenhouse gas the country has participated in both individual proemissions from Swedish agriculture, interest in miti- jects, chiefly in the areas of renewable energy and engating the sector’s climate impact has grown. Sweden ergy efficiency, and multilateral CDM and JI funds. has taken a number of initiatives recently to reduce Up to and including 2013, Sweden has approved fundfossil fuel use in farming, and to increase awareness ing for international climate initiatives under the and encourage the use of measures that will curb emis- CDM and JI totalling some SEK 2.5bn for the period sions of greenhouse gases from manure and fertiliser up to 2022, and it has currently signed contracts for management and from land use. 67 individual CDM projects and 2 JI projects. Priority

10 1. Executive summary

is being given to CDM projects in least developed heat, whereas refinery emissions show a significant countries, small island developing states and in Africa. rise. Emissions from the manufacture of solid fuels Sweden is participating in seven multinational remain at the roughly same level over the projection funds: the Prototype Carbon Fund, Asia Pacific Carbon horizon. During this period, production of electricity Fund, Future Carbon Fund, Multilateral Carbon is assumed to grow more than consumption, resulting Credit Fund and Testing Ground Facility, as well as the in a projected net export of around 23 TWh by 2020. Umbrella Carbon Facility Tranche 2 and Carbon Part- Emissions from fuel combustion in the commercial nership Facility, which the country has joined since and institutional, residential, and agriculture, forestry 2009. and fisheries sectors fell sharply from 1990 to 2011 Sweden’s aim is to achieve emission reductions of at and are expected to continue to decrease somewhat least 40 Mt CO 2 eq through international climate ini- up to 2020 and 2030. The decline is primarily due to tiatives under the CDM and JI programme, as a contri- heat pumps, biofuels and district heating replacing the bution to meeting its national target for 2020. Total use of oil for space and water heating. funding appropriated by the Riksdag, including the Energy use in industry is expected to rise between authorisation framework for the period up to and in- 2011 and 2020, as a result of assumed growth in procluding 2013, is expected to be sufficient to acquire duction. Industrial combustion emissions, on the other credits corresponding to around 27–29 Mt CO 2 eq. hand, are projected to fall, above all because of an expected reduction in emissions from the pulp and paper industry, driven by a shift from fossil fuels to greater use of biofuels. Emissions from industrial pro-

1.5 Projections and the total effect of cesses are expected to decline slightly overall over the policies and measures projection horizon. This is because, owing to new EU

regulations, a decrease in fluorinated greenhouse gases

Projections is projected that is larger than the expected rise in

The reference scenario takes into account policies and methane and carbon dioxide emissions. measures currently adopted by the EU and the Riksdag, Greenhouse gas emissions from domestic transport together with an assessment of future economic trends. are expected to fall, and while the decline may slow The results of the projection (see Table 1.1) indicate down, according to the projection it will continue up a gradual decline in total emissions of greenhouse to 2030. The majority of emissions in this sector come gases (excluding LULUCF) over the projection period. from road transport. The main factors behind the de- By 2020 and 2030, aggregate emissions are projected crease are reduced use of petrol, switching to diesel to be 19% and 21% lower, respectively, than in 1990. and more energy-efficient vehicles. The LULUCF sector represented a net sink for Sweden Emissions from the use of solvents and other prodover the period 1990–2011, and is projected to con- ucts are projected to remain at roughly the same level tinue to do so up to 2030. as in the last few years throughout the projection Projections of greenhouse gas emissions differ be- period. tween sectors. Over the period from 2011 to 2020 and Owing to a number of measures, emissions of me- 2030, emissions from domestic transport, for example, thane from landfill sites have fallen since 1990. This are projected to decrease, while total emissions from downward trend is expected to continue over the prothe energy industries remain unchanged. Emissions jection horizon, thanks to methane recovery and smaller from industrial combustion are expected to rise some- quantities of waste going to landfill. what up to 2020, before showing a modest fall. Emis- Emissions from the agricultural sector have declined sions in the remaining sectors decrease slightly over the since 1990, a trend that is projected to continue up to period of the projection. 2020 and 2030. The chief reasons for the historical de- Between 2011 and 2030, emissions from the energy crease are a reduction in livestock numbers, declining industries (production of electricity and district hea t- use of mineral fertilisers, reduced leaching of nitrogen ing, refineries and the manufacture of solid fuels) are and a shift to slurry systems for manure management. projected to show differing trends in each of the sub- Over the projection period, the reduction in emissions is sectors, but to remain at approximately the same level attributed to increased productivity. With production overall throughout the projection period. Emissions expected to be maintained at the same level in 2030 as from electricity generation and district heating are today, there will be a smaller dairy herd and continued expected to fall slightly, despite an increase in the pro- decline in the area under cereals up to 2020 and 2030. duction of electricity in particular, but also of district Emissions from energy use in agriculture are pro jected

1. Executive summary 11

Table 1.1 Historic and projected emissions and removals of greenhouse gases, by sector (million tonnes of CO 2

equivalent)

transport Transport 19.3 20.0 19.8 19.1 18.9 18.7 –1% –3% Industrial 6.3 6.7 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 –2% –2% processes

to fall between 2011 and 2030, owing to reduced con- Table 1.2 Historic and projected greenhouse gas sumption of diesel for mobile machinery and of oil for

emissions in relation to Kyoto base year and Sweden’s

greenhouses and other agricultural buildings. Emissions

Kyoto target (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

from forestry machinery are expected to remain level Kyoto base-year emissions 72.2 Mt over the projection period. Kyoto target, base year to first commitment period 4% (2008–12)

Progress towards meeting Sweden’s commitment

Kyoto target for 2008–12, per year 75 Mt EU ETS allocation (2008–12) 22.4 Mt

under the Kyoto Protocol

Preliminary non-EU ETS emissions (2008–12) 41.5 Mt Under Sweden’s commitment for the first commit- EU ETS allocation + preliminary non-EU ETS 63.9 Mt ment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–12) and EU emissions, per year Carbon sink under Articles 3.3 and 3.4 2.13 Mt burden sharing, greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden, Emissions 2008–12 per year, incl. carbon sink 61.7 Mt excluding LULUCF, are not to exceed the country’s as- Average surplus of AAUs, per year 13.3 Mt signed amount, which was 104% of base-year emissions Emissions 2008–12 incl. carbon sink, relative to –18 % as an average for the years 2008–12 when assigned base-year emissions amount units (AAUs) were allocated. This means that Sweden’s assigned amount of emissions was set at 75 Mt CO 2 eq per year, as an average for 2008–12, taking

1.6 Vulnerability assessment, climate

no account of flexibilities. Of this amount, around 22.4 Mt CO eq has been allocated to the EU Emis-

change impacts and adaptation

2 sions Trading System (EU ETS). The limit on emissions

not included in the trading system is thus 52.6 Mt measures

CO 2 eq as an average for 2008–12. Preliminary average emissions outside the EU Climate change affects large parts of Swedish society. ETS for the period 2008–12 come to 41.5 Mt CO 2 eq. Today, more extensive data are available on conceivable A gap analysis has been performed in relation to the regional changes in climate than have been reported in target of 52.6 Mt CO 2 eq for non-EU ETS emissions. earlier national communications. Recent results point, The preliminary analysis shows that emissions are 11.1 in particular, to substantial warming and changes in Mt CO 2 eq below this target. When the carbon sink precipitation, broadly confirming the findings of earis included, emissions are on average 13.3 Mt CO 2 eq lier scenario work. below the target, taking into account the effect of the An analysis of possible climate trends in all Swed- EU ETS. Table 1.2 shows that Sweden’s Kyoto target ish counties during the 21st century, and of historic can be met with national measures alone, even with no trends up to and including to 2012, shows that the allowance made for the carbon sink. Preparations have largest changes in temperature in Sweden can be exbeen made to be able to use JI and CDM credits, but pected in the winter months, especially in the far the Riksdag has decided that the country is to meet north. The scenarios indicate, in most cases, rising its commitment without these mechanisms, which the precipitation throughout the country, but with deprojection shows that it will do by a good margin. creases in some cases in the far south in summer. The

12 1. Executive summary

largest increases in precipitation can be expected in events. In particular, this has involved measures in the winter. areas of physical planning and building. Some mu- In a changed climate in Sweden, involving rising nicipalities have also raised the minimum level for temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, few construction, built levees and invested in pump sysactivities will remain entirely unaffected. Risks of tems to protect against flooding. Some have begun to flooding, landslides and erosion are expected to in- modify water and sewerage systems to avoid the harmcrease in many parts of the country. There could be a ful effects of heavy downpours. heightened risk of flooding around some of Sweden’s largest lakes, making an ability to regulate the flow of

water increasingly necessary. 1.7 Financial resources and transfer of Since 2005, adaptation to climate change has been technology

stepped up in various ways in Sweden. In autumn 2012, a summary from spring 2010 of government agencies’ Sweden has a long history of supporting work on cliadaptation remits and activities, entitled Climate Adap- mate change issues in developing countries, in an array tation in Sweden: An Overview , was updated. of sectors and on a long-term basis. A large number of Responsibility for climate change adaptation is Swedish actors, such as ministries, govern ment agenshared among several government agencies which, as cies, state-owned companies, non-governmental organpart of their sectoral responsibilities, have important isations, universities and the private sector, assist in roles to play. Based on their respective sectoral remits, climate change-related cooperative actions and activthese agencies are working to carry out preventive ities such as technology development, research and measures, achieve greater skills and knowledge, and various forms of capacity development. A number of foster better preparedness for the challenges which different modes of cooperation, policy instruments climate change poses. Since 2011, a new Planning and and forms of support exist. Climate finance is provided Building Act has been in force, with several provisions from both public and private sources. that were added in response to the problems of cli- Sweden’s policy for global development, the Governmate change. The Swedish National Board of Housing, ment’s policy for environmental and climate issues in Building and Planning has developed an online guide development cooperation, and the principles of develfor communication and information on the new Act opment effectiveness from Paris, Accra and Busan are (the ‘PBA Knowledge Bank’). Since 2012, the Swedish central to the planning and implementation of Swed- Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) has ish climate finance from public sources. been tasked by the Government with establishing a Over the period 2009–12, Sweden provided almost National Knowledge Centre for Climate Change SEK 12 billion of public climate finance for devel oping Adap tation and, jointly with a number of other agen- countries. Additional support is given to a range of cies, has run a national portal for adaptation. A new development institutions and organisations which heatwave warning system was also launched in 2012. likewise contribute to climate change mitigation and The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency is charged adaptation. with supporting municipalities and county adminis- A flagship during this period was the Government’s trative boards with overview mapping of stability and Special Climate Change Initiative, which channelled flood risks. In the energy sector, vulnerability to ex- resources through multilateral climate funds and initreme weather events has been analysed, for example tiatives such as the Adaptation Fund, the Least Develwith respect to how the safety of hydropower and tail- oped Countries Fund (LDCF), the World Bank Group’s ings dams and the risk of flooding are affected by cli- Climate Investment Funds (CIFs) and the United mate change. Na tions Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), Since 2009, county administrative boards have had a as well as bilaterally to countries exposed to a high cli- Government remit to coordinate climate change adap- mate risk combined with high vulnerability, including tation regionally. Responsibility for practical adapta- Burkina Faso, Mali, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Bolivia. tion measures is usually located at local, municipal The Climate Change Initiative formed part of level. Municipalities are responsible for spatial and Sweden’s contribution to ‘fast-start finance’, a collecemergency planning and the rescue services, and are tive commitment made by developed countries at the commissioning authorities for public utilities and COP 15 in Copenhagen in 2009. The total Swedish other technical services. fast-start contribution amounted to more than SEK To date, concrete adaptations have been started, 8bn for 2010–12, making Sweden one of the largest per above all, in municipalities hit by extreme weather capita contributors to this commitment.

1. Executive summary 13

Several Swedish government agencies and institu- needs, scope for protective measures and international tions, such as the Swedish International Development climate policy. Cooperation Agency (Sida), Swedish Energy Agency, Research in support of global negotiations takes Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth, place, for instance, in the International Climate Policy Swedfund and Business Sweden, are also involved in research programme. Support is given to research technology transfer to developing countries and econ- projects, synthesis, advanced investigation and global omies in transition. Key areas of technology include trend analysis, to provide an evidence base in the area waste management, biogas, recycling, bioenergy, solar of climate policy. For the current programme period power, wind power and energy efficiency. Transfer of (2011–14), funds have been awarded for research fotechnology is often combined in an integrated way cusing on land use: measures for reforestation and to with capacity development, to ensure long-term sus- preserve and enhance carbon sinks in forests and wettainability. lands, and their potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Research is also being conducted on the development of models for emission baselines, CO 2 con-

1.8 Research and systematic observation vergence, development of new flexible mechanisms,

In 2004, Sweden established new forms of support for scope for improving measurements, verification and strong research environments at higher education in- follow-up of measures to reduce greenhouse gas emisstitutions. These were later extended in the Research sions in developing countries, and surveys of emission Policy Bill, A Boost to Research and Innovation, for the trajectories for short-lived climate pollutants. The period 2009–12. In addition to this support, the Gov- programme also supports research on countries’ Naernment identified 24 strategic research areas, includ- tional Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). ing climate models, effects on natural resources, eco- Sweden is engaged in various global scientific resystem services and biodiversity, and research on the search activities with a climate perspective, such as the marine environment. Overall funding for climate re- IPCC, World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) search and climate-related energy research rose sub- and International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme stantially over the last reporting period. In 2010, at (IGBP). By participating in the International Council least SEK 2bn was spent on climate research. for Science (ICSU), Swedish researchers have taken a lead in the endeavour to integrate global change pro-

Climate-related research grammes in the international Future Earth initiative,

During the period under review, the focus of research with its focus on integrating research in social and natrelating to climate was on energy research and devel- ural sciences as one means of bridging the gap between opment of technologies to mitigate the climate impact policy and practice. of the energy and transport sectors. Strongly linked to To link Swedish research initiatives in global develenergy issues is research on sustainable use of natural opment in a more strategic and powerful way, the joint resources, given the growing need to obtain energy raw Swedish Secretariat for Environmental Earth System materials from the farm and forestry sectors. Sciences (SSEESS) has been set up by several research The Top-Level Research Initiative launched by the funders: the Swedish Research Council Formas, Swed- Nordic prime ministers in 2007, focusing on cutting- ish Research Council (VR), Swedish Research Council edge research in the areas of climate, energy and en- for Health, Working Life and Welfare (Forte), Swedish vironment, is now in its final phase. Sweden is taking Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems (VINpart in several of the projects, including NORD-STAR NOVA), Sida and the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciand NORDCLAD-net. ences (KVA). The purpose of SSEESS is to work for Through the Rossby Centre, Sweden is engaged in greater Swedish involvement in international interclimate modelling and the development of regional disciplinary research on global environmental and scenarios for use in impact and adaptation studies. The resource issues and simultaneously serve as a reliable Centre also heads a European initiative for future information source for Swedish decision makers. development of high-resolution global climate models. Within the framework of the Arctic Council and the It has recently contributed to the international CMIP5 Swedish Chairmanship in 2011–13, the Swedish Enviproject, which is the primary modelling basis for the ronmental Protection Agency and Formas are funding fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a circum-Arctic project on threshold effects, the assessment. Arctic Resilience Report. This joint project involving Socio-economic research is very wide-ranging, cover- the Arctic states is headed by the Stockholm Environing areas such as impacts of climate change, adaptation ment Institute.

14 1. Executive summary

Systematic observation A growing volume of reports and information offering

In Sweden, there are monitoring systems with great po- advice and guidance on how people can reduce their tential to help bring about systematic, coherent gather- own emissions have become available. ing of information concerning changes in terrestrial The Internet is frequently used for knowledge transsystems. The country systematically collects data on fer and exchange of experience among and within meteorology, hydrology and oceanography, as well as agencies and organisations. Training courses on how monitoring sources and sinks for greenhouse gases and environmental and climate requirements can be imclimate-related effects on ecosystems. Sweden has a posed in procurement are held by a range of providers well-developed system of environmental monitoring at national, regional and local level. Several major conand its measurement series are, in many cases, of unique ferences on climate and energy themes are held in length worldwide. Funding is provided in the form of Sweden every year. grants to government agencies, which contract out There is ample scope in Sweden to ask questions and assignments. express views on an area of knowledge or a policy proposal, through consultation procedures and open meetings, hearings and seminars. Special initiatives are also

1.9 Education, training and public taken to increase public participation in climate work. awareness Between 2002 and 2009, surveys were conducted of

Swedish public attitudes towards, and understanding In Sweden, communication on climate change and re- of, the climate problem. The 2009 survey indicated lated measures is a key part of efforts to reduce emis- that Swedes remain highly prepared to reduce their sions with a climate impact. There are a range of public own greenhouse gas emissions, and want more inforagencies to which those with an interest can turn for mation about how this can be done. It also demoninformation on climate change, action to address it, strated their openness to change with a view to curbing energy issues and so on. Swedish and international cli- emissions resulting from their own lifestyle and conmate-related news is disseminated through news letters sumption. and has helped attract broad media interest in climate change issues. Non-governmental organisations and adult education associations also contribute to public debate on and awareness of these issues. Today, the concepts of climate change and its causes and effects are thoroughly familiar to the general public. In Sweden, preschools, schools and adult education have a clear remit to foster socially, economically and ecologically sustainable development. This remit is formulated in national governance documents such as the Education Act, curricula and syllabuses. Several higher education institutions offer courses on the scientific basics of climate and/or climate-related subjects like energy and forestry. Training on environmental and climate issues is often among the steps taken by companies to achieve environmental certification. The number of public activities with a climate focus has steadily increased since 2005. Climate and energy experts from agencies and organisations are often among the speakers. Municipal energy and climate advisers are an important channel of information to the public, providing advice and support on energy efficiency to households and businesses. Several public agencies and knowledge centres offer online climate information, aimed at pupils of various ages. The issues of climate change, energy efficiency and resource conservation are dealt with under the over arching objective of sustainable development.

1. Executive summary 15

National circumstances

2.1 Government structure (on the basis of Government Bills) and the Govern-

Sweden is a parliamentary, representative democracy ment and its agencies that are responsible for implethat is ruled by a government headed by a prime min- menting the decisions. ister. The Government is appointed by a popularly County administrative boards and municipalities elected parliament, the Riksdag, which is elected every play a key role in climate policy, since they shape and four years. As the national legislature, the Riksdag implement plans for land use, energy management, controls the Government and government agencies, transport and waste. Many Swedish municipalities and must approve political decisions such as Swedish are actively engaged in pursuing targets and followclimate and energy policies. The Government imple- ing action plans to limit greenhouse gas emissions and ments Riksdag decisions, submits new proposals (Bills) adapt society to climate change. to the Riksdag, directs state administration and represents Sweden in the European Union.

Swedish public administration is organised at cen- 2.2 Population profile

tral, regional and local levels. The central level consists The population of Sweden at the end of 2012 was just of a number of agencies 1 serving as the Government’s under 9.6 million, with 23% aged up to 19 and 18% 65 expert bodies and implementing the policies adopted and over (Table 2.1). Since 1990, the mean annual by the Riksdag and Government. For regional and local growth rate has been 0.5% and by 2030 the population public administration, there are 21 county administra- is expected to total 10.7 million. Average population tive boards and 290 municipalities, and some central density is 23 inhabitants per square kilometre, ranging government agencies have regional offices. Swedish from 3/km in northern Sweden to 100/km in the municipalities are autonomous, with boards and coun- south (Statistics Sweden 2013a). cils elected by their respective citizens in separate elections.

As for fulfilling commitments under the United 2.3 Geographic profile

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Sweden extends in a south-south-westerly/northand the Kyoto Protocol, it is the Riksdag that decides north-easterly direction from latitudes 55 to 69

Table 2.1 Sweden’s population profile, with projections (Statistics Sweden 2013b)

Annual Annual increase, increase, 1990– 2009–

1990 2000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012, % 2012, % 2020 2030 2040

Population (million) 8.59 8.88 9.34 9.42 9.48 9.56 0.5 0.8 10.3 10.7 11.01 Aged up to 19 years 24.6 24.1 23.4 23.2 22.95 22.77 23.4 23.4 22.4 (% of population) Aged 65+ years 17.8 17.2 18.10 18.45 18.82 19.13 19.3 21.1 22.8 (% of population) Population density 21.0 21.7 22.8 22.9 23.2 23.4 22.8 23.8 24.4 (inhabitants/km 2 ) 1 In 2013 there were 468 central government agencies in Sweden. There are also local authorities and various companies that exercise public authority.

16 2. National circumstances

8°E 10°E 12°E 14°E 16°E 18°E 20°E 21°E 22°E 24°E 26°E 68°N 68°N 66° N 66°N 64°N 64°N 62°N 62°N Rise in sea level by 2100 (m) 60°N 0.9–1.0 60°N 0.8–0.9 Figure 2.1. Net effect of rise in sea level 0.7–0.8 58°N 0.6–0.7 (minus land rise) in Sweden, assuming a 58°N 0.5–0.6 0.4–0.5 global sea level rise of 1 metre in 100 years.

The land rise estimates are based on the

56°N 0.3–0.4 56° N 0.2–0.3 0.1–0.2 Swedish National Land Survey’s model < ‹ 0.1 8°E 10°E 12°E 14°E 16°E 18°E 20°E NKG2005LU (Ågren & Svensson 2007).

degrees north and from longitudes 11 to 23 degrees tion. Locally, in the mountains near the Norwegian east, with a total area of 450,295 km 2 . Built-up areas border, precipitation reaches 1,500–2,000 mm a year. make up 3% of this total, while forests account for 53%, The lowest annual precipitation, just under 400 mm, farmland 8%, wetlands 9%, heath, moorland and moun- falls along the eastern coasts. tains 10% and water 9% (Statistics Sweden 2008). Sweden’s proximity to the North Atlantic and pre- Southern Sweden is low-lying, with agricultural land vailing south-westerly to westerly winds result in predominating in the far south. The only real mountain a climate that, for the latitude, is mild in the winter chain, with peaks rising to over 2,000 m above sea level, months, but the northernmost part of the country has a is along the Norwegian border in the north-west. sub-Arctic climate with long, cold and snowy winters. Land rise (postglacial rebound) is taking place in most In the period 1961–90 the mean temperature in January of Sweden because of the melting of land ice after the was 0 °C in southernmost Sweden, while the coldest last ice age, but has ceased in the far south (see Fig. 2.1). northern valleys had 17 °C. The maximum daily mean The ongoing rise in sea level is causing substantial July temperature was approximately +17 °C in southerosion along the south coast, which is characterised eastern Sweden and just over 10 °C in the north. by easily eroded soils. Climate change due to future The mean temperature was about 1° higher in the increases in atmospheric temperature will accelerate years 1991–2012 than in 1961–90. The largest rise, this erosion. over 2°, took place in the northern parts of Sweden Forest land is an important natural resource that in winter and the smallest was in autumn, when the provides scope for biobased energy supply. In the past temperature in south-west Sweden remained almost 50 years, farmland has successively given way to other unchanged. Overall, owing to the rise in temperature, land uses, mainly forest land. This has helped to reduce the densely populated areas (including Greater Stockemissions from agriculture and increase carbon se- holm) have undergone a shift from a cold-temperate questration in forest biomass. Besides forests, another to a warm-temperate climate. In the long term, this key natural resource is iron ore, a pillar of Swedish in- should entail a reduced incidence of winters with dustrial production. Abundant flowing watercourses heavy snowfall. However, there may still be major are a significant resource for hydropower production. variations from year to year. Winter 2007/08 was the warmest of all winters since 1860, while those of 2009/10 and 2010/11 were the coldest since the late

2.4 Climate profile 1980s. Precipitation has increased slightly in most of

Passing low-pressure systems bring precipitation that the country. The differences in temperature and preis fairly copious all year round, but heaviest in the cipitation between the periods 1961–90 and 1991– summer and autumn. Annual precipitation is some 2012 are illustrated in Figs. 2.2 to 2.4. 1,000 mm. Since most low-pressure systems move in Extremely severe storms with widespread windthrow across the country from the west or south-west, the (uprooting of trees) are rare, and trends are diffiwestern parts of Sweden receive the most precipita- cult to identify. In January 2005, however, there was

2. National circumstances 17

Figure 2.2 Difference in annual Figure 2.3 Difference in mean Figure 2.4 Difference in annual

mean temperature between winter temperature between precipitation between 1991– 1991–2012 and 1961–90 (°C). 1991–2012 and 1961–90 (°C). 2012 and 1961–90 (%).

a storm with hurricane-force winds in the south of tion. Hydropower accounts for nearly half of Sweden’s Sweden, with by far the most extensive windthrow electricity production. In a normal year (based on the for 100 years. Just two years later, southern Sweden period 1960–2010) 65.5 TWh is generated in Sweden, was hit by another violent storm. These storms cause a where the water inflow can vary by 30 TWh from the temporary reduction in carbon sequestration in forest lowest to the highest figures noted (Swedish Energy biomass. 2013). The relatively cold climate entails high energy Population-weighted Energy Index, Sweden require ments to heat buildings for most of the year, 1.10 with resulting high greenhouse gas emissions. Heating requirements are dependent on outdoor temperature, Energy Index 1.05 wind conditions and insolation, and vary from one year to the next. An energy index that takes these param- 1.00 eters into account and is weighted according to the geographical distribution of the population provides 0.95 a picture of how heating needs have fluctuated from Normalised value year to year (see Fig. 2.5). The years 1990 and 2000 0.90 were very warm, with heating requirements 13–14% below the average for the reference period 1965–95, 0.85 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 while 1996 and 2010 have been the only years since Year 1990 with greater heating requirements (+4%) than in the reference period. Figure 2.5 The Energy Index 2 , weighted according to the Annual precipitation and run-off to the large rivers geographical distribution of the population, showing variin north-west Sweden have a major bearing on the ation in annual heating requirements in Sweden over the water inflow volume for Swedish hydropower produc- period 1990–2012. 2 The Energy Index weights the effects on heating requirements for buildings, over one year, of solar, wind and temperature conditions and the technical energy characteristics of buildings. 18 2. National circumstances

Table 2.2 GDP by expenditure, at constant prices, reference year 2012 (National Institute of Economic Research 2013)

Growth, Growth, Projection Projection 1990–2012 2010–2012

(SEK m) Public consumption 773 216 805 798 840 180 870 799 939 178 949 498 956 482 0.98 1.31 (SEK m)

overall increase in energy use during the period, some

2.5 Economic profile

changes in use within the sectors have taken place. Sweden’s GDP was SEK 3,409 billion in 2010. Per capita Industrial production volume has almost doubled, but at constant prices, with 2012 as the reference year, this industrial energy use has risen by only just over 4%. The makes more than SEK 360,000 (National Institute of residential and service sector has reduced its energy Economic Research 2013, see Table 2.2). use although the aggregate heated floor space both of From 1990 to 2010, the economy grew by an average homes and of commercial and institutional premises of 2.2% a year. The most rapid growth, averaging 3–7% a has increased. The rise in the volume of goods on the year, took place in the periods 1994–95, 1998–2000 and roads is what underlies the rise in energy use by trans- 2004–06 and the year 2010. port (Swedish Transport Administration 2013). Natural resources, such as forest and iron ore, are a

basis for industrial production and, along with the engi n-

eering industry, have brought about a strongly export- 800 oriented economy. Since 1990, exports have grown faster International transport 700 and use for non-energy than imports and the trade balance has been positive. purposes***

600 Losses in nuclear power** 500 Conversion and

2.6 Energy

400 distribution losses,

TWh

excl. nuclear power 300

2.6.1 Energy use

Residential and services 200 Total energy supplied in Sweden has shown a rising Domestic transport* 100 trend since 1970, from some 450 TWh to about 600 Industry 0 TWh from the mid-1990s (see Fig. 2.6 and Table 2.3). A

high proportion of this increase represents conversion 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

and distribution losses associated mainly with nuclear * Data up to and including 1989 include power production, and the remainder goes to final use. international flights. The composition of the energy supply in this period ** Acording to the method used by the United

has been transformed, with crude oil largely being Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) superseded by nuclear power and biofuels. to estimate supply from nuclear power. *** From 1990, data include international flights. Total final energy use has increased by 12% since

1970, and has stood at approximately 450 TWh for the

past five years. These figures relate to industry, domes-

tic transport, residential property and services, inter- Figure 2.6 Sweden’s TPES in 1970–2010, including

national transport, use for non-energy purposes, and conversion and distribution losses (Swedish Energy

conversion and distribution losses. Despite the moderate Agency 2012d).

Table 2.3 Total primary energy supply (TPES) in TWh, 1990–2010

1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

TPES (TWh) 576 599 581 639 617 618 597 563 614 TPES (MWh) per capita 67 68 65 71 68 67 65 60 65

2. National circumstances 19

Sweden’s TPES is based on domestic supply of energy fossil energy to bioenergy for district heating producfrom biofuels, hydropower and, to a lesser extent, tion, there has been a switch from oil to heat pumps or ambient heat from heat pumps, and on imported energy pellets in remaining homes and non-residential premises carriers such as uranium, oil, natural gas, coal and biofu- that are individually heated. els (see Fig. 2.7). In the early 1970s an energy policy was introduced to reduce Sweden’s dependence on oil. Almost 40% of 70 petroleum products have now been largely superseded 60 Waste heat by non-fossil energy sources, and with national incen- Heat pumps 50 tives the share of bioenergy has risen to 20%. Electric boilers 40 Biofuels, waste, TWh peat 30 Thermal coal, incl. 700 Wind power blast-furnace gas 20 600 Nuclear power, gross** Natural gas, incl. 10 gas oil 500 Hydropower, gross* 0 Oil Heat pumps in 400 district heating plants 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

TWh

300 Biofuels, peat 200 Coal and coke Figure 2.8 Energy supply for district heating, 1970–2010 Natural gas, town gas 100 Crude oil and (Swedish Energy Agency 2012d). 0 petroleum products

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

* Incl. wind power up to and including 1996. Between 1990 and 2010, the share of renewable ** According to the method used by UNECE to energy in Sweden rose by 15 percentage points to 48% estimate supply from nuclear power. (see Fig. 2.9). The renewable energy sources contributing to this trend were hydropower, wind power, by- Figure 2.7 Sweden’s energy supply in 1970–2010, excl. products used in the paper and pulp industry, and bio-

net electricity exports (Swedish Energy Agency 2012d).

fuels for district heating production.

A major shift has taken place in energy supply to homes 60 and to commercial and institutional premises. A con- 50 sistent, sustained policy to extend infrastructure for 40 district heating production and distribution was pur- 30 sued from the late 1960s to the mid-1990s. The main

Per cent

motive for this investment, which involved replacing 20 numerous small heating plants with large, centralised 10 installations to heat buildings, was to improve air 0 quality in urban areas. The infrastructure for district 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 heating was a precondition for environmentally sound 1991 heating of buildings based on biofuels. It was also essen tial to enable the national policy instruments for Figure 2.9 Share of renewable energy used in Sweden, renewable energy to bring about the extensive phase- 1990–2010 (Swedish Energy Agency 2012d). out of fossil fuels to heat buildings that has been achieved. By 2010, production of district heating had risen by Between 2000 and 2010, the price of fuel oil rose 356% since 1970 and 62% since 1990 (see Fig. 2.8). At by 77% while that of wood chips remained relatively the same time, the share of biofuels in production had stable at a low level (see Fig. 2.10). Carbon dioxide and grown from 2% to 25% and 63% in 1970–90 and 1970– energy taxes had a substantial impact on fossil fuel 2010 respectively. prices, which helped to make biofuels competitive for In addition to the extensive changeover from heat- heat production in district heating and for heating ing of individual buildings to district heating and from individual buildings.

20 2. National circumstances

0.90 until 2000. In the subsequent decade, the figure fluc-

0.80 Natural gas, tuated between 145 and 150 TWh. The Swedish elec- 0.70 industry tricity system is linked with the other Nordic systems, 0.60 Electricity, industry making efficient use of the Nordic countries’ power 0.50 0.40 Coal plants possible. Consequently, Sweden’s annual elec-

SEK/kWh

Wood chips, 0.30 tricity balance alternates between net imports and industry 0.20 net exports (see Fig. 2.12). In years of low precipi- Fuel oil no. 1 0.10 Fuel oil tation and thus low hydropower production, and when

nos. 2–5 0.00 nuclear power cannot be produced at normal capacity,

the deficit is offset by electricity imports; and when

Sweden has an ample supply of hydro and nuclear Figure 2.10 Real energy prices for industry in Sweden, power, this country’s electricity is exported to neigh-

including energy taxes, 1986–2011, expressed in SEK/kWh,

bouring countries. In the 1990s, oil-based condensing

2010 prices (Swedish Energy Agency 2012d).

power was used to compensate for hydro and nuclear

power deficits.

2.6.2 Electricity supply 15

Of total electricity production in 2011, hydropower

accounted for 45%, nuclear power 40% and wind power 10 net imports 4%, while biofuels and fossil-based production made 5 up the remaining 11% (see Fig. 2.11). In the early 1970s

hydropower, supplemented by oil-condensing power, 0

TWh

dominated production. The expansion of nuclear and 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -5 to some extent hydropower up to 1985 largely eliminnet exports ated oil-fired power generation. Since then, the use of -10

oil for electricity production has continued to de-

-15 crease, except in 1996 – a cold year with extremely

low water inflow for hydropower production – when Figure 2.12 Sweden’s annual net imports (+) and net decommissioned oil-condensing power plants were

exports (−) of electricity, 1970–2010 (Swedish Energy

temporarily restarted. Ample natural watercourses

Agency 2012d).

for hydropower production, combined with national

energy policy and investments in non-fossil-fuel-based

power production, have enabled Sweden to produce

electricity by almost entirely fossil-free means. 2.7 Building stock and urban structure

180

2.7.1 Building stock and residential floor area

160 Gas turbines In 2012 there were 2,015,000 single-family houses for

140 Condensing power year-round occupation and 2,536,000 apartments in

120 Combined heat and multi-dwelling buildings (Statistics Sweden 2013c). power (CHP) 100 Of the current stock of apartments, 78% were built Industrial back TWh 80 pressure before 1980. Total floor space in single-family houses,

Nuclear power 60 including weekend and holiday homes, amounted to

Wind power 40 (from 1997) 285 million square metres. For multi-dwelling build-

ings, floor area totalled 168 million m 20 Hydropower and .

wind power* 0 A 17% increase in the number of apartments and

a 7% increase in the number of single-family houses 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 took place between 1990 and 2012. In the latter, * Wind power and hydropower are reported in the same the average residential floor area rose from 125.1 to category up to and including 1996. 145.9 m in the period 1990–2012 (Statistics Sweden

Figure 2.11 Sweden’s electricity production by power source, 2013c). The average residential floor area for all single-

1970–2010 (Swedish Energy Agency 2012d). family houses for year-round occupation was 124.7

m in 2012 (Statistics Sweden 2013c). Between 1990

Between 1970 and 1987, electricity use rose by 5% a and 2011, average living space increased from 41 to

year. The rise then slowed to an annual average of 0.3% just over 56 m per capita (Statistics Sweden 2013e).

2. National circumstances 21

In 2012 there were 94,034 industrial buildings in Swe- 100% 90% den. Altogether, these premises contained floor space 80% of 127 million m 2 (Statistics Sweden 2013c). 70% Total floor space in other taxable non-residen- 60% 2 1990 tial premises was 91 million m (Statistics Sweden 50% 2000 2013c). This figure does not include the floor area of 40% 2011 schools, hospitals and other buildings for key public 30%

services. 20%

10%

2.7.2 Energy use in buildings

0% Oil District Electric Gas Biofuels Final energy use in residential and service-sector heating heating buildings, in which energy for heating predominates, Figure 2.14 Use of energy for heating in multi-dwelling

decreased between 1990 and 2011 even after weather buildings in 1990, 2000 and 2011 (Swedish Energy

correction of energy use. On the other hand, use of Agency 2012a).

electricity for non-heating purposes increased. House- 140

hold electricity use increased slightly, while the increase 120

in energy used for building services was relatively 100 large (Swedish Energy Agency 2013). 2 80 The use of energy for heating and hot water has Single-family kWh/m 60 houses changed since 1990. As Fig. 2.13 shows, the use of oil Multi-dwelling 40 has decreased sharply in single-family houses, in favour buildings Commercial and of district heating, biofuels and electric heating. 20 institutional premises For multi-dwelling buildings, too, there has been a 0 1981–1990 1991–2000 2001–2011 marked decrease in oil and increase in district heating Year built (see Fig. 2.14). In this type of housing, district heating Figure 2.15 Use of energy for heating of residential and accounted for more than 90% of energy use for heating

commercial/institutional premises built in 1981–90,

and hot water in 2011 (Swedish Energy Agency 2012a).

1991–2000 and 2001–11 (Swedish Energy Agency

For commercial and institutional premises, the pro-

2012a, b, c).

portion of district heating was 75% in 2011 (Swedish

Energy Agency 2012b).

2.7.3 Urban structure

50% In Sweden, as in other countries, migration from rural 45% to urban areas is under way. In 2010, 85% of the popu- 40% lation lived in towns and cities. Urban areas amounted 35% 30% to 537,615 ha, which was 1.3% of Sweden’s land area 1990 25% (Statistics Sweden 2010). 2000 20% Between 1960 and 2005, the urban area increased by 2011 15% 54% and the urban population by 47%. Accordingly,

10% more land per capita was used for housing, infrastruc- 5% ture and services. Between 2005 and 2010, population 0% Oil District Electric Gas Biofuels density in towns and cities rose from 1,446 to 1,491 heating heating inhabitants per km 2. Figure 2.13 Use of energy for heating in single-family

houses in 1990, 2000 and 2011 (Swedish Energy

Agency 2012c). 2.8 Industry

Average energy efficiency of newly produced single- Industrial added value accounted for just over 20% of

family houses has improved. In homes built in the added value in the entire business sector in 2010 (Sta-

period 2001–11, average energy use is 107 kWh/m 2 . tistics Sweden 2013e, see Fig. 2.16). Added value in the

This may be compared with 130 kWh/m 2 in homes metal products, machinery and transport equipment

built in 1991–2000. In new multi-dwelling buildings indus tries (C25–C30) accounted for nearly 40% of ag-

2 the figure is 126 kWh/m , which is the same as for this gregate industrial added value, the construction indus-

category of housing built in the 1980s and 1990s (see try (F41–F43) for 25% and manufacture of petroleum,

Fig. 2.15). chemical, rubber and plastic products (C19–C22) for

3 Corresponding to C10–C33 and F41–F43 in the Swedish Standard Industrial Classification 2007 (SNI 2007).

22 2. National circumstances

just over 15%. Swedish industry is characteristically 120 based more on raw materials than in many other coun- 100 tries. For example, the extensive forest industry (wood 80

Total gas emissions. 20 Billion tonne-kilometres Food, beverage and tobacco 0 6% industries (C10–C12) 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 10% Wood, pulp, paper and printing 25% industries, publishing (C16–C18) Figure 2.18 Trends in goods transport activity, 1970–2011 Petroleum, chemical, rubber and 16% (Transport Analysis 2013). plastic products (C19–C22) Non-metallic mineral products (C23) In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, the rapid rise Manufacture of basic metals (C24) in passenger travel has been offset by more energy- 4% 2% 37% Metal products, machinery and efficient cars and increased use of renewable fuels, transport equipment industries (C25–C30 which have resulted in a decrease in emissions per pas- Construction industry (F41–F43) senger-kilometre. The efficiency of freight transport also improved in the 1990s, but this trend levelled Figure 2.16 Distribution of industrial (C10–C33, off and since 2000 the energy use and carbon dioxide F41–F43) added value, 2010. Swedish Standard emissions of freight transport have grown along with Industrial Classification (SNI) designations in transport activity. brackets (Statistics Sweden 2013f). In 2011 petrol and diesel accounted for 93% of the energy used by transport, while the remainder consisted of biofuels (Swedish Energy Agency 2012e, see Fig. 2.19). Use of petrol has been decreasing since

2.9 Transport 2002, partly owing to the blending of 5% ethanol in

Domestic transport is dominated by road traffic. Sev- the fuel, but also because of greater energy efficiency eral factors affect greenhouse gas emissions from traf- and the growing market share of diesel vehicles in refic, especially transport volume and the technology lation to petrol-driven ones. More diesel vehicles and used. Transport activity for passengers and goods alike increased goods transport have, on the other hand, has increased since 1970, but the trends are somewhat brought about a rise in the use of diesel as fuel. different (see Figs. 2.17 and 2.18). For goods transport, Use of biofuels – biogas, pure and low-blend FAME road transport and shipping account for roughly equal (fatty acid methyl ester), ethanol and HVO (hydroproportions while rail represents a smaller share. The treated vegetable oil) – amounted to 7.0% of energy past few years’ fluctuations in economic trends have use by road transport in 2011 (Swedish Energy Agency exerted more influence on freight than on passenger 2013). The rise has been rapid since 2000, initially owing

Total road 70.0 -kilometres 100 Total rail 60.0 80 Domestic aviation Biofuels 50.0

TWh

60 Ferries Diesel (excl. low-blend) 40.0

40 Pedestrians, Petrol (excl. low-blend) 30.0 cyclists, mopeds Billion passenger 20 20.0 Total 10.0 0 0.0

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Figure 2.17 Trends in passenger transport activity, Figure 2.19 Use of petrol, diesel and biofuels by road 1970–2011 (Transport Analysis 2013). transport in Sweden (Swedish Energy Agency 2012e).

2. National circumstances 23

a rise in the sale of E85 (containing 85% ethanol) for The quantity of household waste treated in Sweden flexible-fuel ethanol vehicles and also, since 2005, an in- has increased to just over 4.3 million tonnes, according creased admixture of biodiesel in diesel fuel. to Swedish Waste Management (2012). Since 2001, there has been an 11% increase in volume. In terms of household waste per capita in the years 2001–11, an

2.10 Waste upward trend is evident up to 2007, when the figure

Approximately 118 million tonnes (Mt) of waste was per capita was 493 kg, followed by a three-year downgenerated in Sweden in 2010 (Swedish Environmental ward trend. This was reversed in 2011, when the av- Protection Agency 2012). The categories with the lar- erage inhabitant generated 459 kg of household waste, gest volumes were mining and mineral waste (89 Mt), and it is likely that this reversal mainly reflected the soils and dredging spoils (8 Mt), metallic waste (2.5 improvement in economic trends that year. Mt), wood waste (2 Mt), combustion waste, i.e. ashes Materials recovery from household waste has in- (1.5 Mt) and paper and cardboard waste (just under creased by 13% since 2001. In 2011, materials were 1.5 Mt). Accordingly, 76% of this waste was generated recovered from 1.4 Mt (33%) of household waste, of in the mining and quarrying industry. The aggregate which just under 1.1 Mt consisted of packaging and volume is affected by economic trends and fluctua- recyclable paper (newspapers). tions. Larger quantities of waste mean that a growing Biological treatment of waste, except for waste water amount requires management. However, since the ma- sludge, is increasing and takes place at 26 composting terial and energy content of waste are used to a higher facilities and 21 mixed-waste digestion plants. The degree and the technology of waste management has latter receive food and slaughter waste, in particular, improved, the overall environmental impact of waste and produce most biogas after sewage treatment management has nonetheless decreased. plants. Smaller quantities of food waste are also re- Owing to Sweden’s new policy objectives and asso- ceived for digestion at sewage treatment plants. In ciated instruments, landfilling of waste has decreased digestion, both biogas and biofertiliser are obtained. sharply in the past decade to just under 1% of house- The biogas is used mainly as a vehicle fuel, since there hold waste today (in 2001 the proportion was 21%) (see is a growing demand for renewable transport fuels Fig. 2.20). The remainder is sent for materials recovery, and, moreover, using it in this way affords the greatest incinerated with energy recovery or treated biologi- environmental benefit. Of the volume of biofertiliser cally (composted or digested). If industrial and opera- produced, amounting to 594,000 tonnes, more than tional waste (not mining waste) are included, 43% goes 90% was returned to farmland in 2011. to materials recovery, 28% is incinerated with energy In 2011 there were 30 incineration plants for houserecovery and 13% goes to landfill. Materials recovery hold waste outside industry. These plants produce both includes various categories of material, such as metal, district heating and electricity. Half of the heating repaper, plastic and glass, and also use of waste for con- quirement in Sweden’s building stock is met by district struction purposes. heating, and in 2011 waste incineration accounted for 9,600 GWh (18%) of the total heat energy supplied and Household waste collected (Mt/year) a further 3,665 GWh of electric energy supplied. Recovery of methane gas takes place from 46 active 4.5 PRODUCER RESPONSIBILITY and 11 disused landfills. In 2011, 270 GWh of land- 4 Materials recovery fill gas (18% of total biogas energy) was collected and 3.5 3 used mainly for heating, but also for electricity pro- 2.5 Biological treatment duction and as a vehicle fuel. Some landfill gas is flared 2 to further reduce emissions of methane, a consider- Incineration with energy recovery 1.5 ably stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. 1 Reduced landfilling of waste and improved collec- 0.5 Landfill tion of landfill gas are factors that have contributed 0 to a fall in greenhouse gas emissions from the waste 7 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 LANDFILL BAN, LANDFILL BAN, sector. Increased materials recovery generally means LANDFILL TAX COMBUSTIBLE ORGANIC MATERIALS MATERIALS that both energy and materials are saved at the production stage, and this helps to reduce emissions fur- Figure 2.20 Volume trends of household waste treated ther. In addition, waste incineration with energy rein Sweden, 1992–2011, under the influence of policy covery results in a reduction in the use of fossil fuels instruments adopted. in the electricity and heating sectors.

24 2. National circumstances

2.11 Agriculture

The area of arable land left fallow, which shows

annual variation, was slightly lower in 2012 than in The total area of agricultural land in Sweden in 2012 1990. Total crop production has fallen by some 15% was 3.0 million hectares, which is equivalent to some since 1990 (see Table 2.5). 7% of the country’s total land area. Farmland com- In 2012 there were 1.5 million cattle, 0.6m sheep prises both arable and grazing land. The area under and lambs, and 1.4m pigs (see Table 2.6). The number cultivation has shrunk by roughly 8% since 1990. The of cattle has fallen steadily since the 1980s, and detrend towards fewer, larger farming enterprises has been clined by 13% in the period 1990–2012. The number under way for many decades and the period 1990– of dairy cows has fallen sharply, while that of cows 2012 was no exception. The predominant use of arable used for calf rearing has risen. Sheep and lamb proland is cultivation of forage crops, green fodder and duction has increased, especially in 2005–12. Pig cereals. Since 2000, there has been a rise in cultivation numbers continue to decline, and have fallen by 40% of forage and green fodder crops at the expense of since 1990. cereal growing (see Table 2.4).

Table 2.4 Breakdown of agricultural land for farms with more than 2 ha of arable land (’000 ha)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Forage and green fodder 918 1 059 921 1 080 1 159 1 175 1 195 1 195 1 177 crops

rape

Unspecified arable land .. .. 80 32 8 7 11 10 10 Unused arable land 46 60 .. 2 0 0 .. .. ..

Total area of arable land 2 845 2 767 2 706 2 703 2 632 2 643 2 634 2 619 2 608

Grazing land and hay 332 425 .. 513 458 436 452 447 441 meadows

Total area of farmland 3 176 3 192 .. 3 216 3 089 3 080 3 085 3 066 3 049

Table 2.5 Crop production in Sweden (tonnes)

1990 2012 Change (tonnes) Change, %

Forage and green fodder crops 5 219 000 4 751 500 −467 500 −9 Cereals 6 211 300 5 070 500 −1 140 800 −18 Oilseed rape and turnip rape 380 110 321 900 −58 210 −15 Potatoes 1 186 100 805 400 −380 700 −32 Sugar beet 2 775 500 2 485 600 (2011) –289 900 −10

Total crop production 15 772 010 13 434 900 −2 337 110 −15

Table 2.6 Livestock numbers (’000)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2. National circumstances 25

Table 2.7 Livestock production in Sweden (tonnes)

1990 2012 Change (tonnes) Change, %

Table 2.8 Sales of mineral fertiliser expressed as nitrogen nutrient (’000 tonnes)

1989/1990 1994/1995 1999/00 2004/05 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Nitrogen (N) 225 198 189.4 161.6 186.5 142.4 168 170 148.1

Thanks to increased productivity, the quantity of by the landowners, and this land includes areas of high milk produced has not shown as large a decrease as the natural and cultural value or of importance for recrenumber of dairy cows (see Table 2.7). ation and outdoor activities (Swedish Forest Agency Total use of mineral fertiliser has decreased over 2012). a long period, and in 2011/12 was at its lowest level Increased demand for forest raw materials from the since the 1960s. Owing to rising cereal prices, a certain forest industry brought about a sharp rise in felling in upturn may be noted in 2008–10 when applying more 1990–2011 (see Fig. 2.21). The volume felled varied fertiliser became profitable. Since then, however, the greatly from year to year because of two storms, Gudrun long-term trend of declining sales has continued (see (2005) and Per (2007). Gudrun, the more severe of the Table 2.8). One reason for this decline is decreasing two, brought down some 80% of the normal annual cereal cultivation. Sales are also affected by changes in volume felled in Sweden. Despite increased felling, cereal and mineral fertiliser prices. The result in terms the aggregate standing volume of timber rose from of greenhouse gas emissions has been lower release of some 2.8 billion m 3 in 1990 to 3.3 billion m 3 in 2009 nitrous oxide. (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences 2012). Since 1990, the arable area, number of cattle and Total use of biofuels, excluding waste, rose by 56 quantities of mineral fertiliser and manure used have TWh between 1990 and 2010 and now accounts for decreased, with falling methane and nitrous oxide 118 TWh. The area of regeneration felling in which emissions as a result. forest residues were used for energy purposes was small at the beginning of the 1990s. Since then, it has successively expanded to some 80,000 ha in 2010.

2.12 Forestry Wood ash is recycled to forest land for the purpose of

Sweden’s forest land amounts to 28.3 million hec- counteracting acidifying, nutrient-depleting effects on tares, corresponding to 69% of the total land area. It the soil that occur when biomass is removed. In 2010, is for this area that greenhouse gas emissions and remov- ash recycling was carried out on 10,158 ha (Swedish als in forests are reported. Fifty per cent of forest Forest Agency 2012). land is owned by individuals, 25% by privately owned limited companies, 6% by other private owners and Million m 3 standing volume incl. bark 19% by state-owned limited companies, the central 140 government and other public owners (Swedish Forest 120 Agency 2012). The area of forest land excluded from forestry is 7.1 100 million ha, protected through various regulations. Al- 80 together, 4.0 million ha of forest land is unproductive 60 land outside national parks, nature reserves, habitat 40 protection areas and areas subject to nature conserva- 20 tion agreements. The area of productive forest land 4 0 is 23.2 million ha. Of this total, 0.8 million ha, the 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 greater part of it montane forests in national parks, nature reserves and nature conservation areas, is for- Figure 2.21 Estimated gross annual volume felled in mally protected 5 . Roughly 1.2 million ha of Sweden’s Sweden (Swedish Forest Agency 2012). productive forest area has been voluntarily set aside 4 Forest land with an annual production capacity of at least 1 m 3 of timber per hectare. 5 National parks, nature reserves, nature conservation areas, habitat protection areas and areas subject to nature conservation agreements.

26 2. National circumstances

2.13 References for Chapter 2

Swedish Energy Agency (2012c). Energistatistik för småhus (Energy statistics for one- and two-dwelling Ågren, J., & Svensson, R. (2007). Postglacial Land buildings) 2011, ES2012:04. Uplift Model and System Definition for the New Swedish Height System RH 2000. Reports in Geodesy and Geo- Swedish Energy Agency (2012d). Energiläget 2012. graphical Information Systems. National Land Survey of Sweden, LMV Report 2007:4, Gävle. Swedish Energy Agency (2012e). Transportsektorns energianvändning 2011 , ES2012:01. National Institute of Economic Research (2013). Konjunkturläget, augusti 2013, www.konj.se, accessed Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (2012). Sept. 2013. Avfall i Sverige, Rapport 6520.

Statistics Sweden (2008). Markanvändningen i Sverige Swedish Forest Agency (2012). Skogsstatistisk årsbok (Land Use in Sweden) , fifth edition. Stockholm. 2012 (Swedish Statistical Yearbook of Forestry 2012).

Statistics Sweden (2010). Tätorter. Statistiskt med- Swedish Transport Administration (2013). delande MI 38 SM 1101. Vägtrafikens klimatutsläpp minskade 2012, Press release, 7 March 2013. Statistics Sweden (2013a). Befolkning. SCB’s statistical database, www.scb.se/ accessed May 2013. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (2012). Skogsdata 2012. Statistics Sweden (2013b). Befolkningsframskrivningar, aktuella prognoser. SCB’s statistical database, Swedish Waste Management (2012). Hushållsavfall www.scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Statistikdatabasen, i siffror, kommun- och länsstatistik 2011. Rapport accessed May 2013. U2012:18.

Statistics Sweden (2013c). Kalkylerat bostadsbestånd år Transport Analysis (2013). Transportarbete, 2012, www.scb.se, accessed June 2013. www.trafa.se, accessed May 2013.

Statistics Sweden (2013d). Allmän fastighetstaxering 2012. SCB’s statistical database, www.scb.se/ accessed June 2013.

Statistics Sweden (2013e). Hushållens ekonomi. SCB’s statistical database, www.scb.se/ accessed June 2013.

Statistics Sweden (2013f). Nationalräkenskaper detaljerade årsberäkningar 1950–2011, vissa data 1950– 2012 (publ. 2013-09-13), www.scb.se/ accessed May 2013.

Swedish Energy (2013). Nordisk elproduktion påverkas av ”våtår” och ”torrår”, www.svenskenergi.se/ accessed Oct. 2013.

Swedish Energy Agency (2012a). Energistatistik för flerbostadshus (Energy statistics for multi-dwelling buildings) 2011, ES2012:05.

Swedish Energy Agency (2012b). Energistatistik för lokaler (Energy statistics for non-residential premises) 2011, ES2012:06.

2. National circumstances 27

Greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2011

The information in this chapter is a summary of the Million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent 2013 inventory of emissions and removals of green- 100 house gases, submitted under the UN Framework 80 Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Proto- 60 col (National Inventory Report Sweden 2013). 40

3.1 Total emissions and removals of

20

greenhouse gases

0 -20 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total greenhouse gas emissions and removals in Sweden between 1990 and 2011, broken down by sector, -40 are shown in Fig. 3.1. In 2011, Sweden emitted 61.4 -60 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO 2 Energy Industrial processes Solvent use Agriculture eq) of greenhouse gases. Compared with 2010, that Land use (LULUCF) Waste represents a reduction of 6%, and compared with 1990 Figure 3.1 Total greenhouse gas emissions from different a reduction of 16%. Apart from high levels in 2010,

sectors.

the trend in Swedish greenhouse gas emissions since 1998 has been downward. Emission levels have varied between a low of 59.3 Mt CO 2 eq in 2009 and a high amounted to 6.7 Mt CO 2 eq, or 11% of the total. Of of 78.3 Mt CO 2 eq in 1996. Between-year variations these emissions, 73% originated from the agricultural are largely due to fluctuations in temperature and sector. Emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases, reprecipi tation and to the economic situation. ported in the industrial processes sector, made up 2%, The net sink attributable to the land use, land-use or 1.1 Mt CO 2 eq, of aggregate greenhouse gas emischange and forestry (LULUCF) sector has varied over sions. the period. In 2011 it amounted to 35 Mt CO 2 eq, 2% which corresponds to 57% of total greenhouse gas emissions. 11% The breakdown between the greenhouse gases 8% CO 2 carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide CH (N O) and fluorinated greenhouse gases (HFCs, PFCs 4 2 and SF 6 ), in carbon dioxide equivalent terms, is shown N 2 0 79% in Fig. 3.2. In 2011, carbon dioxide made up 79% of HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 greenhouse gases emitted, or 48.7 Mt. The majority (88%) of carbon dioxide emissions come from the energy sector. Emissions of methane in 2011 totalled 5.0 Mt CO 2 eq (8% of emissions), the main sources Figure 3.2 Greenhouse gas emissions in 2011 (excl. being agriculture and waste. Nitrous oxide emissions LULUCF) by gas, in carbon dioxide equivalent terms.

28 3. Greenhouse gas inventory 1990 – 2011

3.2 Emissions and removals of

increased in 2011, compared with 1990. Agricultural emissions show a downward trend over the period.

greenhouse gases by sector

The largest sources of emissions in 2011 were domes- 3.2.1 Energy industries

tic transport (33%), manufacturing industries (26%, of The energy industries sector (see Fig. 3.5) includes prowhich fuel combustion contributed 15% and industrial duction of electricity and district heating, refineries and processes 11%), energy industries (electricity and heat the manufacture of solid fuels. Sweden’s energy indusproduction, refineries and manufacture of solid fuels) tries are based largely on hydropower, nuclear power and (17%) and agriculture (13%), as shown in Fig. 3.3. biofuels. Fossil fuels serve as a complement, often as a marginal fuel in cold weather. Greenhouse gas emissions 0% therefore vary widely, depending on weather conditions 2% 0% 3% in different years. In 2011, the sector emitted 10.7 Mt Domestic transport CO 2 eq of greenhouse gases, or 17% of the national total.

Solvent use 8 Military 6 2 Figure 3.3 Greenhouse gas emissions in 2011 (excl. land 0 use), by sector. 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Manufacture of solid fuels Refineries Apart from the sharp fluctuations of the last few District heating production Electricity production years, there is a clear downward trend in emissions – Figure 3.5 Greenhouse gas emissions from the energy see Fig. 3.4, which shows total emissions broken down

industries.

by sector. The largest reductions in absolute terms are due to the replacement of oil with biofuels for the Production of district heat is responsible for the heating of homes and commercial and institutional largest greenhouse gas emissions in this sector (5.3 Mt premises. Emissions from the energy industries sector CO 2 eq in 2011). Between 1990 and 2011, as the dishave varied from year to year and no clear trend can be trict heating system expanded, the amount of heat discerned. Industrial use of energy has decreased since produced more than doubled. This expansion was 1997, and emissions from industrial processes show a based largely on biofuels, however, with the result that slight decline. Emissions in the transport sector had emissions of greenhouse gases remain at roughly the same level as in 1990. Fossil fuels are used as a comple- Million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent ment to biofuels. Cold winters (like those of 1996 and 80 2010 in particular) increase the demand for district heating, leading to higher emission levels. Unusually 60 mild winters (as in 2000) have the opposite effect, re- 40 ducing heating demand and greenhouse gas emissions. 20 Variations from one year to another can therefore be dramatic: in 2011, for example, emissions fell by 16% 0 compared with 2010. 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -20 Emissions from electricity production (2.9 Mt CO 2 eq -40 in 2011) show a similar pattern. Most of the electricity Domestic transport Industrial combustion generated in Sweden comes from hydroelectric and nu- Industrial processes Energy industries clear power plants. Fossil fuels are burnt as a comple- Other sectors* Agriculture Waste Fugitive emissions ment when the demand for electricity exceeds normal Solvent use Military production. This happens, for example, on cold winter Land use (LULUCF) days. The high emissions of 1996 were due to a cold Figure 3.4 Greenhouse gas emissions and removals (incl. winter combined with a poor supply of hydropower reland use), by sector. sulting from a dry summer. Since 1996 opportunities to * i.e. fuel combustion in the commercial/institutional, residential, and agriculture/ forestry/fisheries sectors.

3. Greenhouse gas inventory 1990 – 2011 29

import and export electricity have improved consider- fuels and electricity are now its most important sources ably, and variations have therefore been less pronounced of energy. Since 2002 emissions have shown a downward in recent years. In 2010, emissions rose owing to cold trend, one reason being the replacement of fossil fuels winters and a reduced supply of nuclear power. In 2011 with biofuels. The biggest change has occurred in the they fell again, thanks to a good supply of hydropower, pulp and paper industry, where the use of biofuels is (somewhat) increased production of nuclear power, and most common. warmer weather. The last recession saw a marked fall in emissions, Refinery emissions remained relatively constant especially in 2009. In 2010 they rose again, owing to over the period under review, at around 2 Mt CO 2 eq. higher volumes of production and demand for energy. Emissions from the manufacture of solid fuels are a In 2011, reduced energy demand and a modest decrease minor category, amounting to some 0.3 Mt CO 2 eq in production in some industries led to a decline in annually. emissions compared with 2010.

3.2.2 Industrial combustion 3.2.3 Transport

Greenhouse gas emissions from fuel combustion in Million tonnes of CO equivalent 2 manufacturing industries were 9.5 Mt CO 2 eq in 25 2011 (see Fig. 3.6), or 15% of national emissions. That is 21% lower than in 1990. Emissions from this sector 20 have varied up and down over the years, chiefly owing to economic fluctuations. In recent years (2002–11) 15 there has been a downward trend, partly due to a 10 shift from oil to electricity and biofuels.

Million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent 16 0 14 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 12 Other: Mobile machinery and off-road vehicles Domestic shipping 10 Railways 8 Road transport, cars 6 Road transport, mopeds and motorcycles Road transport, light goods vehicles 4 Road transport, heavy goods vehicles and buses 2 Domestic aviation 0 1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 Figure 3.7 Greenhouse gas emissions from transport. All industries: off-road vehicles and mobile machinery Other industries Food processing, beverages and tobacco Pulp, paper and print In 2011, emissions of greenhouse gases from domestic Chemicals Non-ferrous metals transport amounted to 20 Mt CO 2 eq, which is a third Iron and steel of the national total. Emissions were 4% higher in 2011 than in 1990. Since 2005, however, there has been a Figure 3.6 Greenhouse gas emissions from industrial slight downward trend (see Fig. 3.7). combustion. The majority of emissions come from cars (11.7 Mt CO 2 eq) and heavy-duty vehicles (6.7 Mt CO 2 eq). Emis- A small number of energy-intensive industries ac- sions from cars have fallen by 9% compared with 1990, count for a large share of greenhouse gas emissions in despite growth in traffic. This is a result of more energythis sector. Iron and steel (16% of emissions), pulp and efficient vehicles and greater use of biofuels. The depaper (13%) and chemicals (13%) are responsible for crease for cars is offset by a 44% rise in emissions from almost equally large shares of the total. The heteroge- heavy-duty vehicles over the same period. The increase neous subsector ‘Other industries’ accounted for 52% in transport activity involving heavy vehicles is due of emissions in 2011. partly to the restructuring of society towards special- Over a long period, industry has reduced its use of isation, centralisation and globalisation, resulting in oil and increased its consumption of electricity. Bio- goods being transported over ever greater distances.

30 3. Greenhouse gas inventory 1990 – 2011

Greenhouse gas emissions from domestic aviation Emissions from mobile combustion are very low, but were 0.5 Mt CO 2 eq in 2011, 22% down on 1990 rising. levels. The decline is due to more efficient aircraft and

higher cabin factors, but also to stricter security re- 3.2.5 Military

quirements, which have made it more complicated and Emissions from military transport have fallen sharply time-consuming to fly, reducing domestic aviation’s since 1990, reflecting restructuring of the Swedish advantages over rail and road transport. Armed Forces over the period. In 2011, emissions For domestic shipping, emissions in 2011 were esti- amounted to 0.2 Mt CO 2 eq (see Fig. 3.9). mated at 0.5 Mt CO 2 eq. Over the period, emissions from this source varied in a pattern reflecting fluctu- Million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent ations in the economic situation. No trend can be dis- 1.2 cerned. 1.0 Sweden’s railways are largely electrified, with only a 0.8 few smaller lines served by diesel-hauled trains. Emis- 0.6 sions from rail transport have been almost halved since 0.4 1990 and now stand at just 0.07 Mt CO 2 eq. 0.2

3.2.4 Other sectors

0.0 Greenhouse gas emissions from ‘Other sectors’, i.e. fuel 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 combustion in the commercial and institutional, resi- Military transport dential, and agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors, Figure 3.9 Greenhouse gas emissions from military come primarily from stationary combustion (heating in

transport.

homes, non-residential premises, agriculture, forestry and fisheries), but also from mobile combustion (mo-

bile machinery, off-road vehicles and fishing boats). In 3.2.6 Fugitive emissions

2011, emissions were 3.7 Mt CO 2 eq, or 6% of the na- Fugitive emissions are a minor category, accounting for tional total. 1 Mt CO 2 eq or 1.6% of national emissions. Sources include refineries, flaring in the iron and steel industry, Million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent and handling of fuels, for example at filling stations. 12 Emissions rose sharply in 2006 owing to the commissioning of two hydrogen production facilities, an in- 10 crease that is clearly evident in Fig. 3.10. 8 6 Million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent 1.2 4 1.0 2 0.8 0 0.6 2001 2004 2005 2007 2011 0.4 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2006 2008 2009 2010 0.2 Commercial and Residential Agriculture, forestry, institutional fisheries 0.0 Figure 3.8 Greenhouse gas emissions from ‘Other sectors’. 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Solid fuels, flaring of gas Fugitive emissions, oil Fugitive emissions, natural gas Flaring of oil and natural gas Since 1990, emissions have fallen by 67%, mainly owing Figure 3.10 Fugitive emissions. to lower emissions from heating of homes and premises (see Fig. 3.8). There are several reasons for this trend: the shift from oil-based to district and electric heating, increased use of heat pumps and pellet-fired boilers, and measures to improve energy efficiency. Another contributory factor behind the positive trend is the mild weather experienced most years since 1990.

3. Greenhouse gas inventory 1990 – 2011 31

3.2.7 Industrial processes Million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent

Emissions of greenhouse gases from industrial processes 0.35 0.30 totalled 6.7 Mt CO 2 eq in 2011, or 11% of national emis- 0.25 sions. This represents a rise of 5% since 1990 (see Fig. 0.20 0.15 3.11). 0.10 0.05 0.00 Million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 8 Other use of solvents and other products 6 Vehicle industry, paint manufacturing and rubber industry 5 Degreasing and dry-cleaning 4 Paint application 3 2 Figure 3.12 Greenhouse gas emissions from solvent and 1

other product use.

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Consumption of fluorinated greenhouse gases senting 13% of national emissions. Total emissions from Pulp and paper, food and drink agriculture have fallen by 14% since 1990 (see Fig. 3.13). Metal production Chemical industry Million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent Mineral products 10 8 Figure 3.11 Greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes. 6 4 The largest emission sources are iron and steel pro- 2 duction and the cement and lime industry. Others in- 0 clude the use of coke in blast furnaces, of limestone 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 and dolomite in the minerals industry, and of coal in Enteric fermentation Manure management Agricultural soils copper production. Emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases are also reported in this sector. Figure 3.13 Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Emissions have varied since 1990, mainly owing to changing volumes of production linked to economic Enteric fermentation in livestock (chiefly cattle) fluctuations. With the exception of 2009, which saw a gives rise to methane emissions. These emissions have dramatic fall in emissions due to the recession, overall fallen by 13% since 1990, amounting to 2.6 Mt CO 2 eq emissions show a modest decline since 2004. Trends in 2011. The principal reason for the reduction is a devary from one industry to another. Emissions from the cline in the livestock population, with a decrease of mineral products sector have risen, while those from 12% in the number of cattle between 1990 and 2011. the chemical industry fell over the period. Emissions of Manure management produces emissions of mefluorinated greenhouse gases – halocarbons and sulphur thane and nitrous oxide. Aggregate emissions from hexafluoride (SF 6 ) – have increased since 1992, but this source have decreased by 23%, from 1.0 Mt CO 2 began to stagnate around 2008. eq in 1990 to 0.7 Mt CO 2 eq in 2011. The main reason for the decline is a reduction in the quantities of

3.2.8 Solvent and other product use animal manure, due to falling numbers of dairy cattle

Greenhouse gas emissions from the use of solvents and and pigs. other products amounted to 0.3 Mt CO 2 eq in 2011, or Agricultural soils are another major source of ni- 0.5% of national emissions. Compared with 1990, this trous oxide emissions, contributing 4.4 Mt CO 2 eq in represents a reduction of 11%, primarily due to a shift 2011, a reduction of 12% compared with 1990. The from oil- to water-based paints (see Fig. 3.12). decrease is due to declining use of both mineral fertilisers and animal manure. To some extent, action

3.2.9 Agriculture programmes to curb nitrogen losses from agriculture

Agriculture is the largest source of emissions of me- have reduced indirect emissions of nitrous oxide thane and nitrous oxide. In 2011, the sector’s emissions from leached nitrogen and from ammonia deposiof these greenhouse gases came to 7.8 Mt CO 2 eq, repre- tion. An expansion of slurry management in pig and

32 3. Greenhouse gas inventory 1990 – 2011

dairy farming has also played a significant role in carbon stocks) compared with forest land, resulting bringing down nitrous oxide emissions from the agri- in greater uncertainty in the data. The change in the cultural sector. stock of carbon in grasslands and wetlands is small (0.06 Mt CO 2 eq in all in 2011). Emissions from settled

3.2.10 Land use, land-use change and forestry land ranged from 1.3 to 2.9 Mt CO 2 eq between 1990 (LULUCF) and 2011.

Over the period 1990–2011, the land use, land-use

change and forestry sector represented an annual net 3.2.11 Waste

sink, as a result of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere Emissions of greenhouse gases from the waste sector being taken up by vegetation and incorporated in bio- have been halved since 1990 and show a downward mass. This net removal varied between 27 and 38 Mt trend (see Fig. 3.15). In 2011, they stood at 1.7 Mt CO 2 CO 2 eq (see Fig. 3.14). In 2011, it amounted to 35 Mt eq, or around 3% of total greenhouse gas emissions. CO 2 eq, corresponding to 57% of national greenhouse gas emissions. Sweden has a rolling sampling system Million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent based on permanent plots. Data for 2008–11 involve 4.0 greater uncertainty than the rest of the time series, as 3.5 3.0 not all plots were surveyed for those years. 2.5 2.0 1.5 Million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent 1.0 10 0.5 0.0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -10 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Landfills Wastewater Incineration of hazardous waste -20 Figure 3.15 Greenhouse gas emissions from waste. -30 -40 Of total emissions from the waste sector in 2011, -50 methane from landfill sites accounted for just over Settlements Cropland Wetlands Grassland Forest land two-thirds. After livestock farming, landfills are the largest source of methane emissions, as the gas forms Figure 3.14 Greenhouse gas emissions and removals from when organic wastes decompose. Emissions of me thane land use. have steadily declined since the early 1990s, owing partly to less waste being landfilled and partly to in- Forest land is the land-use category accounting for creased recovery of methane from landfill sites. The the majority of removals in this sector (39.3 Mt CO 2 main reason for the decrease in the quantities of waste eq in 2011). The long-term trend points to a slight de- sent to landfill is the bans on landfill disposal of comcline in removals from land use. This is due primarily bustible and organic material, introduced in 2002 and to increased felling, but also to two severe storms: 2005 respectively. Producer responsibility, municipal Gudrun at the beginning of 2005 and Per early in 2007. waste plans and the waste tax have also reduced the Winter storm Gudrun brought down a large quantity amount of waste. of timber, 75 million m 3 standing volume (Swedish Emissions from wastewater have fallen by 10% since Forest Agency 2006). 1990, owing to improvements in sludge management. According to the Forest Agency, gross fellings varied Emissions from the incineration of hazardous waste 3 between 64 and 96 million m standing volume over have risen somewhat in recent years compared with the period 1990–2011, with the exception of 2005, 1990–2002, due to an increase in the quantities of when felling, including windthrow, was estimated at waste incinerated. 122 million m 3 (Swedish Forest Agency 2013). Cropland is a net source of greenhouse gases, as the cultivation of organic soils gives rise to emissions. These varied between 1.3 and 2.7 Mt CO 2 eq in the period 1990–2011. At a national level, grassland, wetlands and settlements represent very small areas (and associated changes in

3. Greenhouse gas inventory 1990 – 2011 33

3.2.12 International bunkers

3.3 References for Chapter 3

Greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping National Inventory Report Sweden 2013. and aviation, known as international bunkers, are con- Swedish Forest Agency (2006). Skogsstatistisk årsbok siderably larger than those from domestic shipping and 2006 (Swedish Statistical Yearbook of Forestry 2006), aviation. In 1990, they amounted to 3.6 Mt CO 2 eq. p. 23. Since then, they have risen sharply, peaking in 2007. In 2011, emissions were 8.3 Mt CO 2 eq, a full 129% higher Swedish Forest Agency (2013). Officiell statistik, Tabell than in 1990. See Fig. 3.16. 7.9 Beräknad bruttoavverkning i hela landet (Table 7.9 Gross fellings by assortments: The entire country), Million tonnes of CO equivalent www.skogstyrelsen.se 2 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 International bunkers – aviation International bunkers – marine Multilateral operations

Figure 3.16 Greenhouse gas emissions from international

bunkers.

The majority of these emissions come from shipping, which contributed just over 6.0 Mt CO 2 eq in 2011, a rise of 164% since 1990. International freight transport activity has increased, as the volume of goods transported has grown and globalisation of trade and production systems has led to goods being transported over greater distances. Another factor is that Swedish refineries produce low-sulphur marine fuels (fuel oil nos. 2–5), meeting strict environmental standards. This has led to more shipping companies choosing to refuel in Sweden. Fluctuations in bunker volumes between years are also dependent on fuel prices in Sweden compared with ports in other countries. Greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation bunkers amounted to 2.3 Mt CO 2 eq in 2011, which was 70% higher than in 1990. The trend points to a rise in these emissions, owing to growth in foreign travel. The Swedish Armed Forces bunker extremely small quantities of fuel in Sweden for operations abroad. International bunker fuel emissions are not covered by any existing international commitments on emission reductions. As from 2012, however, aviation is included in the EU Emissions Trading System, although 2012 emissions from aircraft have in effect been exempted from the scheme.

34 3. Greenhouse gas inventory 1990 – 2011

3. Greenhouse gas inventory 1990 – 2011 35

Policies and measures

4.1 Swedish climate strategy

1990. This target applies to activities not included in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS, see Box 4.1). Sweden’s climate strategy has progressively devel- In addition, the Bill makes it a priority for Sweden to oped since the late 1980s. It consists of objectives, have a vehicle fleet independent of fossil fuels by 2030, policy instruments and measures, together with and sets out a vision of Sweden as a country with no regu lar follow-up and evaluation. In recent years, net emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere the country’s climate policy has continued to evolve by 2050. towards stronger EU integration and closer interna- The milestone target means that, by 2020, greentional cooperation. Sweden is working with the other house gas emissions from the non-trading sector are to EU member states to achieve a global agreement be some 20 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent compatible with the goal of limiting the rise in tem- (Mt CO 2 eq) lower than in 1990. To achieve this target, perature to no more than 2 °C above pre-industrial policy instruments already adopted and changes in inlevels. struments decided on at EU level are to be supplemented with further elaborated tax instruments and with emission reduction measures in other countries,

4.1.1 Strategy and objectives

involving investments in developing countries or pro- To give a clear structure to environmental efforts in jects in other EU member states. The Government es- Sweden, the Riksdag (the Swedish Parliament) has timates that investments in other countries will deliadopted a number of environmental quality object ives. ver a third of the overall reduction, adding up to 40 One of these, Reduced Climate Impact, forms the basis Mt CO 2 eq over the period as a whole. With its climate for action on climate change in the country. Current and energy policy decision of 2009, Sweden has adopted climate policy is in addition set out in two Govern- a national climate target for 2020 that goes beyond ment Bills, entitled An Integrated Climate and Energy the effort sharing put in place among the EU member Policy, passed by the Riksdag in June 2009 (Govt. Bills states as part of the EU Climate and Energy Package. 2008/09:162 and 163). The first of these Bills es- Under the Effort Sharing Decision reached for the tablishes an interpretation of the Reduced Climate purposes of the EU’s unilateral commitment (a 20% Impact objective in terms of a temperature target and cut in emissions between 1990 and 2020), Sweden is to a concentration target. The temperature target is that reduce its emissions outside the EU ETS by 17% bethe increase in global average temperature should be tween 2005 and 2020. For activities included in the EU limited to no more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. ETS, the level of ambition of the emissions reduction From this target a concentration target is derived, to be achieved is determined on a joint EU basis, under according to which Swedish climate policy is to be de- the rules of the trading system. signed to contribute to ensuring that the concentra- In 2009 the Riksdag also adopted two targets for tion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is sta bil- more efficient use of energy, one for 2020 and the ised in the long term at no more than 400 parts per other for 2016 (see Box 4.3). In addition, the Riksdag million of carbon dioxide equivalent. The Bill also sets has decided that Sweden’s use of renewable energy is a national milestone target for climate, calling for a to increase to 50% of total energy use by 2020 (see Box 40% reduction in emissions by 2020, compared with 4.2). The Swedish target for greater use of renewable

36 4. Policies and measures

Box 4.1 Emissions inside and outside the EU Emissions down into emissions covered and not covered by the EU ETS, Trading System as well as emission trends for some of the sectors outside the

The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) covers emissions of scheme. The figures reflect the scope of the EU ETS for the carbon dioxide from installations for power and heat generation, period 2013–20 (Government Offices of Sweden 2013).

refineries, plants producing and processing iron, steel, glass and glass fibre, cement and ceramics, and plants producing paper Emissions inside and outside the EU Emissions and paper pulp. As from 2012, it also includes aviation emis- Trading System (scope for period 2013–2020) sions, and from 2013, the aluminium industry, production and

(Mt CO eq) 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2020 2030

processing of non-ferrous metals, and parts of the chemical in-

2

dustry. In addition to carbon dioxide, the expansion in 2013 Total 67.27 63.41 59.34 65.49 61.45 59.16 57.33

emissions

brings within the system emissions of perfluorocarbons from the aluminium industry and of nitrous oxide from certain parts of EU ETS 24.31 23.17 20.25 25.70 22.76 23.78 23.66 the chemical industry. In Sweden, emissions from the trading Power and heat 4.99 4.44 5.76 7.61 5.41 4.52 4.31 sector made up around 33% of the country’s total emissions generation

Industry 18.66 18.14 13.99 17.61 16.82 18.63 18.76

over the period 2008–12.

Domestic 0.66 0.59 0.49 0.48 0.53 0.62 0.59 Emissions inside and outside the EU Emissions Trading System in 2011 (scope for period aviation 2013–2020) 25 Non-EU ETS 42.96 40.23 39.09 39.78 38.69 35.38 33.67 20 Transport 20.76 20.07 19.64 19.82 19.32 18.44 18.00 equivalent 2 15 (incl. military) Agriculture 7.95 7.91 7.68 7.79 7.77 7.28 7.23 10 Mobile 3.63 3.90 3.94 4.01 4.12 3.65 3.48 machinery, Million tonnes of CO 0 incl. fisheries S e Industry and 3.49 3.06 2.74 3.11 2.86 2.79 2.69 EU ET Solvents Agricultur power and heat y, incl. fisheries Industry and power Homes and premises generation Transport (incl. military) and heat generation Landfills and wastewater treatment plants Homes and 3.56 2.10 2.01 2.08 1.78 1.43 0.93 Fluorinated greenhouse gases Mobile machiner commercial/ EU ETS Non-EU ETS institutional premises

Other emissions, from activities outside the EU ETS, originate Landfills and 2.43 2.00 1.89 1.80 1.71 1.06 0.77 from a number of different sources. In Sweden, the transport wastewater

treatment

sector accounts for the largest share, followed by emissions

plants

from agriculture (methane and nitrous oxide) and from mobile

Fluorinated 0.83 0.90 0.92 0.89 0.85 0.45 0.29

machin ery. Emissions from certain industry sectors, such as greenhouse engineering, are partly inside and partly outside the system. gases The table (right) shows trends in Swedish emissions between Solvents 0.30 0.29 0.27 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28

2005 and 2011 and projections for 2020 and 2030, broken

energy by 2020 also goes somewhat further than In summer 2011, the Government commissioned the Sweden’s corresponding commitment under EU Swedish Environmental Protection Agency to underburden sharing. take a background analysis for a Swedish ‘roadmap’, To meet these energy policy goals, action plans have exploring how the vision for 2050 can be achieved. been drawn up for greater energy efficiency and for The Agency’s analysis was presented in December the promotion of renewable energy (see Boxes 4.2 and 2012 and is now being considered in the Government 4.3). These plans have also been prepared in order to Offices. show how Sweden intends to fulfil its commitments Riksdag decisions of key significance for Swedish under the EU’s Renewable Energy and Energy Services climate policy are presented in Box 4.4. Directives. The Government has set up an inquiry concerning a fossil-independent vehicle fleet. The Bills

4.1.2 Monitoring

proposing An Integrated Climate and Energy Policy also called for a broad analysis to be made of future Objectives and policy instruments are developed on removals and emissions of greenhouse gases from for- an ongoing basis, and further changes to instruments estry and of the potential to increase the uptake of may need to be introduced and monitored, based on carbon dioxide. In addition to policy on climate, re- understanding of climate change and the response opnewable energy and energy efficiency, the Bills set out tions available. Monitoring takes place at both the EU policy for the areas of fossil energy, efficient energy and the national level. markets, research and development, and nuclear power. Under the EU’s monitoring mechanism (Regulation

4. Policies and measures 37

(EU) No 525/2013), Sweden reports every two years on Box 4.2 Sweden’s renewables target for 2020

policies and measures implemented and planned to The EU has adopted a mandatory target requiring a 20%

achieve the climate target for 2020. At a national level, share of energy from renewable sources in overall energy consumption by 2020. Responsibility for meeting the target based partly on commitments under the Kyoto Protohas been divided among the member states. Based on the col, regular evaluations have been performed of the burden sharing agreed, Sweden’s renewable energy share in country’s climate policy. The first was a ‘checkpoint’ 2020 is to be 49%. The Riksdag has decided that, by that review started in 2004 (leading to a climate policy de- year, renewable sources are to provide at least 50% of total

cision in 2006), and the second was initiated in 2007 energy consumed. The share of renewable energy in the trans-

(resulting in the 2009 climate policy decision). To ana- port sector, meanwhile, is to be at least 10%. According to Sweden’s national action plan for the promotion of renewable lyse progress towards the objectives, as well as the curenergy (Government Offices of Sweden 2010), these goals rent state of knowledge, a further checkpoint review are to be achieved by the use of general policy instruments, is to be undertaken in 2015. This will not cover the investments in research, and targeted initiatives to support, fundamental direction of policy, but could result in among other things, the development and market introduc-

adjustments to policy instruments and measures. tion of pre-commercial technologies. Progress in relation to

the EU target is to be reported every two years (Directive 2009/28/EC). A checkpoint review for the national target will

4.1.3 Institutional arrangements

take place in 2015. At the national level, the Swedish Environmental Pro-

tection Agency is responsible for the environmental

Box 4.3 Sweden’s energy efficiency target for 2020

quality objective Reduced Climate Impact and for Swe- The EU has adopted a target of a 20% improvement in energy den’s regular climate reporting to the UNFCCC and efficiency by 2020. This target has not been broken down the EU. Its role thus includes ensuring that new statisamong the individual member states. Sweden has chosen to tics are produced annually on emission trends in the express its national target for improved energy efficiency by

country, and that projections and reports on pol icies 2020 as a 20% reduction in energy intensity between 2008

and measures forming part of Sweden’s climate strate- and 2020, which means that the energy supplied per unit of GDP at constant prices is to decrease over that period. This gy are prepared every two years. This work is done in target can be met by measures to use energy more efficiently, collaboration with the responsible sectoral authorities. but also by continued faster growth in less energy-intensive The Swedish Energy Agency has a broad sectoral remit industrial sectors, compared with energy-intensive industries. covering the supply and use of energy in society and is In addition, under the EU Energy Services Directive (2006/32/

responsible, among other things, for the action plans EC), Sweden has adopted indicative energy savings targets for

being drawn up to achieve further improvements in 2010 and 2016. These call for savings in the end use of energy, amounting on average to 6.5% (by 2010) and 9% (by energy efficiency and increase the use of renewable en- 2016) of average energy use over the period 2001–05. The ergy, as well as for Sweden’s work on flexible mechatargets are accompanied by an action plan, last updated in nisms. The Swedish International Development Coop- 2011, setting out the measures Sweden intends to introduce eration Agency (Sida), Swedish Transport Administra- to attain them (Government Offices of Sweden 2011). The

tion, Swedish Transport Agency, Swedish Forest Government Bill An Integrated Energy and Climate Policy –

Agency, Swedish Board of Agriculture and Swedish Energy (Govt. Bill 2008/09:163) presented a five-year energy efficiency programme for 2010–14. Funding of SEK 300m a National Board of Housing, Building and Planning also year over this period will be provided for the programme, have key roles in following up and developing the counwhich includes: try’s climate strategy. No specific legislation or special • Increased support for local and regional information and administrative procedures have been introduced to advice initiatives implement the Kyoto Protocol. The existing structure • Support for technology procurement and market introduction of central government administration and government • Grants for energy surveys of small and medium-sized inquiries has proved effective also for the purposes of enterprises (SMEs). fulfilling Sweden’s commitments under the Protocol. A new Energy Efficiency Directive (2012/27/EU) came into force on 4 December 2012, replacing the Energy Services Dir-

4.1.4 Regional and local action on climate ective and the Cogeneration Directive (2004/8/EC). It is to be change implemented in Swedish legislation by 5 June 2014. Earlier

Since 1998, Sweden’s county administrative boards the same year, a national energy efficiency action plan and a (CABs) have been tasked with applying the national national strategy for the renovation of buildings are to be submitted to the European Commission. The directive requires environmental quality objectives at a regional level. each member state to take action to achieve annual energy sav- All the country’s CABs have adopted regional climate ings of 1.5% of annual energy sales to final customers from objectives. Since 2005 their role has also included de- 2014 to 2020 inclusive.

veloping regional action programmes to achieve the

38 4. Policies and measures

Box 4.4 Riksdag decisions of significance for Swedish • In 2009 Government Bills proposing An Integrated Climate climate policy and Energy Policy were passed. They included climate

• In 1988, Sweden’s first climate objective was adopted. targets, targets for an increased share of renewable energy It covered carbon dioxide only and called for emissions to and improved energy efficiency by 2020, a vision for 2050, be stabilised at ‘present-day levels’. and a new interpretation of the overall wording of the • In 1991, the 1988 objective was extended to include all climate objective. greenhouse gases and all sectors. • The Government Bills on An Integrated Climate and Energy • In 1993 a national climate strategy was adopted in line with Policy also set out policy for the areas of fossil energy, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) efficient energy markets, and research and development. objective of stabilising emissions in developed countries. The The Riksdag has since approved, for example, Govt. Bill new national objective called for carbon dioxide emissions 2009/10:133, A Higher Target and Further Development of from fossil fuels to be stabilised at 1990 levels by 2000. the Electricity Certificates System; Govt. Bill 2010/11:155, • The energy policy guidelines adopted by the Riksdag in A New Electricity Certificates Act – Simplified Rules and a 1997 included a strategy to reduce the climate impact of Single Electricity Certificates Market; Govt. Bill energy use and energy production. 2010/11:153, Strengthening the Role of the Consumer for a • As part of its 1998 transport policy decision, the Riksdag Developed Electricity Market and Sustainable Energy adopted the goal of stabilising carbon dioxide emissions System; Govt. Bill 2010/11:70, Third Internal Energy from transport at 1990 levels by 2010. Market Package for Electricity and Natural Gas; Govt. Bill • In 1999 the Riksdag decided to introduce a system of 2011/12:98, Hourly Metering for Active Electricity Consu- 15 environmental quality objectives, including one relating mers; Govt. Bill 2012/13:70, Consideration of Network to the greenhouse effect: the environmental objective Concessions; and Govt. Bill 2012/13:21, Research and Reduced Climate Impact. Innovation for a Sustainable Energy System. • In 2002 a Government Bill entitled Sweden’s Climate Strategy • The Government Bills proposing An Integrated Climate and was passed, including climate goals for 2010 and 2050. Energy Policy also set out policy on nuclear power. The • The same year, the Riksdag decided to further develop the Riksdag subsequently passed Govt. Bill 2009/10:172, system of environmental quality objectives, among other Nuclear Power – Opening the Way to a Generation Change, things regarding the responsibilities of different stakeholders and Govt. Bill 2009/10:173, Nuclear Power – Increased for attaining the objectives. Liability. These decisions repealed the Nuclear Phase-Out • The 2002 energy policy decision included a climate strategy Act and made it possible to replace permanently closed reacrelated to that area. tors with new ones on the same site, as well as introducing • A climate policy decision in 2006 evaluated and retained unlimited liability for power producers for damage arising the national target for 2010. from nuclear accidents.

environmental quality objectives. In addition, since with funding from the Swedish Energy Agency, the EU,

2008 they have been entrusted with strategic coordin- CABs, regional development councils and other organation and leadership of regional efforts to implement isations. Government policies for a transition to renewable en- At the municipal level, a wide range of action is being ergy and reduced impact on climate. CABs develop taken on a voluntary basis. This assumes different forms, and implement regional action plans in collaboration including climate strategies to reduce greenhouse gas with other stakeholders. They support the work of the emissions. In 2010, an evaluation was carried out of exbusiness sector and municipalities in the area of cli- isting support for local authorities’ climate strategy efmate and energy. By 2012, according to a status report forts (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 2010). (Swedish Energy Agency 2012a), CABs had come a long At that point, 88% of municipalities replying, or 163 in way in developing strategies and all of them had started all, had already adopted a climate strategy, or intended to put measures in place. to do so shortly. Work on climate strategies had resulted In 2010, to further develop regional action on climate in concrete measures in around three-quarters of the and energy, the Government designated three pilot municipalities. The evaluation also showed that both counties for green development: Dalarna, Skåne and basic conditions and the options available differed be- Norrbotten. The aim was that, by testing tools and tween local authorities. According to a key figures report policy instruments for a green transition in these coun- (Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions ties, it would be possible to develop good practice ex- 2012), municipalities participating in a central governamples that could serve as a stimulus to regional climate ment energy efficiency support scheme showed, among and energy efforts and promote a swifter transition. other things, a greatly increased share of renewable fuel There are also regional energy offices, which initi- use for public transport and some reduction in energy ate and participate in a wide range of projects relat- use in local authority-owned premises and homes. ing to energy efficiency and renewable energy sources,

4. Policies and measures 39

4.2 Policies and measures in Sweden’s

towards the objectives. And because several instruments interact, it is also hard to distinguish the effect

climate strategy and their effects

of any one of them from those of the others. Furthermore, picking out the effects of policy instruments

4.2.1 Background from the impacts of other, external changes is often

Sweden has introduced a range of policies and measures complicated. This is particularly clear as regards dedirectly or indirectly affecting greenhouse gas emis- velopments over the past decade. During this period, sions. The emphasis in the country’s climate strategy is several instruments of significance for the climate on the use of general economic instruments, but in strategy have been introduced or tightened up in many cases these are supplemented with targeted Sweden, in parallel with a sharp rise in energy prices. measures, for example to support the development and A solid conclusion, though, is that energy and carbon market introduction of technology and eliminate dioxide taxes have been key instruments in achieving barrier effects. Many instruments which interact with policy objectives in the area of energy and climate. carbon dioxide tax and emissions trading have also Yet another difficulty in evaluating policies and been adopted to achieve other policy goals than the measures in Sweden is that instruments which reduce climate objective, such as energy policy objectives. electricity consumption or increase the production of Since the early 1990s, two key instruments in reduc- carbon-free electricity have only a limited impact on ing Swedish emissions have been the energy and carbon carbon dioxide emissions inside Sweden’s borders, dioxide taxes. These taxes have been supplemented owing to the fact that the electricity market is Nordic/ with other instruments, however, such as technology north European and, moreover, has been covered by procurement, information, a differentiated annual ve- the EU ETS since 2005. hicle tax and investment grants. Legislation, for exam- It should also be noted that, even before 1990, there ple involving prohibitions and relating to planning, were instruments in the Swedish energy sector with a also plays a part in curbing emissions, primarily in the similar steering effect to those used after 1990, in that waste sector. In recent years, EU-wide policy instru- incentives were created early on for the introduction ments, in particular the Emissions Trading System (EU of bioenergy and an expansion of district heating. ETS), have assumed growing importance in Sweden. For the energy supply sector and the residential and At the same time, the design of spatial planning and commercial/institutional sector, therefore, it may be other instruments long established in Sweden has also difficult to distinguish the additional effects of policy very much defined the framework for the develop- instruments introduced in Sweden after 1990 from ments of recent decades. Of particular importance are the effects that might otherwise have arisen if instruearlier decades’ investments in an expansion of dis- ments had not been tightened up. trict heating networks, public transport systems and Fig. 4.1 illustrates an overall assessment of the carbon-free production of electricity. impact of economic instruments affecting Sweden’s Given the large number of policies and measures, stationary energy system. Forming the basis for the many of them introduced to achieve other goals as results is the MARKAL-NORDIC energy system well as those relating to climate, it can be difficult, model, in which a scenario based on policy instruafter the event, to evaluate the exact progress made ments in place in 1990 has been compared with one

Table 4.1 Existing policies and measures of significance for Sweden’s climate strategy. EU instruments are marked in bold.

Cross-sectoral Energy supply Industry Transport Residential Agriculture Waste

• Emissions trading • Emissions • Emissions trading • CO 2 standards for new • Energy performance • Rural • Bans on • Energy and carbon trading • Energy and carbon vehicles certificates Development landfill dioxide taxes • Energy and dioxide taxes • Energy and carbon • Energy and Programme disposal • Environmental carbon dioxide • F-gas Regulation dioxide taxes carbon • Energy and • Methane Code taxes • Tax relief on transport dioxide taxes carbon dioxide recovery • Planning and • Electricity biofuels/quota • Ecodesign taxes • Recycling Building Act certificates obligation Directive and • Support • Producer • Research and • Special • CO 2 -based annual energy labelling for biogas responsibility development initiatives in vehicle tax • Building • Advice • Municipal support of wind • Incentives for green regulations waste plans and solar power vehicles • Energy advice • Definition of green • Technology vehicles procurement • Car benefit taxation • Infrastructure planning Source: Government Offices of Sweden 2013

40 4. Policies and measures

20 (Swedish Tax Agency 2013a). As from 2015, though,

the same general level of carbon dioxide tax will apply in 16 calculating the rates of this tax for all fossil fuels. Electricity and district As from 1 January 2013, combined heat and power 12 heating (CHP) production covered by the EU ETS is completely Residential exempt from carbon dioxide tax, but is liable to an 8 and commercial/ energy tax set at 30% of the standard rate (Swedish Tax

2

institutional

CO

Mt Industry (excl. Agency 2013b). The same rules have applied since 4 back pressure) 1 January 2011 to industries included in the trading

Total system and to the generation of heat used in industrial 0 manufacturing within the system (Swedish Tax Agency

2013c). The changes are designed to avoid overlap in - 4 the steering provided by the trading system and the

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 carbon dioxide tax, thereby helping to make both in-

Figure 4.1 Difference in carbon dioxide emissions struments more cost-effective.

between a scenario based on 1990 policy instruments and Manufacturing industries outside the EU ETS, as

actual development of policy instruments (Profu 2013). well as agriculture, forestry and pisciculture, pay 30%

of the standard rates of energy and carbon dioxide tax

(Swedish Tax Agency 2013c). Generation of heat in an

reflecting the actual development of instruments (see installation included in the EU ETS, not used in indus-

Box 4.5). The different sectors are described in more trial manufacturing, is subject to carbon dioxide tax

detail in the relevant sections of this chapter. at 94% of the standard rate (Swedish Tax Agency

2013d). In addition, there are special rules on further

reductions of carbon dioxide tax for some energy-

4.2.2 Cross-sectoral instruments

intensive industries and for diesel used in agriculture, Energy and carbon dioxide taxes forestry and pisciculture.

The Swedish system of energy taxation is based on a

combination of a carbon dioxide tax, an energy tax on Table 4.2 Energy and carbon dioxide taxes as per 1 January fuel, a tax on thermal capacity on nuclear power and a 2013, excl. VAT.

consumption tax on electricity. Taxes on energy have Heating Energy CO 2 Total Tax

fuels 1 tax tax tax SEK/kWh

existed for a long time. A tax on petrol and diesel was Fuel oil, env. class 1, 817 3 093 3 910 0.393 introduced as early as the 1920s, while heating fuels SEK/m 3

and electricity have been taxed since the 1950s. An Coal, SEK/tonne 621 2 691 3 312 0.438

energy tax is levied on fossil fuels, based in the case of LPG, SEK/tonne 1 050 3 254 4 304 0.337 Natural gas, 903 2 316 3 219 0.293 heating fuels on their energy content. In 2013 the SEK/1000 m 3 energy tax on natural gas, coal and fuel oil was the Crude tall oil, 3 910 – 3 910

0.399

equivalent of SEK 0.082/kWh. The energy tax on petrol SEK/m 3

Transport fuels

(environmental class 1) corresponds to SEK 0.346/kWh Petrol, unleaded, 3.13 2.50 5.63 0.623 and that on diesel (environmental class 1) to SEK 0.177/ env. class 1, SEK/l kWh (Swedish Tax Agency 2013a). The carbon dioxide Diesel, env. class 1, 1.76 3.09 4.86 0.487

tax was introduced in 1991 as part of a broader tax SEK/l Natural gas/methane, – 1.853 1.85 0.168 reform and has been raised in stages over the years, from SEK/m 3 SEK 0.25/kg CO 2 to SEK 1.08/kg CO 2 in 2012 (Swedish LPG, SEK/kg – 2.603 2.60 0.204

Environmental Protection Agency 2012a). It is charged Electricity consumption

at a rate that is expressed per unit of weight or volume of Electricity, N 0.194 – 0.194 0.194 Sweden, SEK/kWh fuel, calculated on the basis of the fuel’s fossil carbon Electricity, rest of 0.293 – 0.293 0.293 content. This means that biofuels are not taxed. The Sweden, SEK/kWh

carbon dioxide tax base can be summed up as compris- Industry

ing the fossil fuels covered by the EU’s Energy Taxation Electricity consump- 0.005 0.005 0.005 tion, industrial Directive, which means that the tax does not apply to processes and

peat. Up to 2015, some relief from carbon dioxide tax agriculture, forestry and pisciculture, will be granted for natural gas and liquefied petrole- SEK/kWh

um gas (LPG) used in motor ve hicles, ships and aircraft Source: Swedish Tax Agency, collated by Swedish Energy Agency

1 Some tax relief is available on the use of fuels in manufacturing industries, agriculture, forestry and pisciculture, and CHP and district heating production.

4. Policies and measures 41

With effect from 1 February 2013, sustainable biofuels in (the scope of the scheme is described in Box 4.1). The petrol and diesel, in blends of up to 5% by volume, are first trading period was from 2005 to 2007 and the exempt from the whole of the carbon dioxide tax and second coincided with the first commitment period of most of the energy tax (89% for biofuels in petrol and the Kyoto Protocol, 2008–12. The EU ETS is an im- 84% for biofuels in diesel). E85 and other sustainable portant part of the EU’s strategy to reduce emissions high-blend biofuels and biofuels with no fossil content within the Union, with a fixed emissions cap that will are entirely exempt from carbon dioxide and energy tax decrease every year up to 2020. The annual reduction on their biomass-based component. in the cap will continue beyond 2020, but may be re- Tax is payable on consumption of electricity, at a rate vised no later than 2025. The trading system is key to that depends on where in the country and how the Swedish efforts to help achieve the EU’s climate targets power is used. For electricity used in manufacturing for 2020. processes or in agriculture, forestry or pisciculture, any- Emissions from Swedish installations included in the where in the country, the rate applied in 2013 is EU ETS made up around 33% of total greenhouse gas SEK 0.005/kWh. The tax on electricity consumed emissions in Sweden over the period 2008–12. Some by households and service-sector enterprises is SEK 80% of these emissions came from industrial plants 0.194/kWh in northern Sweden and SEK 0.293/kWh in and 20% from power and district heating installations. the rest of the country (Swedish Tax Agency 2013a). The breakdown for Sweden differs appreciably from the average for the EU ETS as a whole, where emissions Effects of taxes introduced from energy supply plants are greater (about 60% of Instruments to promote lower emissions from district the total) than those from industrial installations heating production and residential heating began to (roughly 40%). During the first and second trading perbe introduced before 1990, with biofuels, for example, iods, emission allowances were allocated largely free of already exempt from energy tax at that time. Analyses charge, under different rules drawn up nationally on using the MARKAL-NORDIC modelling tool (see Box the basis of EU-wide criteria. In Sweden, however, no 4.5) show that the energy and carbon dioxide taxes free allocations were made to existing plants in the have primarily helped to reduce emissions from dis- electricity and district heating sector between 2008 trict heating and from the residential and commer- and 2012. Overall, the emissions cap for the period cial/institutional sector. For homes and premises, both 2008–12 was some 10% lower than the cap for 2005–07. tax changes and oil price increases since the 1990s For the third trading period, from 2013 to 2020, have meant that it has paid to switch from oil and elec- seve ral changes have been made to the scheme. From tricity as sources of heating (Profu 2013). An analysis 2013, the emissions cap is to decrease in a linear fashion for each sector, based on MARKAL-NORDIC, can be by 1.74% per year, starting from the average annual found in the relevant sections of this chapter. level of the cap during the second trading period. This will result in a reduction of 21% within the EU ETS by EU Emissions Trading System 2020, compared with 2005. More sectors have been The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) was included, and some 50% of emission allowances are to be launched on 1 January 2005. The system puts a limit, or auctioned, with a gradual phase-out of free allocations cap, on emissions across the EU from the sectors covered over the period. The rules on the proportion allocated

Box 4.5

To assess the effects of economic instruments on Sweden’s sta- Some methodological development has taken place in the modeltionary energy system, we have used the results of estimates ling of policy instruments in the residential and services sector made with the MARKAL-NORDIC energy system model (Profu compared with the last National Communication, in that the 2013). The ‘stationary energy system’ comprises production of cost of capital has been raised from 7% to 12%, to better reflect electricity, district heating and process steam, together with the ‘inertia’ built into the energy transition. Estimates have also final energy consumption in the residential sector, services and been made of how large an improvement in energy efficiency in industry. The estimates covered two cases: the sector can be linked to the instruments introduced (Profu 1. Actual development of policy instruments from 1990 to 2011). 2013. Current instruments are subsequently assumed to re- Modelling attempts to capture the most important variables main in use up to and including 2030. that could conceivably influence the outcome we are interested 2. A ‘1990 scenario’, using the policy instruments in place in in studying; all modelling therefore necessarily involves a sim- 1990 throughout the period studied (1990–2030). In other plification of reality and hence some uncertainty. respects, this case is identical to (1).

42 4. Policies and measures

for free have been harmonised across the EU and are (section 4.2.3) has provided an incentive to increase based on specific emissions per unit of production as biofuel-based CHP production. an allocation methodology. Modelling of the aggregate effects of economic in- How large a share of allowances will be allocated struments in the Swedish energy sector (see Box 4.5) free of charge in any given member state will depend shows that the electricity certificates system, the EU on a number of factors, including production levels ETS and the energy and carbon dioxide taxes are exand the number of industries exposed to carbon leak- pected to be the key instruments for limiting emissions age. In Sweden, the district heating and pulp and paper from the energy supply sector in the years to come. For sectors, in particular, will receive a larger free industry, the trading system is judged to be the most al location than in earlier trading periods, owing to the important climate instrument. The price of emission harmonised allocation rules and low specific emis- allowances and assumptions regarding future prices sions, while other sectors will receive a smaller alloca- will be of significance for the impact of this instrument. tion. (Profu 2013.)

Impact on carbon dioxide emissions The Environmental Code and planning legislation

The effect of the EU ETS on global emissions is equal to The Swedish Environmental Code (SFS 1998:808), the difference between the level set for the cap and the whose overall objective is to promote sustainable debaseline trajectory, i.e. the emissions trend which it is velopment, brings together the principal legislative assumed would otherwise have occurred. The effect on provisions in the area of the environment. In applying emissions in an individual country will depend on a it, the environmental quality objectives are to serve as number of factors: alongside the price of emission allo- a guide. The Code includes general rules of considerawances, these include national circumstances such as tion that are to be observed in connection with all the existence of additional policy instruments, the activities and measures. Large-scale environmentally costs of measures and the reduction potential. Since hazardous activities are subject to a permit requirethe trading system limits member states’ aggregate ment. Anyone seeking a permit to establish, operate or emissions at EU level, national emission levels and the alter an environmentally hazardous activity has to breakdown between countries are of secondary inter- prepare an environmental impact statement (EIS), as est. The economic situation, variations in weather provided in Chapter 6 of the Code. The purpose of an between years and trends in energy prices also have EIS is to identify and describe the direct and indirect a major impact on emission trends, both short- and long- impacts which the planned activity or measure could term. Allowing for the inclusion of more combustion have, for example on climate. installations in the EU ETS in 2008, average emissions Greenhouse gas emissions are one of the factors confrom Swedish plants in the system in 2008–12 fell by sidered as part of the permitting procedure under the about 10% compared with the average for 2005–07 Environmental Code. As from 2005, however, the (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency estimates, authorities may no longer impose limits on carbon di- 2013). In interview surveys, over 50% of Swedish opera- oxide emissions or the use of fossil fuels by installations tors replied that the scheme had influenced their com- covered by the EU ETS. panies in such a way that they had reduced their carbon Measures in the area of spatial planning chiefly dioxide emissions (Swedish Energy Agency 2010a). affect emission trends in the longer term, and can be Measures have primarily been introduced at installa- of great significance in that perspective. Physical plantions in the energy supply and pulp and paper indus- ning measures are primarily governed by the Planning tries. Action taken includes increasing the capacity and Building Act (PBA). Many such measures, as well of bio fuel plants, investments in waste-fired boilers as major infrastructure projects regulated by the (burning industrial waste), measures to improve com- Roads Act and the Railway Construction Act, are also bustion efficiency, increased use of district heating, and subject to some of the provisions of the Environmental conversion from oil- to biofuel-fired boilers. At the Code. Growing attention has been paid to the impact same time, companies have implemented action pro- of development of the built environment on energy grammes to reduce overall energy use. It should be and transport demand, and to the need for greater conoted that other policy instruments, too, may be behind ordination of infrastructure, transport and settlement this trend. Energy efficiency action programmes are planning (cf. SOU 2008:110, p. 29; Govt. Bill also being implemented as part of the Programme for 2008/09:162, pp. 130 f.; Govt. Bill 2011/12:118, pp. 89 Energy Efficiency in Energy-Intensive Industry (PFE, see ff.; Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and section 4.2.5). And the electricity certificates system Planning 2009).

4. Policies and measures 43

The Government Bill proposing a new Planning and strategies (Swedish Transport Administration 2012a). Building Act (Ministry of the Environment 2009) also In their appropriation directions and conditions for emphasised the important role municipal spatial plan- 2013, county administrative boards, certain county ning has to play in addressing climate change, and the councils and bodies for inter-municipal cooperation, need for physical planning to be better coordinated which are responsible for regional development issues with infrastructure planning. The earlier PBA did not in their counties, have been tasked with reporting on include an express requirement to take climate into and assessing the coordination of and mutual links beaccount, other than its provision that planning and tween infrastructure and transport planning, growth siting decisions were to be taken with due considera- programmes at the county level, and local authorities’ tion for the risks of accidents, flooding and erosion. comprehensive planning. The new Act (SFS 2010:900), which came into force on The Government has also appointed a cross-party 2 May 2011, introduced a new requirement to take ac- committee of inquiry whose terms of reference incount of environmental and climate aspects in plan- clude an evaluation of the regional planning system ning. The purpose of this addition, according to the under Chapter 7 of the PBA (2010:900). The committee Bill, is to promote good environmental conditions will examine how that system relates, on the one hand, both by means of adaptation to climate change and by to the systems of regional development strategies and reducing human impact on climate and thereby help- county transport infrastructure plans, provided for in ing to achieve the environmental quality objective the County Coordinating Bodies Act (2002:34) and Reduced Climate Impact . The new PBA also made it the Act on Regional Development Responsibility in mandatory to consider inter-municipal and regional Certain Counties (2010:630), and on the other, to circumstances in planning. Here, too, a link can be regional transport provision programmes under the found between transport issues and physical planning. Public Transport Act (2010:1065). In the Infrastructure Bill (Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications 2012a), the assessment Cross-sectoral investment grants was made that the development of an economically For the period 2009–12, the Government set up a efficient, sustainable transport system needed to be Delegation for Sustainable Cities. Its purpose was to coordinated to a greater extent with land use, housing promote the development of attractive, socially and supply and other public planning, as well as with economically sustainable urban environments with a initiatives in other areas of society, such as growth in reduced impact on climate and the environment. The the business sector, the labour market etc. This has also Delegation brought together central government, the been a basic premise in an exercise, commissioned by business community and local authorities in a national the Government (Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and platform for sustainable urban development. It also Communications 2012b), to prepare national and re- allocated financial support to enterprises and municigional cross-modal plans for development of the trans- palities. The projects supported are intended to serve port system over the period 2014–25. The transport as models of sustainable urban planning and applied system and associated infrastructure are to be adapted environmental technology. to the requirements, economic, environmental and Grants were available to all types of stakeholders, and social, of long-term sustainable development. Pro- from 2009 to 2012 a total of SEK 357m of state funding posals for a new national plan for Sweden’s transport was awarded for almost a hundred investment and plansystem for 2014–25, drawn up for the Government by ning projects. All the investment projects are to be comthe Swedish Transport Administration, state among pleted by 2014, and the last planning projects by 2016. other things that the Administration will participate The lessons learnt from the projects supported have been in spatial planning in order to integrate planning of actively disseminated, nationally and internationally. the transport system and the siting of housing, indus- Under the Ordinance governing the scheme, support try and services, and that this work is fundamental to was primarily to be given for measures which, overall sustainable accessibility in attractive urban areas and and in the long term, were judged to have the best regions. It is also noted that early collaboration with prospects of delivering the largest reduction of greenother stakeholders paves the way for long-term effi- house gas emissions in relation to the funding provided. ciency in the use of resources; this may range from in- The Delegation therefore paid particular attention to fluencing the strategic direction of spatial planning in climate effects when assessing applications. regional development plans and regional public trans- The National Board of Housing, Building and Planning port provision programmes, for example, to involve- is conducting an independent review of the support ment in municipal comprehensive plans and transport provided through the Delegation for Sustainable Cities.

44 4. Policies and measures

Climate change information informative website covering both the global aspects of Up to 2010, the Swedish Environmental Protection climate change and issues relating to biodiversity and Agency received specific funding from the Government the individual farmer. to provide information on climate change. Its efforts in A more detailed account of information on climate this area focused on disseminating and making access- change will be found in Chapter 9. ible facts about the climate issue, and especially about the associated problems and solutions, and on sharing Research and development Swedish experience internationally. Public investments in climate-related research and de- Both the Environmental Protection Agency and the velopment are aimed at creating better conditions for Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute achieving the substantial emission reductions that are (SMHI) have an ongoing responsibility for information, required in the longer term. entrusted to them by the Government. SMHI has a spe- Swedish climate-related research covers a broad cific remit to collate and disseminate information on spectrum, from natural sciences to humanities, but climate change. with an emphasis on technical and scientific R&D. Between 2002 and 2009, the Environmental Protec- The Riksdag decided in 2012 to extend and progrestion Agency carried out surveys of public awareness of sively strengthen funding for energy research (Govt. and attitudes to climate change. To sum up the results Bill 2012/13:21), which focuses to a great extent on of the 2009 survey, 100% of Swedes are spontaneously reducing carbon dioxide emissions. It set a level of aware or have heard of climate change. They demon- some SEK 1.3 billion for the years 2013–15 and around strate a very high level of readiness to reduce their own SEK 1.4bn from 2016 onwards. The overarching aim is greenhouse gas emissions, and a growing number have that the work undertaken should contribute to realisdone something in their everyday lives to reduce their ing existing energy and climate objectives, long-term climate impact (Swedish Environmental Protection energy and climate policy, and energy-related environ- Agency 2009). mental policy goals. Energy research is a central and Information on possible measures in different sectors integral part of energy policy, offering synergies with is disseminated through a number of channels. Several other policy instruments in that area. energy efficiency campaigns have been run at a national A link exists between innovation initiatives and level, but more continuous information is provided economic instruments, in that the latter can facilitate locally and regionally, through the country’s climate market introduction of the new technology, as with and energy advisers and regional energy offices. They the green vehicle rebate, for example. deal free of charge with enquiries concerning heating, An audit of climate research in Sweden by the Swedenergy costs, energy efficiency, transport, climate, and ish National Audit Office (2012) estimated that fundgovernment grants in the area of energy. ing had risen to almost SEK 2bn in 2010, or around 7% The Swedish Energy Agency conducts an annual of all central government support for research. The review of energy and climate advice services, assessing majority of these funds went to energy research. The public awareness of these services and their impact in study shows that Swedish climate research generates terms of kilowatt-hours saved. The assessment of their an internationally high proportion of academic arteffect is regarded as uncertain, however, partly because icles, which are also frequently cited. In terms of patent the energy savings achieved cannot be assumed to be en- applications, Sweden tops the statistics for the Nordic tirely the result of contact with the advice services, but region. However, it is difficult to assess whether it is may also be attributable to other policy instruments the increase in funding that is behind this growth in and factors. (Swedish Energy Agency 2013a.) results. In agriculture and forestry, advice to landowners and

managers plays a major role. Over the period 2009–11, 4.2.3 Production of electricity and district the Swedish Forest Agency received special funding to heating

inform forest owners and forest officers about the cli- In 2011, greenhouse gas emissions from the production mate issue. Climate change information and advice have of electricity and district heating (including residual been provided at dedicated seminars or information gases from industry) totalled 8.3 Mt CO 2 eq, a slight days in various parts of the country. The Agency’s website increase on 1990 (Swedish Environmental Protection (Swedish Forest Agency 2013d) and the magazine Skogs- Agency 2013a). Emissions from this sector, however, eko (‘Forest Echo’) have also been important channels. vary with temperature and precipitation. In a wet year Farming has a wide range of impacts on the environ- they are generally lower, while in dry years they inment. The Swedish Board of Agriculture maintains an crease. Temperature affects heating requirements, with

4. Policies and measures 45

greater demand for both electricity and district heat- is a key instrument in Sweden’s action plan to achieve ing during cold years. Emissions from the sector have its 2020 target under the EU Renewables Directive. therefore fluctuated from year to year, with higher As from 1 January 2012, Sweden and Norway have a levels in years with cold winters, such as 2011. common electricity certificates market. The two Production of district heating rose from 41 TWh in countries have now set a joint target of an increase in 1990 to 60.5 TWh in 2011 (Swedish Energy Agency renewable electricity production of 26.4 TWh be- 2012b). At the same time, emissions from this source tween 2012 and 2020. In 2011 and 2012, electricity remained relatively stable, as the expansion was large- users were required to buy certificates corresponding ly achieved by increased use of biofuels. The use of oil to 17.9% of their consumption. Production of renewand coal, meanwhile, declined. The carbon dioxide tax able electricity under the certificates scheme in 2012 is judged to be one of the main factors behind this amounted to 21.5 TWh. At the end of that year, 1,411 trend. The low emissions from electricity generation generating plants were phased out of the certificates are explained by the fact that nuclear and hydropower system (Swedish Energy Agency 2013b). The backaccount for a dominant share of production, at the ground to this is that plants in operation in 2003, same time as additional production of electricity in when the scheme started, were only allocated certifirecent years has chiefly come from biomass-fired com- cates up to the end of 2012. bined heat and power (CHP) plants and wind power.

Effects of economic instruments in the electricity Policies and measures in the electricity and district and district heating sector

heating sector Estimates using the MARKAL-NORDIC modelling In the 1990s, the energy and carbon dioxide taxes were tool (see Box 4.5) show that emissions from the electria major factor in the sector’s development. The carbon city and district heating sector (including industrial dioxide tax on CHP production within the EU ETS back-pressure power) could have been almost 14 Mt was abolished on 1 January 2013, while heat produc- CO 2 eq higher in 2010 if policy instruments had retion in heat-only boilers has continued to be taxed. mained at their 1990 levels (see Table 4.3). The differ- Since 2000, policy instruments in this sector have in- ence in modelled emissions is due above all to significreasingly been influenced by the EU’s common energy cantly greater use of coal in the scenario based on and climate policy, at the same time as new national 1990 instruments than in the one based on current instruments have been introduced. The system of elec- levels of instruments. tricity certificates, established in 2003, is of signifi- Since 1990, the production of electricity and discance for the development of new renewable electricity trict heating has been marked by a very substantial generating capacity. Since 2005, most combustion in- expansion of renewable fuels, and over the same stallations for power and heat production have been period the influence of policy instruments has inincluded in the EU ETS, which represents a key policy creased shar ply for the portion of district heat proinstrument for this sector. In addition, the sector is duction based on heat-only boilers. For combined heat affected by the provisions of the Environmental Code and power, the pressure from instruments increased and by support for the technological development and up to the beginning of the 21st century and subsemarket introduction of wind power. quently decreased. The rationale behind the reduced pressure of taxation was to improve market condi- Electricity certificates system tions for CHP as a mode of production (Swedish The system of electricity certificates is a market-based Energy Agency 2003). The carbon dioxide tax on CHP scheme to support the expansion of electricity pro- production within the EU ETS was abolished on duction from renewable energy sources and peat, in- 1 January 2013, contributing to more cost-effective troduced in Sweden in 2003. Under the system, elec- climate policy management in a European perspectricity generators approved for an allocation of elec- tive. tricity certificates are allocated one certificate for According to the modelling results, moreover, the every megawatt-hour (MWh) of renewable electricity electricity certificates system is an important reason produced. These certificates are then sold to electric- for the clear phase-out of fossil fuels seen in the scenity users, who are required by law to purchase elec- ario based on current instruments, in that it provides an tricity certificates corresponding to a certain share, or incentive for biofuel-based CHP. Electricity production quota, of their consumption. This quota is gradually in Sweden qualifying for certificates grew by just over being increased year by year up to 2020. (Swedish En- 13 TWh between 2002 and 2011. In the early years, the ergy Agency 2012c.) The electricity certificates system increase consisted mostly of electricity from biofuels

46 4. Policies and measures

burnt at existing CHP plants and an expansion of capa- communication of the programme’s results. city at existing biofuel plants. However, the system also Designated areas of national interest for wind utilresulted in 1,613 new installations being commissioned isation – which have been deemed particularly suitable between 2003 and 2011, of which 1,344 were wind tur- for the generation of electricity from wind power – bines. Between them, these new installations generated cover 2.2% of the area of Sweden and also include some 8.2 TWh of electricity in 2011 (Swedish Energy areas in the country’s economic zone. New designa- Agency 2012c). tions were decided in December 2013 (Swedish Energy Sensitivity analyses of the model’s scenarios have Agency 2013d). shown that the certificates system would correspon- A Riksdag decision of 2009 requires there to be a dingly ‘resist’ a shift towards fossil-based production if ‘planning frame’ for wind power corresponding to 30 the EU ETS allowance price were to be € 10 per tonne TWh by 2020, of which 10 TWh is to be offshore. This in 2030, rather than the € 40 per tonne used as a base frame means that, in the context of spatial planning, case. In such a situation, emissions from the sector conditions are to be created for an expansion of wind would rise, but only to a limited extent. A sensitivity power to 30 TWh, but it does not represent a producanalysis involving lower fossil fuel prices points to an tion target (Swedish Energy Agency 2013e). The planexpansion of fossil-based generation of power and heat ning frame replaces the earlier target for wind power both in a scenario with policy instruments at their cur- development of 10 TWh by 2015. In 2012, just over 7 rent level and in one retaining instruments at their TWh of wind power was generated in Sweden, ten times 1990 level. Current policy instrument levels, however, as much as in 2003 when the electricity certificates are of great significance in slowing the rise in emissions, system was introduced (Swedish Energy Agency 2013f). and the difference in emission levels between the two The Guarantees of Origin of Electricity Act (SFS scenarios is therefore even larger than in the base case, 2010:601) came into force on 1 December 2010. Its where fossil fuel prices are higher and themselves help aim is to ensure that final customers are provided with to reduce emissions. In this sensitivity case, too, the clear information on the origins of the electricity they electricity certificates system is a major factor, as it purchase (Swedish Energy Agency 2013h). helps to make bio-CHP competitive. (Profu 2013.) The earlier support scheme for solar heating was discontinued on 31 December 2011. The scheme resulted in additional solar heating corresponding to an annual Table 4.3 Estimated aggregate effects of policy instruoutput of about 20.3 GWh, primarily replacing bio-

ments introduced since 1990 on emissions from electric-

fuels and, to a lesser extent, direct-acting electric and

ity and district heating production in Sweden, compared

district heating (Swedish National Board of Housing,

with a scenario based on 1990 instruments (Mt CO 2 eq

Building and Planning 2012). Following withdrawal of

per year) (Profu 2013)

the scheme, it is possible to apply instead for tax relief

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

in the form of a property renovation (ROT) deduction, 11 14 16 16 16 15 covering the labour costs of installing solar heating. Since 2009 there has been a central government scheme to support the installation of solar cells. The Further initiatives for the electricity sector installations granted support and built to date are es- As well as from the electricity certificates system, wind timated to be capable of producing around 8.4 GWh power has benefited from a special ‘Pilot Projects’ of renewable electricity a year (Informant 1, Swedish scheme in support of technology development and Energy Agency, 2013). The Government has allocated market introduction in offshore and mountain areas. a further SEK 210m for this scheme for 2013–16 Projects granted support over the period 2003–12 are (Swedish Energy Agency 2013g). expected to generate some 1.44 TWh of renewable electricity per year (Swedish Energy Agency 2013c).

4.2.4 Residential and commercial/institutional

This initiative ends in 2013.

sector

The Vindval (‘Wind Choices’) programme is a network-oriented initiative aiming to strengthen the Greenhouse gas emissions from individual heating of planning and permitting processes associated with homes and commercial and institutional premises wind power schemes, including research into effects (i.e. heating other than district heating) fell dramaton the environment, animals and humans. In 2012, the ically from just under 9 Mt CO 2 eq to around 1.4 Mt Swedish Energy Agency approved a new concerted CO 2 eq per year between 1990 and 2011 (Swedish commitment of SEK 4.6m for further processing and Environmental Protection Agency 2013b). Direct

4. Policies and measures 47

emissions from this sector now make up only around Estimate of aggregate effects of economic 3% of Sweden’s total emissions of greenhouse gases instruments in the residential and commercial/ (Swedish Energy Agency 2012f). institutional sector Energy use in the sector in 2011 accounted for some Between the early 1990s and the present day, carbon 40% of final energy use in Sweden (Swedish Energy dioxide and energy taxes have helped to phase out oil- Agency 2012e). The use of energy for heating showed a based and electric heating. Analysis of model estimadownward trend in the first decade of the 21st century. tes based on MARKAL-NORDIC shows that drivers Use of electricity for domestic equipment and lighting for a switch to other heating options exist in both the and for common building services, on the other hand, scenario retaining 1990 policy instruments and the increased (Swedish Energy Agency 2012f). one based on current levels of instruments, but that the incentive to replace existing oil-fired heating is Policies and measures in the residential and greater in the scenario in which taxes have been devecommercial/institutional sector loped and raised to today’s levels (see Fig. 4.3). It is rea- The energy and carbon dioxide taxes can be regarded sonable to assume, moreover, that the reduction in as instruments that have significantly contributed to emissions from this sector would have been slower if reducing the use of fossil fuels in this sector in recent instruments had not been changed and tightened up decades. The aggregate level of taxes on fossil fuel since 1990. The proportion of heat pumps is also apuse for heating in the residential and commercial/ preciably higher in the current instruments scenario, institutional sector has risen steadily since 1990, owing to higher electricity prices and higher taxes on making it considerably more expensive to burn these fuels than it would have been if energy taxation had 1500 been kept at its 1990 level (Profu 2013). This is shown in Fig. 4.2. Alongside the carbon dioxide and energy taxes, 1000 Electricity there are a number of instruments targeted at energy certificates heat use in homes and commercial and institutional prem- h CO 2 tax ises. Some of the more important ones are building Energy tax 500 K/MW regulations, energy performance certificates, and the SE Operation & maintenance Ecodesign, Energy Labelling and Energy Efficiency Fuel Directives. In addition, there are instruments such 0 Capital cost as technology procurement, network initiatives and -based) information campaigns at the local, regional and na- District heating tional levels. Air–air heat pump Pellet-fired boiler Existing oil-fired boiler Rock-source heat pump Electric heating (water 1500 Residential and services 600

500 1000 Electricity heat certificates h CO tax 400 2 heat Wh K/MW Energy tax Natural gas 500 /M SE 300 Operation & Oil maintenance (2010) Biofuels K 200 Fuel 0 SE Capital cost p 100 -based) 0 District heating Air–air heat pump Pellet-fired boiler 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Existing oil-fired boiler Rock-source heat pum Electric heating (water Figure 4.2 Policy instruments affecting light fuel oil, bio- Figure 4.3 Heat production costs in single-family houses

fuels and natural gas in the residential and services sector: with different heating alternatives, in the scenarios based development between 1990 and 2012, and model assump- on current (top diagram) and 1990 policy instrument levels tion for 2015 (constant 2010 prices) (Profu 2013). (lower diagram) (Profu 2013).

48 4. Policies and measures

electricity, which discourage the use of other forms of such certificates (Swedish National Board of Housing, electric heating. Building and Planning 2013). As from 1 July 2012, the By 2030, according to the model’s scenarios, fossil- provisions have been amended, one change being that based heating will be phased out altogether in the a certificate has to be shown and handed over when a residential sector with current instruments, whereas property is sold or rented out. there would still have been a certain proportion of fossil fuels left if instruments had remained at 1990 Ecodesign and energy labelling levels (Profu 2013). The Ecodesign Directive (2009/125/EC) has been transposed into Swedish legislation by the Ecodesign Building regulations Act (SFS 2008:112). Legally binding ecodesign require- The earlier Act on Technical Requirements for Con- ments are drawn up in the form of product-specific EU struction Works etc. (SFS 1994:847) was repealed in regulations, which have direct application in the May 2011 with the introduction of the new Planning member states. This directive results in energy savings and Building Act (PBA). The Building Regulations of by prohibiting the least energy-efficient products. The the Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and range of products covered by it is constantly growing, Planning (BBR) contain mandatory provisions and gene- with requirements introduced, for example, for air– ral recommendations to ensure compliance with the air heat pumps and lighting. Requirements for elec- PBA, the new Planning and Building Ordinance and tric, gas- and oil-fired boilers and for other heat pumps other statutes (Swedish National Board of Housing, have recently been adopted, but not yet taken effect. Building and Planning 2011a). Buildings are to be de- Mandatory energy labelling of certain domestic apsigned in such a way that energy use is limited by low pliances has existed in the EU since 1995, but in 2011 heat losses, low cooling requirements, and efficient use it assumed a new appearance, with the introduction of of heat, cooling and electricity (Swedish National energy labelling for televisions and an update of label- Board of Housing, Building and Planning 2011b). The ling of refrigerators, freezers, dishwashers and washing most recent tightening of the building regulations’ en- machines. Sweden has an active programme of market ergy requirements took effect on 1 January 2012. Since surveillance, involving both supervision of dealers and autumn 2013, a review of these requirements has been laboratory tests of products. New products to be energyunder way. In addition, the Board of Housing, Building labelled in 2013 include air–air heat pumps and LED and Planning’s general recommendations on energy lamps. The Commission estimates that the ecodesign performance were incorporated in the regulations on 1 and energy labelling requirements adopted to date January 2012. With this change, alterations and exten- could, by 2020, save 484 TWh of electricity per year sions are also covered by the building regulations, across the EU. In addition, there will be savings from although the requirements normally only apply to the boilers and water heaters of 653 TWh of primary altered part of a building (Swedish Energy Agency 2012f). energy, comprising electricity, oil and gas (Swedish Energy Agency 2013i). For Sweden, the ecodesign and Energy performance certificates energy labelling requirements could bring savings of Directive 2010/31/EU on the energy performance of over 30 TWh by 2020 (Informant 2, Swedish Energy buildings has been incorporated into Swedish legisla- Agency, 2013). tion by, among other enactments, the PBA and the Energy Performance Certificates Act (SFS 2006:985), Technology procurement and network initiatives which first took effect in 2006. Owners of multi- Technology procurement is an instrument designed to dwelling buildings and commercial and institutional initiate a market transition and disseminate new, effipremises are now required by law to obtain an energy cient technology – new products, systems or processes. performance certificate, setting out the energy use of Network-based procurement of technology is an aptheir building and certain parameters regarding the proach that encompasses the entire decision-making indoor environment. The aim is to promote efficient process, from pre-study and purchaser group to speciuse of energy and a healthy indoor environment, by fication of requirements and the spread and further ensuring that property owners have a better under- development of new, energy-efficient technology. It is standing of what measures would cost-effectively im- being used, for example, in the areas of heating and prove the energy performance of their buildings. Since control, ventilation and lighting (Swedish Energy energy performance certificates were introduced, Agency 2013j). Purchaser groups exist for housing over 430,000 buildings have been registered with the (BeBo), commercial and institutional premises (BeLok) Board of Housing, Building and Planning as holding and food distribution (BeLivs). There is also a network

4. Policies and measures 49

for public sector bodies that rent premises, HyLok of 1990 instruments. Emission reductions could be (Swedish Energy Agency 2013f). The existing network achieved compared with the 1990 case if the price inprojects for housing and premises are estimated to creases to € 40 by 2030, whereas there will be no rehave yielded accumulated energy efficiency improve- duction with a lower price of € 10. ments of 2 and 117 GWh, respectively. The large dif- The Energy Efficiency Programme (PFE) and the ference in the measured impacts is mainly due to the F-gas Regulation are not included in the MARKALtypes of projects involved and degree of follow-up of NORDIC model. network activities (Swedish Energy Agency 2013k).

Increased carbon dioxide tax for non-EU ETS

4.2.5 Industrial emissions from fuel combustion industry, and energy tax on fossil fuels for heating in and processes (including emissions of industry fluorinated greenhouse gases) Taxation of fossil fuels used in sections of industry

Emissions from industrial combustion in 2011 were outside the EU ETS was raised on 1 January 2011 from around 9.5 Mt CO 2 eq, some 21% lower than in 1990 21% to 30% of the standard rate of carbon dioxide tax. (12.1 Mt CO 2 eq). The principal reductions have There will be a further increase in 2015, to 60% of the occurred in the paper and pulp industry. standard rate. No carbon dioxide tax is payable on Industrial process emissions in 2011 amounted to fossil fuels used in industrial plants included in the approx. 6.7 Mt CO 2 eq, an increase of about 5% on trading system. 1990. Process emissions vary widely from one year to Since 1 January 2011, energy tax on fossil heating another, partly depending on the economic situation. fuels has been levied according to their energy content, significantly increasing the tax on LPG, natural Policies and measures in the industrial sector gas, coal and coke. On fuels used in industrial manu- The instruments primarily affecting combustion emis- facturing processes, inside and outside the trading sions from industry are the EU Emissions Trading system, 30% of the standard energy tax is paid. System, energy and carbon dioxide taxes, the electri- When these tax increases were decided, it was esticity certificates system, the Programme for Energy mated that they would result in overall emission re- Efficiency in Energy-Intensive Industry (PFE) and the ductions of 0.4 Mt CO 2 eq in 2015 and 2020, beyond Environmental Code. those projected. This assessment covered the use of Industrial process emissions have come almost fuels for heating both in non-EU ETS industry and in en tirely within the scope of the EU ETS since its agriculture, forestry and pisciculture. expansion for the third trading period (2013–20). They are regulated above all by the Environmental Code’s Programme for Energy Efficiency in Energy-Intensive requirement to use the ‘best possible technology’. Industry Emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases are also An instrument designed to improve industrial energy partly governed by an EU regulation and directive efficiency is the Programme for Energy Efficiency in covering certain emissions of fluorinated gases. Energy-Intensive Industry (PFE). This five-year programme offered companies an exemption from the Estimate of aggregate effects of economic energy tax on the electricity used in manufacturing proinstruments in the industrial sector cesses, in exchange for a commitment, in the first two According to estimates made using the MARKAL- years, to introduce an energy management system and NORDIC modelling tool, the effect of economic in- carry out an energy survey to analyse the company’s postruments on combustion-related emissions in this tential to take energy efficiency measures. Firms also sector would have been somewhat greater, or at least undertook to implement, during the programme as great, if 1990 policy instruments had been retained. period, measures to improve electricity efficiency with The difference in emissions between the 1990 and a payback time of less than three years. current instruments scenarios is consistently small. The first period of the programme ran from 2004 to The estimates suggest that, looking beyond 2020, the 2009, and the end result was that the hundred energyeffect of current instruments will be greater than if intensive industrial companies participating achieved 1990 instruments had been retained, provided that electricity savings of 1.45 TWh per year (Swedish Energy EU ETS allowance prices are considerably higher than Agency 2013l). It is difficult to distinguish the exact at present ( € 40 in 2030). The differences, though, are effect of PFE, as the economic benefits of the measures very small. If the allowance price were only to rise to taken were enhanced by the sharp rise in industrial elec- € 10 by 2030, the effect would be comparable to that tricity prices since the beginning of the 2000s.

50 4. Policies and measures

The PFE Act, which established the programme, ceased out there are to be met within four years and could to have effect at the end of 2012, as the 2008 EU guide- halve emissions from aluminium production. lines on state aid for environmental protection mean that Since 2006, the use of certain F-gases has been conthere is no basis for commencing new programme periods trolled by EU Regulation No 842/2006, which priafter that date. However, the repealed Act continues to marily applies to the use of F-gases in refrigeration, air apply to companies approved as participants before conditioning and heat pump equipment, as well as in the end of 2012. At present, 94 companies, together ac- fire protection systems. counting for 72% of industrial energy use, are still taking When the EU’s F-gas legislation was introduced in part. Participating firms are allowed to complete the pro- Sweden, it was expected to reduce emissions by about gramme period running from 2013 to 2017. In practice, 0.7 Mt CO 2 eq/year by 2020, compared with if it had however, some 90% of them, and an even higher propor- not been introduced. To date, total F-gas emissions tion of their total energy use, will exit the programme in have admittedly fallen, but most of the reduction has June 2014, when the companies involved from the outset occurred in industry and not in the applications covered complete their programme period (Informant 4, Swedish by the F-gas Regulation. Energy Agency). Work is in progress to find policy in- In autumn 2012, the European Commission prostruments that will continue to encourage energy-inten- posed a tightening of the regulation, aimed at cutting sive industry to improve its electricity efficiency (Min- emissions by two-thirds from present levels by 2030. istry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications 2013). The proposal also includes a ban on the use of F-gases in certain types of equipment for which climate- Energy survey grants for SMEs and an expansion of friendly alternatives are available. A decision is exenergy advice pected in 2014. Support for energy surveys of small and medium-sized

enterprises and farms was introduced in 2010 and will 4.2.6 Transport

continue at least until the end of 2014. Grants cover Emissions of greenhouse gases from the Swedish trans- 50% of the cost of a survey, up to a maximum of SEK port sector in 2011 made up 33% of the country’s ag- 30,000, and are available to businesses using more than gregate reported greenhouse gas emissions, with road 500 MWh of energy a year. Farms with at least 100 transport as the dominant source, accounting for over livestock units are eligible even if they use less energy. 90% of the total for the sector. Emissions from domestic The last few years have seen an expansion of active transport have increased since 1990, reaching a peak in networking initiatives relating to energy use, targeted 2006–07, when they were 12–13% higher than in 1990. at businesses both large and small, partly with the aim Since then, emissions have declined, especially from of maximising the impact of instruments such as PFE cars, and in 2012 they were just 2% up on 1990 levels. and energy survey grants. Between 2009 and 2012, road transport emissions fell by 5.6% (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency EU F-gas Regulation and the Environmental Code official statistics). Over the same period, the share of re- Emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases) have newable energy rose from 5.4% (Swedish Energy Agency risen sharply since 1990. The biggest increase is due to 2010b) to 8.1% (Swedish Energy Agency 2013m). the replacement of ozone-depleting refrigerants with The decrease in emissions since 2006 can be attribu ted hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which do not harm the to a number of policy instruments introduced both ozone layer but are very powerful greenhouse gases. nationally and at EU level, which have resulted in more Emissions of F-gases in Sweden in 2011 totalled energy-efficient vehicles and an increased share of around 1.1 Mt CO 2 eq, an increase of 0.6 Mt CO 2 eq renewable energy. Without the growth in traffic that has compared with 1990 and a decrease of 0.2 Mt CO 2 eq occurred, emissions would have been 15% lower than in from 2007 levels. 1990. According to the latest projection (Chapter 5), In industry, F-gases are emitted both from processes transport sector emissions will continue to decline up to (mainly in the aluminium industry) and from use of 2020 and 2030, but not enough to achieve the Governrefrigerants. Emissions of process-related F-gases fell ment’s priority of a vehicle fleet independent of fossil from 0.5 to 0.2 Mt CO 2 eq between 1990 and 2011, fuels by 2030, thereby risking the fulfilment of the vision partly as a result of the Environmental Code’s require- for 2050 (Swedish Transport Administration 2012b). ment to use the best technology. At the end of 2013, Partly for this reason, the Government has set up an the EU is expected to adopt a BREF (Best Available inquiry to define its priority of a fossil-independent vehicle Techniques reference document) for the non-ferrous fleet by 2030 and to identify ways of realising it. The inquiry metals industry. The performance requirements set presented its final report at the end of 2013.

4. Policies and measures 51

Targeted instruments: Renewable transport fuels

14 Low blends of ethanol in petrol and FAME 2 in diesel 12 have long been used in Sweden. Under the EU’s Fuel 10 Tax on petrol Quality Directive, fuel specifications now permit 10% 8 Pump price petrol Kr/litre ethanol in petrol and 7% FAME in diesel. With effect 6 Tax on diesel from 1 February 2013, to promote renewable energy in 4 Pump price diesel the road transport sector, sustainable biofuels in pet- 2 rol and diesel, in blends of up to 5% by volume, are ex- 0 empt from the whole of the carbon dioxide tax and 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 most of the energy tax (89% for biofuels in petrol and 84% for biofuels in diesel). E85 and other sustainable Figure 4.4 Retail prices and total taxes (energy tax, carbon high-blend biofuels and biofuels with no fossil content

dioxide tax and VAT) for diesel and 95 octane petrol (an nual

are entirely exempt from carbon dioxide and energy

averages). Current prices. Source: Collation of data from

tax on their biomass-based component. In the case of

Swedish Petroleum and Biofuels Institute (SPBI 2013).

sustainable hydrotreated vegetable and animal oils and fats (HVO), exemption from these taxes applies to General policy instruments: Vehicle fuel taxes up to 15% by volume of HVO in diesel fuel, with ef- Petrol and diesel are subject to both an energy tax fect from 1 January 2012. The system will shortly be and a carbon dioxide tax. In addition, value added tax changing, as the Government intends to introduce a (VAT) is charged on the sales value. The carbon di- quota obligation on 1 May 2014, which will increase oxide tax on vehicle fuels was introduced in 1991 and the quantities of ethanol and FAME blended with pethas since been raised in several stages. The introduc- rol and diesel. Biofuels will be required to make up a tion of and increase in this tax, however, have been total of at least 9.5% by volume of the volume of diesel partly offset by a simultaneous reduction of energy fuel subject to the obligation, with at least 3.5% by tax on vehicle fuels. Overall, the tax on these fuels has volume to consist of ‘specially designated’ biofuels. gone up, but in 2007 and 2008 increases in the total The proportion of biofuels in petrol is to be at least tax were overshadowed by rising pre-tax prices for 4.8% by volume of the volume covered by the quota petrol and diesel, due to higher crude oil prices (see obligation, rising to at least 7% by volume no later Fig. 4.4). The increase in the pre-tax prices of petrol than 1 May 2015. When the quota obligation is introand diesel has slowed growth in transport, encour- duced, moreover, energy tax on sustainable transport aged more energy-efficient vehicles and facilitated biofuels included in petrol or diesel is intended to be the introduction of transport biofuels. In accordance levied at rates corresponding to the energy tax on comwith the climate policy decision of 2009, the energy parable fossil fuels, calculated on an energy content basis. tax on diesel has been raised in two stages, in 2011 The quota obligation system is a market-based supand 2013, by a total of SEK 0.40/litre. In addition, port scheme, aimed at ensuring that a certain quantity of there is the annual index-linking of rates of energy transport biofuels is available on the market. High-blend and carbon dioxide tax on fuels and electricity. biofuels such as E85, and biogas, will remain exempt from the energy as well as the carbon dioxide tax. Support for research and demonstration Under the Renewable Fuels Act introduced in 2006, Support for research, development and demonstration all filling stations with sales above a certain level have is an important complement to pricing instruments. In to supply at least one renewable fuel. Just under tworecent years, some SEK 240m annually has been made thirds of all stations are subject to this requirement. available for research, demonstration and piloting of These targeted instruments to promote renewable transport biofuels. In 2012, SEK 1,240m was allocated transport fuels will help to realise the Government’s for the period 2013–16, a priority area being initiatives long-term priority of a vehicle fleet independent of to promote a fossil-independent vehicle fleet, includ- fossil fuels, thereby reducing the climate impact of the ing increased funding for technology verification and transport sector. demonstration. In the next few years, targeted research support for automotive technology, with a focus on de- Targeted instruments: Composition of the vehicle fleet veloping electric- and hybrid-vehicle technology within Sweden uses vehicle taxation as an instrument for the Swedish vehicle cluster and on transport biofuels reducing carbon dioxide emissions from light-duty etc., will amount to some SEK 400m a year. (Informant vehicles. 3, Swedish Energy Agency, 2013.) In 2006, a carbon dioxide-based annual vehicle tax 2 Fatty acid methyl ester, a form of biodiesel.

52 4. Policies and measures

was introduced for passenger cars from the year 2006 setting emission performance standards for new pasand later. This tax also applies to electric and hybrid senger cars and new vans as part of the Community’s cars and to other passenger cars meeting certain emis- integrated approach to reduce CO 2 emissions from sion requirements (Euro 4). As from 1 January 2011, light-duty vehicles. Under these regulations, new pasthe carbon dioxide-based vehicle tax applies, in addi- senger cars should not emit an average of more than tion, to motorhomes, light goods vehicles and light 130 g and new vans not more than 175 g CO 2 /km by buses. 2015 and 2017, respectively. The annual vehicle tax on diesel-powered light-duty vehicles is in general higher, owing to the lower tax on Effects of policy instruments in the transport sector diesel fuel compared with petrol. The higher tax on Since 2007, the upward trend in transport sector emisthese vehicles is calculated using a fuel factor. On top sions in Sweden has been reversed. Fig. 4.5 shows acof this, an environmental surcharge is added, to reflect tual emissions from 1990 to 2011 and a projection up the higher nitrogen oxide and particulate emissions to 2020, as well as an estimate of what the emissions from diesel vehicles. trend would have been and could be up to 2020 with- As from 1 July 2009, new vehicles with lower emis- out the fuel tax increases implemented since 1990. sions of carbon dioxide (green vehicles according to the The effects of these tax increases have been estimated old green vehicle definition) are exempt from annual on the basis of the nominal tax level, as a decision was vehicle tax for the first five years. On 1 January 2013, taken in 1994 to adjust the taxes for inflation. The more stringent criteria for the five-year exemption, in- overall effect of the tax increases on diesel and petrol volving weight-based carbon dioxide emission require- since 1990 is estimated to be around 2 Mt CO 2 /year ments, were introduced. The tax exemption was also lower emissions in 2010 and 2 Mt CO 2 /year lower extended to include motorhomes, light goods vehicles emissions in both 2015 and 2020, compared with if the and light buses. This means that passenger cars, motor- 1990 nominal level of taxation had been retained. The homes, light goods vehicles and light buses brought into actual reduction from 2007 to the present can mainly use in Sweden for the first time on or after 1 January be attributed to other factors than fuel taxes, such as 2013 are exempt from annual vehicle tax for the first a recession, rising crude oil prices and the introducfive years, provided that their carbon dioxide emissions tion of other policy instruments. (according to data in the Road Traffic Registry) do not Transport is a complex sector, with a range of differexceed a maximum level calculated in relation to the ent stakeholders influencing transport demand, vehicle’s weight (green vehicles according to the new modes of transport used, vehicle and fuel characterisdefinition). Heavier vehicles that are energy-efficient tics and, ultimately, emission levels. As indicated, may therefore also qualify for the exemption. On Sweden uses a significant number of policy instru- 1 August 2007 a financial incentive was introduced in ments that are intended to address the various market the form of a grant towards the purchase cost of pas- imperfections, barriers and obstacles to a transition senger cars causing less damage to the environment. to low emissions in the sector. In many cases, it is not This green vehicle rebate was discontinued on 1 July possible to determine the exact effect of each of these 2009. At the beginning of 2012, a super-green vehicle instruments. rebate of up to SEK 40,000 was introduced for new The energy efficiency of the Swedish car fleet has vehicles emitting a maximum of 50 g CO 2 /km (super- improved substantially in recent years. As a result, avgreen vehicles). 25 000 Roughly two-thirds of all cars sold in Sweden are 20 000 bought by legal entities (Swedish Transport Adminis- /year 2 tration 2013a). Many of them are company cars that are 15 000 used privately, a benefit on which tax is payable. The Ktonnes CO 10 000 ‘benefit in kind’ value on which private individuals are 5 000 taxed for this has been reduced for company vehicles 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 that are equipped with a gas engine or a hybrid or fully Actual and projected emissions Emissions with taxes at 1990 levels (nominal) electric motor, to increase the incentive to choose such vehicles. There may also be a number of local advan- Figure 4.5 Greenhouse gas emissions from road transport tages to buying a green car, such as free parking in cer- 1990–2011 and projection to 2020 with fuel taxes detain municipalities. In addition to Swedish policy in- cided (nominal prices), compared with estimated emissions struments, manufacturers selling vehicles in the EU are if fuel taxes had been kept at 1990 levels. 3 (SPBI 2013 subject to EU Regulations Nos 443/2009 and 510/2011 and Swedish Tax Agency 2013e.)

3 Estimate with sliding elasticities from 0.3 to 0.7 for private transport and from 0.1 to 0.2 for commercial transport. A simplified method has been used, which probably slightly overestimates the tax effect. 4. Policies and measures 53

200 The existence of instruments to promote transport 189 biofuels is crucial to their use, since they still cost 181 174 160 159 154 164 more to produce than fossil fuels. In all, the use of 160 146 151 140 142 138 136 /km 2 120 transport biofuels verified as sustainable achieved g CO emission reductions in 2011 of about 0.94 Mt CO 2 (Swedish Energy Agency 2012g). 80

40 TTW W hh 8 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 7 EU-27 Sweden 6 5 Biogas

Trends in carbon dioxide emissions (g/km) from

4 Figure 4.6 Biodiesel incl. HVO 3 newly registered cars in the EU-27 (for 2006, EU-24) and 2 Ethanol in Sweden, 2006–12. 1 0 Source: Swedish Transport Administration 2013b. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Figure 4.8 Use of transport biofuels in Sweden from 2004 erage emissions from new cars in Sweden were 138 g to 2012. CO 2 /km in 2012, with an average for the entire vehicle Source: Swedish Energy Agency 2013. fleet of 178 g CO 2 /km (see Fig. 4.6). This is partly due to a sharp rise in the proportion of diesel cars, which The share of renewable energy in the transport sector are more energy-efficient than petrol-engine vehicles. (calculated using the method prescribed in the Renewa- The main instrument behind this trend is the EU’s bles Directive, and including, for example, electriccarbon dioxide standards for passenger cars, but Swed- ity for railways) was 11.8% in 2012, an increase of 3.9 ish instruments such as the carbon-differentiated percentage points compared with 2010. The share of vehicle tax and tax exemption for green vehicles transport biofuels (on an energy content basis) was (including fuel-efficient diesels) are also of signifi- 8.1%, 2.4 percentage points up on 2010. Use of ethanol 3 3 cance. Other vehicle-specific instruments, such as increased somewhat, from 400,000 m to 407,000 m , reduced ‘benefit in kind’ values for electric and flexible- between 2010 and 2012. Biodiesel use rose very sharply, 3 3 fuel company cars, and local instruments like parking from 225,000 m to 404,000 m , over the same period, subsidies, have mainly encouraged flexible-fuel vehi- while biogas increased from 59 to 83 million m 3 . cles, rather than energy efficiency. (Swedish Energy Agency 2013m.) Green vehicles previously consisted mainly of those The relevant stakeholders in Sweden have endeavrun on E85, but sales have increasingly shifted towards oured to build up the production of transport biofufuel-efficient vehicles (see Fig. 4.7). This is an effect els with major climate benefits, since such benefits not only of policy instruments, but also to a large have been the primary driver of investments in these extent of factors such as prevailing norms in society. fuels in the country. Half of all transport biofuel use Demand for E85 (and E85 vehicles), for instance, has in Sweden now meets the emission reduction requirefluctuated sharply, influenced partly by how the ment that will apply from 2017 (Swedish Energy media have chosen to describe the fuel. Agency 2012g).

Consideration of climate in long-term

100

infrastructure planning

90 80 Long-term planning of infrastructure includes opera- 70 Electric and tion and maintenance measures, investments in new plug-in hybrid infrastructure, research, targeted environmental meas- 60 Hybrid < 120 g 50 Gas ures affecting existing infrastructure, and minor alter- 40 Petrol < 120 g 30 ations such as public transport lanes. Problems and Diesel < 120 g 20 E85 shortcomings are identified and remedied according to 10 the ‘four-step principle’. This is a step-by-step process 0 for addressing problems and deficiencies in the trans- 8 9 0 1 2 -0 -0 -1 -1 -1 Jan-08 Apr July-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr July-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr July-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr July-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr July-12 Oct-12 port system, while using resources in a sustainable Figure 4.7 Distribution of new green cars by type. way.

Source: Johansson 2013.

54 4. Policies and measures

Box 4.6 – The four-step principle organic industrial waste was incinerated for energy recovery. The municipal waste planning requirement • Rethink The first step is to consider measures that could influence (NFS 2006:6), introduced in 1991, has also contributed transport and travel needs and choices of transport mode. to the emission reductions achieved. • Optimise The second step is to implement measures that will enable Aggregate effect of policies and measures in the more efficient use to be made of existing infrastructure.

waste sector

• Rebuild Sweden’s Third National Communication (2001) pre- The third step involves limited reconstruction. sented the results of an analysis of the combined effect • Build new of policy instruments influencing methane emissions The fourth step involves new investment and/or major from landfills. The assessment covered instruments inreconstruction work. troduced in the 1990s and those planned at the time for the early 2000s (and subsequently introduced). It The Swedish Transport Administration is responsi- showed that, in a scenario based on policy instruments ble for long-term planning of all modes of transport. decided on at that time, emissions would end up This creates a basis for intermodal measures and coor- around 1.4 Mt CO 2 eq lower in 2010 than in a scenario dination benefits. An intermodal approach is central based on 1990 instruments. By 2020, the difference to long-term planning and, among other things, offers was projected to be 1.9 Mt CO 2 eq. This is still deemed greater scope to consider the environment when choos- a reasonable estimate. ing solutions. Planning is undertaken in dialogue with Overall, the landfill bans are judged to have had local and regional planning bodies. Under the Plan- the greatest impact in terms of reducing landfill of ning and Building Act (SFS 2010:900), too, there is a organic material, which will result in lower emissions clear requirement to take environmental and climate of methane in the future. Demand for district heating issues into account in planning. has also strongly encouraged diversion from landfill to incineration.

4.2.7 Waste While landfill emissions have decreased, waste in-

Methane emissions from landfill sites were around 1.3 cineration in centralised plants for district heating and Mt CO 2 eq in 2011, an estimated reduction of some power generation has increased. Incinerated house- 57% since 1990. Landfill emissions are expected to hold waste generates some emissions of greenhouse continue falling sharply over the next ten years (see gases, since it consists partly of material of fossil Chapter 5). The factors behind this decline are an origin, mainly plastics. However, incineration of waste expansion of methane recovery from landfills and re- for the production of heat and electricity results in adduced landfill disposal of organic material, combined ditional greenhouse gas emission reductions, beyond with increases in recovery of materials and waste in- the decrease in methane from landfills, if it is assumed cineration with energy recovery. These measures are that it replaces electricity and district heating that a consequence of a series of policy instruments at both would otherwise have been produced using fuels with national and EU level. a higher fossil carbon content, such as coal and oil. In 2011, 13.5 TWh of heat and 2 TWh of electricity were Policies and measures in the waste sector generated from the incineration of household and similar waste in efficient plants with stringent air Landfill tax, bans on landfill disposal, and municipal pollution controls. The effect of the growth in waste waste planning incineration in Sweden since 1990 is included in the In 2000 a tax was imposed on waste disposed of to estimate of aggregate effects of economic instruments landfill (SFS 1999:673), and since then bans have been in the energy supply sector, presented in 4.2.3. introduced on landfilling of separated combustible material (2002) and of organic material (2005) (SFS

2001:512). Certain exemptions from these prohibi- 4.2.8 Agriculture and forestry

tions have been granted, but they are very limited in Agricultural production gives rise to greenhouse gas scale compared with the overall quantities of waste. In emissions from land use, livestock (in particular rumin- 2011, less than 1% of all household waste produced ants such as cattle and sheep), and management of ferwas sent to landfill. The remainder went either to in- tilisers and manure, as well as from the use of fossil fuels. cineration with energy recovery (51%) or to materials Emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from farmrecovery, including biological treatment (48%). Most ing make up over 10% of total greenhouse gas emis-

4. Policies and measures 55

sions in Sweden. Nitrous oxide emissions, especially, machinery. This use has shown a slight rise since 1990, have fallen since 1990, but those of methane are also while the increase in volumes of production in both declining. Overall, emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture and forestry has been larger. Consumption Swedish agriculture decreased by about 14% over the of fuel oil for greenhouses and to heat other buildings period 1990–2011. in these sectors is decreasing, partly owing to its re- Nitrous oxide emissions are linked to the use of min- placement with biofuels. eral fertilisers and animal manure. They result from conversion in the soil of nitrogen from those sources, Policies and measures in the agricultural sector and the fall in emissions can be attributed to reduced As yet, there are relatively few policy instruments diruse of both fertilisers and manure. Use of manure is ectly targeted at limiting greenhouse gas emissions chiefly influenced by the number of dairy cattle, which from Swedish agriculture. Interest in mitigating the has declined. Action programmes introduced to curb sector’s climate impact has grown, however, and the nitrogen losses to water and air in agriculture have Government has taken a number of initiatives recently also contributed to the trend, as has a shift to slurry to reduce fossil fuel use in farming, and to increase systems for manure management. Yet another explana- awareness and encourage the use of measures that will tion for the decrease in total use of fertilisers and curb emissions of greenhouse gases from manure and manure is a contraction of the arable area. fertiliser management and from land use. Emissions of methane have fallen as a result of the At the Government’s request, the Swedish Board of declining dairy herd, despite a rise in emissions per Agriculture drew up and, in spring 2010, presented head of cattle over the period. While numbers of cattle proposals for an action programme to reduce nutri- (chiefly dairy) in Swedish agriculture have decreased, ent losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculhowever, consumption and imports of beef have in- ture. No decision was taken by the Government to creased. implement the programme in its entirety, but it did The land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) result in further assignments to the Board from the sector represented a large net sink for carbon dioxide Government, as well as an increased commitment, over the period 1990–2011. In 2011, the sector as a for example, to climate and energy advice to farm whole was responsible for a net removal of some 35 Mt enterprises. Over the period 2011–16, the Board of CO 2 . By far the dominant category in this sector is Agriculture judges that production and use of reforest land, accounting for a net uptake of 39 Mt CO 2 . newable energy are the measures that will have the Cropland generated emissions of about 1.3 Mt CO 2 , greatest effect. Measures to reduce the climate while the change in the carbon stock in grassland was impact of agricultural production more substantially small, 0.001 Mt CO 2 . Throughout the period since in the longer term could include more efficient use 1990, forest growth has exceeded forest felling. The of input materials, an expansion of anaerobic digestion total standing volume of timber has increased by of animal manure, reconversion of farmland with a about 20%. Net removals of carbon dioxide resulting high organic content to wetlands, reduced use of fossil from LULUCF are determined largely by changes in energy, and increased sequestration of carbon in agricarbon stocks in living biomass. These changes are a cultural soils. result of annual forest growth (uptake of carbon dioxide) and losses due to felling and mortality (emissions EU Common Agricultural Policy of carbon dioxide). Removals vary quite widely from The EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) signifiyear to year, largely because felling varies according to cantly affects the extent, direction and profitability of the demand for timber products. Analogously with agriculture in Sweden. In 2003, an agreement was these fluctuations in living biomass, carbon stock reached to reform the policy, referred to as the Midchanges in dead organic matter also vary, as increased Term Review (MTR). The biggest change was that most felling produces more stumps. Gross forest growth direct support, which is one element of the CAP, was and felling both show an upward trend. At present, decoupled from production. Sweden did, however, annual growth and harvesting stand at around 120 and retain some production-related aid until as recently 90 million m 3 standing volume, respectively. The trend as 2012, when the last coupled support scheme, the in net uptake by living biomass is declining, primarily special beef premium, was withdrawn. because felling increased more than growth through- The Swedish Rural Development Programme (RDP) out the reported period 1990–2011. for the period 2007–13 is funded in equal shares by the Energy use in agriculture, forestry and fisheries con- EU and the Swedish state. It comprises support for sists primarily of the use of diesel for farm and forest rural development, environmental improvements, and

56 4. Policies and measures

greater competitiveness in agriculture, forestry, horti- rural development measures were introduced to culture, reindeer herding and food processing. Each meet challenges in the areas of climate, water mancounty administrative board has developed an imple- agement and preservation of biodiversity, and in the mentation strategy for the RDP at county level and dairy sector. Funds from Pillar 1 (direct support) sets regional priorities, for instance, for the investment were transferred to the rural development budget to and project support components of the programme. address these priority areas. In the Swedish RDP, a Agri-environment payments have been designed to further SEK 500m was made available for climate and achieve environmental objectives concerned with energy initiatives over the period 2010–13. The preserving an open agricultural landscape, conserv- Swedish Board of Agriculture has estimated that the ing biodiversity, and reducing nutrient losses to effect of this funding will be to reduce Sweden’s water, partly through the re-creation of wetlands. annual greenhouse gas emissions by 0.5 Mt CO 2 eq, Measures introduced to curb nutrient losses may in primarily through switching from fossil energy to certain cases also cut emissions of nitrous oxide, par- renewable energy from agriculture and through ticularly those that reduce the amount of available greater energy efficiency. nitrogen in soil and water. Nitrous oxide emissions may in addition be mitigated by certain manure and Changes to the energy and carbon dioxide taxes on fertiliser management options, but there are also fuels used in agriculture, forestry and pisciculture measures that can limit nitrogen losses and benefit The carbon dioxide tax on fuels used for heating in inbiodiversity, yet increase releases of nitrous oxide. dustry outside the EU ETS and in agriculture, forestry Regeneration of wetlands on drained peatland can and pisciculture was raised on 1 January 2011 from reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 21% to 30% of the standard rate. There will be a fur- In 2008 the Government decided to introduce, as ther increase in 2015, to 60% of the standard rate. part of the RDP, investment support for biogas pro- In addition to the general relief on the carbon diduction, with total funding of SEK 200m for 2009– oxide tax, enterprises can currently claim a further 13. In all, SEK 159m of this sum has been disbursed reduction under what is known as the 1.2% rule. This for biogas investments. As a result, 30 new biogas tax relief primarily takes effect for enterprises in the production plants are in operation and another 20 greenhouse horticulture sector. The Riksdag has deare at the planning and design stage. In its Budget Bill cided that it is to end in 2015. for 2014, the Government proposes that SEK 240m Previously, SEK 2.38 of the carbon dioxide tax on be made available for a ‘dual environmental benefit’ diesel used in agricultural machinery was refunded, support scheme to promote the production of renew- but this refund is being scaled back. It was lowered to able energy over the period 2014–23. This is a pilot SEK 2.10 in 2011, and to SEK 1.70 in 2013. In 2015 it project that will encourage anaerobic digestion of will be cut to SEK 0.90. animal manure by means of a payment of around SEK The energy tax on diesel has been raised in two 0.20 per kWh of raw methane produced. Increased stages in recent years, by SEK 0.20 in 2011 and a further digestion of manure offers a dual environmental SEK 0.20 in 2013. benefit, reducing both emissions of greenhouse gases and eutrophication of fresh and marine waters. In ad- Policies and measures in forestry dition, the biogas can be used to generate electricity Measures in forestry that can contribute to a reduced or heat, or as a vehicle fuel. impact on climate include: Investment support is also provided for the growing • Increasing biomass growth through forestry of perennial energy crops, which help to reduce green- methods such as improved propagating material, house gas emissions in other sectors, as well as increas- intensified reforestation practices and continued ing the stock of carbon in the soil. There are currently afforestation, as well as enhancing the carbon some 13,000 ha of short-rotation coppice willow, the stock in forest soils by methods such as changes perennial energy crop grown on the largest scale. in silvicultural systems and setting aside of land Grants may in addition be available from the RDP in reserves and the like. to promote a shift to renewable energy and more ef- • Avoiding forestry methods which increase greenficient energy use in greenhouses and agricultural house gas emissions from forest soils, and in buildings. other respects adapting forestry to reduce the In 2007, the European Commission carried out a risk of future emissions as the climate changes. review of implementation of the MTR, known as the • Increasing the amount of carbon stored in ‘Health Check’. As a result of the review, additional harvested wood products.

4. Policies and measures 57

• Replacing fossil energy with bioenergy, includ- est owners and professionals with knowledge that will ing from harvesting residues. enable greater use to be made of forests for bioenergy • Replacing energy-intensive materials with purposes. forest raw materials. Another strand to the Forest Kingdom initiative is a three-year programme to help achieve its goal of creat- The first two types of measures are the ones that will ing conditions for more jobs in the Swedish countryprimarily affect carbon sequestration in the LULUCF side. The programme seeks to support the developsector, while the last three could help to reduce emis- ment of sustainable forestry methods that will insions in other sectors. The effects of forestry measures crease production, based on a systematic, iterative on sequestration of carbon are presented as part of the approach of active learning. These methods are to be background analysis commissioned by the Govern- developed in combination with effective and funcment for its ‘roadmap towards a Sweden with no net tional consideration for the environment. Examples of climate emissions by 2050’ (Swedish Environmental measures that may be analysed are tree species selec- Protection Agency 2012a). tion, use of improved planting material and genetic variation, thinning regimes, shortened rotation times,

Policy, legislation and forest certification schemes silvicultural systems other than even-aged manage-

ment, and fertilisation based on actual needs. In devel- Forest policy oping methods, the social values of forests are to be Swedish forest policy has two overarching, coequal ob- taken into account. To implement the programme, jectives, relating to production and the environment. funding will be increased by a total of SEK 60m over The environmental objective is as follows: The natural the period 2013–15. productive capacity of forest land should be preserved. Biodiversity and genetic variation in forests Legislation should be secured. Forests should be managed in a The methods used in forestry are chiefly regulated by manner that enables plant and animal species occur- provisions in the Forestry Act and the Environmental ring there naturally to survive in natural conditions Code. At present, there are no rules specifically deand in viable populations. Threatened species and signed to promote increased uptake of carbon dioxhabitats should be protected. The cultural heritage ide. On the other hand, existing provisions do affect assets of forests and their aesthetic and social values trends in carbon dioxide removals in various ways, in should be safeguarded. The production objective is: particular: Forests and forest lands should be used effectively and responsibly so that they produce high, sustainable • Provisions on forest management etc. in the Foryields. The direction of forestry production should be estry Act. Under this Act, new forest is required towards giving a free hand with regard to what forests to be established after felling, for example, and produce. Emphasis is placed in forest policy on the abandoned farmland is to be afforested no later significance of forests for climate, including the need than the third year after it is taken out of producfor increased forest growth. tion. These requirements are designed to ensure that full use is made of the timber-producing Government initiatives capacity of land, which is beneficial from a climate As part of the ‘Forest Kingdom’ initiative, central gov- point of view as it promotes uptake of carbon ernment advice to the forestry sector has been stepped dioxide by forest biomass and production of bioup, with a view to promoting effective and functional mass as a substitute for fossil fuels and energyconsideration for the environment and improved for- intensive materials. est management. To implement this initiative, funding is being increased by SEK 10m per year over the period • Provisions on land drainage in the Environmental 2012–15 (Ministry of Finance 2011). The Swedish Forest Code. In central parts of the southern Swedish Agency has mounted information campaigns on forestry highlands and north of the limes norrlandicus (the and climate change with support from the Rural Devel- biogeographical boundary of northern Sweden), opment Programme: ‘Forestry in a changed climate’ land drainage – defined as drainage with the aim and ‘Forest owners and climate’ (Swedish Forest Agency of permanently increasing the suitability of a 2013a and 2013b). In addition, it is running a forest property for a certain purpose – may only be unbioenergy project, also funded by the RDP (Swedish dertaken with a permit. In the rest of the country Forest Agency 2013c). This project aims to provide for- and on sites specially protected under the Ramsar

58 4. Policies and measures

Convention, such schemes are prohibited. Per- sion reductions achieved, for example in the district mit applications are considered by county ad- heating sector. The electricity certificates system has ministrative boards. Land drainage has declined rapidly increased the amount of renewable energy since the early 1990s and now occurs on a very available, including forest biofuels for electricity small scale. generation (see section 4.2.3).

• Conservation work (site protection, nature con- Sectoral responsibility servation agreements and voluntary set-aside of Since the early 1990s, forest policy has built on landland). Such measures not only preserve biodiver- owners having considerable freedom to make their sity, but also mean that carbon stocks in forest own decisions about the aims of their forestry and the biomass and soil carbon are maintained or con- operations they wish to undertake, at the same time as tinue to increase. Swedish forests used primarily they have an important part to play in achieving forest for timber – timber production forests – have policy objectives in the framework of their sectoral a relatively low average age and hence a large responsibility. capacity to store carbon, even long after a conser- One component of this sectoral responsibility is the vation measure (such as nature reserve or habitat voluntary third-party certification schemes which protection area designation, or a nature conserva- most of Sweden’s forest owners have joined. There are tion agreement) has been implemented. Section two such schemes, that of the Forest Stewardship 2.12 of this National Communication includes Council (FSC) and the Programme for the Endorseinformation on forest land that has been set aside ment of Forest Certification (PEFC). Both are based on for biodiversity conservation. In addition, there landowners undertaking to follow guidelines on susare proposals to set aside further areas of forest, tainable forestry in managing their land. Swedish legisas mentioned above. There are also targets for the lation sets a common standard for all productive conservation and protection of areas containing forest land regarding consideration for the environboth wetlands and forest land. Since such areas ment. Certification is designed to raise the bar even are usually excluded from felling, their stocks of higher as regards the ecological, economic and social carbon in biomass and soil will in most cases be aspects of forestry, and includes provisions for the vollarger than those of production forests. On the untary set-aside of forest land. Since many forest manother hand, the possibility of producing timber agers have signed up to certification schemes, the and biomass as a substitute for other materials areas being set aside have also increased. As a rule, this and as a source of biofuels – the substitution land is set aside from any form of management, or potential – will be lost. managed with the primary purpose of promoting biodiversity. The Government has previously emphasised that it is As a result of sectoral responsibility, more than 1 important now to analyse the scope for regulatory and million ha of land has been set aside voluntarily by the other policy instruments that could be considered forestry sector – without compensation from the state. with a view to further enhancing the contribution of These set-aside areas may also represent a contribuforestry to the cost-effective achievement of Swedish tion to increasing uptake of carbon dioxide. climate policy objectives. It was proposed that this analysis should include studies of possible incentives Swedish environmental objectives to increase sequestration of carbon in sinks, where ap- In 2011, the Government decided to give the All Party propriate, and to minimise greenhouse gas emissions Committee on Environmental Objectives an additionfrom land. The measures contemplated were not to al remit to propose a strategy for long-term sustainconflict with the production and environmental objec- able land use, aimed at achieving the generational goal tives of Swedish forestry. The Government is currently for the environment and the environmental quality considering how this analysis should be undertaken. objectives (Terms of reference 2011:91). An interim There are other instruments, too, which indirectly – by report was submitted in June 2013, concerning proinfluencing demand for forest raw materials for ener- tection and management of sites and an enhanced levgy supply and material substitution purposes – affect el of environmental consideration in forestry. A final forestry practice and hence fluxes of greenhouse gases. report is to be presented in June 2014. The interim Exempting biofuels from carbon dioxide and energy report includes proposals on setting aside additional taxes has increased the profitability of biomass fuels areas with biodiversity conservation as their primary from forests and been a major factor behind the emis- purpose, and on ways of developing consideration for

4. Policies and measures 59

the environment in forestry. These proposals have credit of 2.5 Mt CO 2 per year in the second commitbeen the subject of consultation and are currently be- ment period of the Protocol. Sweden has not decided ing considered in the Government Offices. whether additional voluntary activities under Article 3.4 will be included in its accounting for the second Implementation of Articles 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto period.

Protocol

For the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol 4.2.9 Shipping and aviation, including (2008–12), Sweden has decided that, in addition to international bunkers in Sweden

mandatory accounting for greenhouse gas emissions Emissions from domestic shipping and aviation are deand removals under Article 3.3, it will make use of clining in Sweden, and together made up only 5% forest management under Article 3.4 in calculating (around 1 Mt CO 2 eq) of total emissions from domesemissions and removals from LULUCF. Sweden follows tic transport in 2011. International shipping and avithe criteria for forest land deriving from the FAO def- ation refuelling in Sweden are responsible for larger inition and the IPCC’s good practice guidance. The emissions than their domestic counterparts, with a tomethodology and database used to calculate changes tal of about 8.3 Mt CO 2 eq in 2011 (6 Mt from shipin carbon stocks are developed on an ongoing basis. ping and 2.3 Mt from aviation). These emissions show Efforts in this area were for example reported by a slight downward trend since Sweden’s last National Sweden in its Fourth National Communication (Swed- Communication. However, over a longer period, from ish Environmental Protection Agency 2006). 1990 – when emissions from international marine and Under the Kyoto Protocol, the National Communica- aviation bunkers stood at 3.61 Mt CO 2 eq – there has tion is to include information on national legislative been a substantial rise. Marine bunkers show the or administrative procedures to ensure that imple- steepest increase. Under the Kyoto Protocol, each parmentation of Articles 3.3 and 3.4 also contributes to ty is to report on how it is working within the Internathe conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of tional Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and Internatural resources. Sweden’s current forest policy puts national Maritime Organisation (IMO) to help achieve great emphasis on using forests sustainably as a nat- and/or implement decisions in those organisations to ural resource and on conserving biodiversity. Under the limit greenhouse gas emissions. Forestry Act, forests are to be managed and harvested As from 1 January 2012, aviation is included in the in such a way as to contribute to sustainable forestry. EU ETS. The trading system covers flights and flight The provisions of environmental legislation on nature operators landing at or taking off from airports in the reserves and habitat protection areas provide long- EU, regardless of the country of departure or final term formal protection for forest areas of high bio- destination. In November 2012 the EU Commission logical value, and the Forestry Act stipulates that for- decided to temporarily exempt flights to and from ests must be managed using measures that meet good Europe, pending proposals from the ICAO for a global environmental standards. There has therefore been no market-based measure to limit the climate impact of need for supplementary legislation to conserve bio- aviation. The suspension will only apply until the end diversity and ensure sustainable use of natural re- of 2013 at the latest, however. sources as a consequence of implementation of Articles Within the ICAO, Sweden and the EU have been 3.3 and 3.4. Every year since 1990, Sweden has reported pressing for action to limit greenhouse gas emissions a net sink from land use (LULUCF) markedly in excess from aviation. At its session in September 2013, the of the maximum net removal of 2.13 Mt that Sweden ICAO Assembly decided to develop a global marketis allowed to claim credit for in the first commitment based measure, which is to be adopted in 2016 and period of the Kyoto Protocol. take effect in 2020. Drafting of proposals on the design For the second commitment period of the Kyoto and operation of this measure will continue up to Protocol (2013–20), the rules on accounting for 2016 when the decision is taken. LULUCF removals and emissions have changed. During Early in 2013, the ICAO’s Committee on Aviation this period, accounting for forest management and Environmental Protection (CAEP) agreed a metric changes in carbon stocks in harvested wood products system and measurement methodology to compare will be mandatory, while certain other activities will carbon dioxide emissions from different aircraft and be voluntary. The new rules on forest management also to set emission limits. The CAEP has also adopted a mean that changes in net emissions are to be accounted new document setting out a carbon dioxide certificafor against a reference level based on a business-as-usual tion requirement for aircraft, drawn up under the projection, with Sweden allowed to claim a maximum joint leadership of the Swedish Transport Agency and

60 4. Policies and measures

the US Federal Aviation Administration. A new stand- way so that the country can make an effective contriard in Annex 16 of the Chicago Convention, which bution to equitable and sustainable global developwill also include limits on carbon dioxide emissions ment. When decisions in a given policy area are judged from new aircraft, is expected to be adopted by the to affect this goal of equitable and sustainable global CAEP at the beginning of 2016, with entry into force development, an impact assessment has to be carried proposed for 31 December 2017. out. The policy’s two perspectives – a rights perspec- In the IMO, Sweden has been one of the countries tive and the perspective of poor people on developdriving forward efforts to develop a number of techni- ment – are to serve as a guide. In the framework of the cal and operational measures aimed at reducing green- PGD, coordination and collaboration take place, for house gas emissions. In 2011, several important deci- example, through a reference group on trade policy at sions were taken in this area. An Energy Efficiency the Ministry for Foreign Affairs. Regular meetings of Design Index (EEDI) – a standardised way of describ- this group, which includes representatives of business, ing the energy efficiency of ships – was made manda- the Swedish International Development Cooperation tory from 2013 for most (some 85% of) newly built Agency (Sida) and civil society organisations, have crevessels. The EEDI attained by a ship can be compared ated a basis for broad consultation on trade policy. A with a reference level based on an average for existing variety of capacity-building activities are also undervessels, and ships for which contracts are placed after taken, among them a conference co-hosted in 2009 by 2013 have to be at least as energy-efficient as this level. the Swedish Government and the EU Commission, A mandatory Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan looking at ways of reducing the climate impact of the (SEEMP) has also been introduced. This is to be used in food sector without impinging on the goal of free and ships’ management systems, to improve the energy ef- open trade. (Swedish Government 2010.) ficiency of both existing and new ships. In addition, a In connection with decision making on policies and voluntary Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator measures in Sweden and at EU level, impact assess- (EEOI) has been introduced as a tool and benchmark. ments are carried out, including environmental impact This can be used by existing ships. Sweden is also assessments. As far as possible, one element in such an taking a lead in discussions within the IMO on the assessment is an appraisal of the risk of adverse effects introduction of other mechanisms, market-based or in other countries. operational, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from To promote sustainable global development, new international shipping. The country gives priority, knowledge needs to be developed. Several interdiscipmoreover, to IMO efforts to limit nitrogen oxide and linary research initiatives are therefore under way sulphur emissions. Such measures also have benefits that are seeking to advance our understanding of the from a climate point of view. global impacts (social, economic and ecological) of large-scale introduction of measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The emphasis in Sweden on in-

4.2.10 Efforts to avoid adverse effects of policies creasing the use of bioenergy has made that area a parand measures introduced as part of the ticular priority in systems science research in the country’s climate strategy country.

Article 2 of the Kyoto Protocol requires every party Research results have, moreover, already influenced with quantified commitments under the Protocol to policy development, and will continue to do so. The implement policies and measures to bring about the special sustainability criteria developed for transport emission reductions it is committed to achieving. The biofuels under the EU’s Renewables Directive (Dirmeasures taken must be compatible with overarching ective 2009/28/EC) are a case in point. goals of sustainable development. Emphasis is placed Both beneficial and adverse effects need to be taken on measures capable of reducing all the greenhouse into account. Sweden is helping to implement a range gases regulated by the Protocol, and covering all sec- of measures that could have beneficial effects on the tors of society. Parties are to strive to implement poli- capacity of developing countries to adapt to climate cies and measures in such a way as to minimise adverse change and take action of their own to reduce their effects. These include the adverse effects of climate greenhouse gas emissions. Chapter 7 gives an account change, effects on international trade, and social, en- of such activities in the areas of technology transfer, vironmental and economic impacts on other parties, capacity building and support for adaptation measespecially developing countries. ures. Under Sweden’s policy for global development Finally, Sweden would emphasise that its broad- (PGD), all policy areas are to interact in a coherent ranging climate strategy, encompassing many different

4. Policies and measures 61

types of measures and covering most sectors (both oping states (SIDS) and in Africa. Fig. 4.9 shows a inside and outside the country) and all the greenhouse breakdown, by host country, of the contracted volume gases regulated by the Kyoto Protocol, has a design of carbon credits – certified emission reductions which fundamentally seeks to minimise the risk of (CERs) or emission reduction units (ERUs) – from inadverse effects. dividual projects. As can be seen from Fig. 4.9, 9% of individual projects are being undertaken in least developed coun-

4.3 Work on project-based flexible tries and 3% in small island developing states. This can mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol be compared with the CDM market as a whole, in

which only 1.1% of projects are based in LDCs and just Sweden has an active programme to implement the 0.5% in SIDS. The contracted quantity of carbon credits project-based mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, the from Africa makes up 30% of the total volume of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint contracted credits from individual projects. This per- Implementation (JI). The role of the Swedish CDM centage can be compared with the CDM market as a and JI programme has been to help develop the CDM, whole, where only about 4% of total credits come from JI and other similar market-based mechanisms as Africa. effective climate policy instruments, to contribute to cost- effective greenhouse gas reductions, and to pro- Sweden participating in seven multinational funds mote sustainable development in host countries. The Participation in multilateral CDM and JI funds offers programme has involved participation in both individ- an opportunity to be involved in projects across sevual projects and multilateral CDM and JI funds. The eral regions and project categories. Five of the seven individual projects are chiefly in the areas of renewa- CDM and JI funds Sweden is participating in (the Proble energy and energy efficiency. Funds have been totype Carbon Fund, Asia Pacific Carbon Fund, Future chosen based on the project types they target, their Carbon Fund, Multilateral Carbon Credit Fund and contribution to a geographical distribution of pro- Testing Ground Facility) are described in detail in jects, and Sweden’s scope to influence their activities. Sweden’s Fifth National Communication on Climate Up to and including the 2013 budget year, the Riksdag Change. Since 2009, Sweden has joined another two 4 has approved appropri ations for international cli- funds: the Umbrella Carbon Facility Tranche 2 (UCF mate initiatives under the CDM and JI totalling, on an T2) and the Carbon Partnership Facility (CPF). accumulated basis, some SEK 2.5bn for the period up UCF T2 is a World Bank-administered CDM fund to 2022. Sweden has currently signed contracts for 67 that will be acquiring CERs from the period after individual CDM projects and 2 JI projects. All the 2012. It was opened for contributions in June 2010 and CDM projects are being carried out in developing was fully subscribed by February 2011, when a capitalcountries, and priority is being given to projects in isation of € 105m was achieved, of which Sweden has least developed countries (LDCs), small island devel- contributed € 10m. The fund has targeted projects in the areas of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and Zambia 3% Brazil 3% Estonia methane recovery and destruction. Four of its projects Vietnam 1% are to be implemented as programmatic CDM, a rela- 7% tively new project form under this mechanism. This Uruguay 6% involves larger-scale programmes made up of several Uganda small CDM projects across different geographical 4% India 27% regions. Thailand The CPF is an innovative CDM fund for post-2012 6% projects. Sweden and Norway jointly entered the facil- € Tanzania 5% ity in 2010, each contributing 20m to its total capital Sri Lanka 1% of € 72m. The focus here is on large-scale action pro- Rwanda Indonesia 2% grammes and investments, involving programmatic 5% and sector-based approaches, which can achieve major Romania China emission reductions in an efficient way. The facility 2% 8% Peru 4% Laos Nigeria Malaysia 2% may come to benefit from other new climate collab or- 5% Mauritius ations, such as the Partnership for Market Readiness 8% 1% Figure 4.9 Individual projects – breakdown of carbon (PMR), a World Bank initiative with a focus on capaccredits by country. ity building. Practical experience from CPF activities

4 Approved appropriations up to and including the authorisation framework for the period 2014–22.

62 4. Policies and measures

will subsequently be able to feed back into the inter- vantage of involving several countries, allowing emisnational climate negotiations and the development of sion reductions to be secured at a lower overall cost new flexible mechanisms. than if the same reductions had been achieved by na- Projects and funds under contract up to and includ- tional measures alone. ing 2012 are expected, under the agreements signed, It can be argued that there are two main reasons for to generate emission reductions of around 19 Mt CO 2 supplementing general instruments with more targeteq. The Riksdag’s aim is to achieve reductions of at ed ones (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency least 40 Mt CO 2 eq through international climate ini- 2012b). The first has to do with the existence of other tiatives under the CDM and JI programme, as a contri- market failures than the actual emission of greenhouse bution to meeting Sweden’s national target for 2020. gases. These include, for example, knowledge leakage Total funding appropriated by the Riksdag, including from R&D investments, other obstacles to new techthe authorisation framework for the period up to and nology and infrastructure, and various information including 2013, is expected to be sufficient to acquire failures. credits corresponding to around 27–29 Mt CO 2 eq. The second reason is that there are sometimes factors restricting the implementation of an effective policy. This may mean that, instead of introducing a single, well-targeted instrument, the second-best solu-

4.4 Cost-effectiveness of policies and tion may be to introduce several blunter ones. This measures in Sweden’s climate may be because the well-targeted instrument is not

judged politically feasible, or involves very high trans-

strategy

action costs.

4.4.1 Cost-effectiveness of policy instruments There is thus a risk that, because of conflicts with

other goals, general systems cannot be designed in a The concept of cost-effectiveness refers in this con- theoretically desirable way. Targeted instruments can text to achieving a given objective at the lowest pos- then help to increase awareness of the options for sible cost. To be able to assess the cost-effectiveness of action available. This means that, in certain cases, it different policies and measures, there thus needs to be may be cost-effective to combine general and targeted an objective and an estimate of the costs of the instru- instruments. To limit atmospheric greenhouse gas ments concerned. In the case of a national target for levels in a cost-effective way, there is also a need for greenhouse gas emissions, the relevant costs are those international cooperation, both short- and long-term. to the national economy, i.e. the change in households’ Measures to cut emissions and disseminate technology scope for consumption (in a wide sense) to which the can then be undertaken to the greatest possible extent instruments give rise. To arrive at an overall assess- where the cost is lower. Examples of international coment, effects on future generations should also be taken operation of this kind are the flexible mechanisms of into account. the Kyoto Protocol and the EU ETS. A given instrument may be intended to achieve a Sweden’s climate strategy includes both emissions number of objectives, and it may therefore be difficult trading and a carbon dioxide tax, but these do not to correctly allocate the costs arising from it. An in- cover every sector of society, nor are they uniformly strument may for example – as is commonly the case designed. In the case of the energy tax system, rates of in Sweden’s climate strategy – be designed to be of sig- tax have been differentiated between sectors, to renificance for several environmental objectives at once, flect the exposure of some industries to international but also to help meet broader energy, waste and em- competition and to allow for tax increases for other ployment policy goals. sectors of society. Such differentiation involves the By and large, general, cross-cutting policy instru- risk of a less cost-effective system, in that different ments, such as a carbon dioxide tax or emissions trad- parties face differing costs for their emissions. In a ing, which impose the same marginal costs for emis- world where not all countries are subject to emission sions on companies and households, can be said to have restrictions, tax differentials may nevertheless, taking a good potential to be highly cost-effective, since they into account the effects on the overall economy, be offer flexibility in the choice of measures, resulting in justified from a cost-effectiveness point of view. To low-cost measures being taken. Efficient use can be achieve long-term climate objectives, pressure for made of the information which private stakeholders change needs to be created, leading to structural have regarding their own specific opportunities to cut change and the development of new technology. Such emissions. An emissions trading system also has the ad- a development is necessary to secure sustainable long-

4. Policies and measures 63

term growth. Sweden has chosen to balance these two sion reduction it resulted in over the period. The goals by pursuing a national climate policy including, height of the bar representing a given measure shows on the one hand, instruments that result in emission its estimated cost on the y-axis, while the width of the reduction measures being implemented at home and, bar shows, on the x-axis, the estimated annual emison the other, cooperation in the framework of Kyoto sion reduction it achieved. The costs of measures have Protocol flexible mechanisms and the EU ETS. been calculated without policy instruments such as taxes and grants and using a cost of capital of 4%, which reflects a macroeconomic perspective, rather

4.4.2 Costs of measures implemented as a

than that of an investor. The costs shown in the dia-

consequence of Swedish climate policy

gram thus do not tally with the actual costs to the

instruments

households or companies implementing the measures. Several of the instruments that help to reduce green- The results depend to a large extent on what fuel house gas emissions are also designed to achieve other costs and hence what price differences between fuels policy objectives. When, in addition, they interact in a are assumed over the period. The fuel costs assumed in given sector or area of use, distinguishing their indi- the calculations are close to the average for 1990– vidual effects is a complex task. Uncertainty also arises 2010. Over the period, fuel price differences (relative when we attempt to separate the effects of an instru- prices) varied most between biofuels and oil, while ment from other external changes that influence de- they were fairly stable between coal and biofuels velopments, such as energy prices and spontaneous (apart from one year). As a result, the costs of meastechnological advances, and to put prices on the trans- ures involving a switch from coal varied relatively little action costs to stakeholders and the overall impact of over the period, while those of measures to replace oil instruments on the national economy. fell sharply as oil prices rose, even to negative values A rough indication of the cost-effectiveness of the (making the measures profitable for society), as biopolicy instruments concerned and the overall climate fuel prices did not rise to the same extent. For measures strategy can nevertheless be obtained by estimating relating to electricity production, the alternative the effects and costs of the technical measures imple- investment has been assumed to be coal-fired condensmented as a consequence of the instruments or pack- ing plant in Sweden (see section 4.2.3). If, instead, coalages of instruments introduced. fired CHP was assumed as the alternative, the effect of Fig. 4.10 shows estimates of the costs of a selection the measures would be reduced by 20% and the costs of conversion and new investment measures in the per kg CO 2 thus increased. electricity and heat supply sector, undertaken in The diagram shows estimated historical costs of Sweden over the period 1990–2010. For each measure, measures and does not represent an assessment of an assessment has been made of the total annual emis- future costs. Sources of error and limitations exist in

Costs to society of some typical measures 1.5

1

0.5

2 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101 105 109 113 117 121 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 153 157 161 165 169 173 177 181 185 SEK/kg CO -0.5

-1 Waste-fired CHP Figure 4.10 Estimated costs New bio-CHP, 80 MW Onshore wind, 5 MW New natural gas CHP New bio-CHP, 10 MW CHP, coal to wood chip -1.5 Electric boiler to biomass heat-only boiler to society and annual emission

reductions for typical measures in the area of electricity and

-2 Oil to biofuel, single-family houses Heat-only boiler, coal to wood chip Oil to heat pump, single-family houses lectricity to heat pump, comm. premises heat supply, implemented in E Oil to district heating, single-family houses Oil to district heating, commercial premises Electricity to heat pump, single-family houses Sweden 1990–2010 (weather Oil to district heating, multi-dwelling buildings Ktonnes CO 2 corrected).

64 4. Policies and measures

the method and the underlying data. The effects of 4.4.3 Policy instrument changes that have fuel switching may be overestimated, as no account is improved cost-effectiveness

taken of the fact that energy efficiency measures were As proposed in Government Bill 2009/10:41 (Ministry also undertaken, reducing energy use overall. On the of Finance 2009), the Riksdag has decided to reduce, in other hand, there are additional conversion measures two stages, the relief on the standard rate of carbon which could not be estimated, owing to limitations in dioxide tax given to industry outside the EU ETS and the statistics. In the calculations, an average energy to agriculture, forestry and pisciculture. The Governprice has been assumed for the whole period, but ment made the assessment in 2009 that the carbon dimeasures may very well not have been implemented oxide tax could be raised for these sectors, without it until electricity and fossil fuel prices were higher than resulting to any significant degree in carbon dioxide the average, or until the price ratio between fossil and and other greenhouse gas emissions moving in such a renewable fuels was at its most favourable. A large way that global emissions would not be reduced. This proportion of switching from oil in the residential assessment was based on the fact that energy generally sector, for example, was carried out in the 2000s, when accounts for a small share of total costs for non-EU oil prices were high. It should be noted that, in most ETS enterprises, with the principal exception of cases, the costs of measures are well below the level of greenhouse horticulture. The change introduced will carbon dioxide tax that applied in Sweden in the improve the cost-effectiveness of climate policy, in 2000s. The tax was thus at such a level that it was able that the same price will apply across a wider range of to offset by a good margin: emissions. The National Institute of Economic Research (2012) notes in its analysis that, in the long • the larger return on investments required by term, the change will make for a more cost-effective households and companies (compared with tax system. central government) • transaction costs

• other market barriers. 4.5 Policies and measures no longer in place

The cost of waste-fired CHP is particularly low in the Compared with the account given in Sweden’s Fifth estimates, owing to the fact that waste incineration National Communication, four policy instruments are plants generate revenue, in that they can levy a special no longer in place (see Table 4.4). treatment charge. Which policy instruments or combinations of in- Table 4.4 Policy instruments withdrawn from use since the struments were of significance in bringing about the

Fifth National Communication

measures undertaken is difficult to determine precise-

Instrument Primarily replaced by

ly, beyond the information provided in earlier sections Delegation for Sustainable Cities – about the instruments targeted at specific sectors. Support for solar heating Property renovation (ROT) deduction Measures involving the building of new renewable PFE Act – electricity-generating capacity (wind power, bio-CHP), Green vehicle rebate Exemption from annual for example, were probably promoted by the electric- vehicle tax for new green vehicles ity certificates system, as certificate prices increased over the period, although the EU ETS may also have contributed by raising the price of electricity somewhat. Special grants were provided for offshore wind power, but we have no cost estimates for this type of measure. The very low cost of new waste CHP can probably be attributed to the bans on landfill and the high costs of alternative treatments of waste, resulting in waste incinerators being able to charge for receiving combustible waste. The energy and carbon dioxide taxes are judged to have been significant in reducing fossil fuel use in the residential sector, offering powerful incentives to switch to non-fossil fuels.

4. Policies and measures 65

4.6 Summary of policies and measures

Green- Estimate of mitigation impact in house Mt CO 2 eq per year compared with gas(es) 1990 instruments Name of policy/ Primary primarily Type of Status of Implementing measure objective affected instrument instrument agency 2010 2015 2020 2030

Cross-sectoral instruments

Delegation for Transition All Economic Concluded Swedish National NE NE NE NE Sustainable Cities to ecological (2009– Board of Housing, sustainability 12) Building and at local level Planning Environmental Code Ecologically All Legislation Ongoing Swedish NE NE NE NE sustainable (1999–) Environmental development Protection Agency New Planning and Promote All Legislation Ongoing Swedish National NE NE NE NE Building Act sustainable (2011–) Board of Housing, development Building and of society Planning Climate and Greater awareness All Information Ongoing Swedish Energy NE NE NE NE energy advice of possible (1998–) Agency measures Research and Development of All Economic Ongoing Swedish Energy NE NE NE NE development technology with very (1990–) Agency (mainly) low climate impact

Production of electricity and district heating

Energy tax Fiscal, and to Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Tax improve efficiency dioxide (1957–) Agency of energy use Carbon dioxide tax Reduce use of Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Tax fossil fuels dioxide (1991–) Agency Electricity Increase supply Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish certificates of electricity from dioxide (2003–) Energy Agency system renewable energy and Svenska 14 16 16 15 sources Kraftnät (Swedish National Grid) EU Emissions Reduce use of Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Trading System fossil fuels in dioxide (2005–) Environmental (EU ETS) trading sector Protection Agency and Swedish Energy Agency Special support Reduce use of Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Energy NE NE NE NE for wind power fossil fuels dioxide (2007–) Agency Guarantees Reduce use of Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish NE NE NE NE of Origin of fossil fuels dioxide (2010–) Energy Agency Electricity Act and Svenska Kraftnät Central government Reduce use of Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Energy NE NE NE NE support for installa- fossil fuels dioxide (2009–) Agency tion of solar cells

66 4. Policies and measures

Green- Estimate of mitigation impact in house Mt CO 2 eq per year compared with gas(es) 1990 instruments Name of policy/ Primary primarily Type of Status of Implementing measure objective affected instrument instrument agency 2010 2015 2020 2030 Residential and commercial/institutional sector

Energy tax Fiscal, and to Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Tax improve efficiency dioxide (1957–) Agency of energy use Carbon dioxide tax Reduce use of Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Tax fossil fuels dioxide (1991–) Agency Building regulations More efficient Carbon Legislation Ongoing Swedish National – energy efficiency energy use dioxide Board of Housing, standards Building and 1.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 Planning Energy performance More efficient Carbon Legislation Ongoing Swedish National certificates energy use dioxide and infor- (2009–) Board of Housing, mation Building and Planning Ecodesign Act More efficient Carbon Legislation Ongoing Swedish Energy energy use dioxide (2010–) Agency Mandatory energy More efficient Carbon Information Ongoing Swedish Energy labelling energy use dioxide (1995–) Agency Technology More efficient Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Energy NE NE NE NE procurement energy use and dioxide Agency increased use of renewable energy Support for solar Increased use of Carbon Economic Concluded Swedish National NE NE NE NE heating renewable energy dioxide (2009–11) Board of Housing, Building and Planning

Industrial emissions from fuel combustion and processes (incl. emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases)

Energy tax Fiscal, and to Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Tax improve efficiency of dioxide (1957–) Agency energy use Carbon dioxide tax Reduce use of fossil Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Tax fuels dioxide (1991–) Agency Electricity Increase supply Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish certificates system of electricity from dioxide (2003–) Energy Agency –0.8 0 0.2 0.4 renewable energy and Svenska sources Kraftnät EU Emissions Reduce use of fossil Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Trading System fuels in trading dioxide (2005–) Environmental (EU ETS) sector Protection Agency and Swedish Energy Agency Reduced carbon Reduce use of fossil Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Tax – 0.4 0.4 – dioxide tax relief for fuels dioxide (2011–) Agency industry outside EU ETS, and energy tax on fossil fuels for heating in industry Programme for Reduce use of Carbon Voluntary/ Concluded Swedish Energy NE NE NE NE Energy Efficiency electricity dioxide negotiated (2005– Agency in Energy-Intensive agreement 12) Industry (PFE) Environmental Code Ecologically All Legislation Ongoing Swedish NE NE NE NE sustainable (1999–) Environmental development Protection Agency F-gas Regulation HFCs Legislation Ongoing 0.2 0.5 0.7 NE and Mobile Air Conditioning Directive

4. Policies and measures 67

Green- Estimate of mitigation impact in house Mt CO 2 eq per year compared with gas(es) 1990 instruments Name of policy/ Primary primarily Type of Status of Implementing measure objective affected instrument instrument agency 2010 2015 2020 2030 Transport

Emission standards Reduce carbon di- Carbon Legislation Ongoing Swedish Transport NE NE NE NE for new vehicles oxide emissions from dioxide (2015 and Agency light-duty vehicles 2017) Support for research Develop technol- Carbon Economic Ongoing VINNOVA and NE NE NE NE and demonstration ogy for sustainable dioxide Swedish Energy growth and reduced Agency fossil fuel depend- (mainly) ence Vehicle fuel taxes Internalise external Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Tax 2 2 2 NE (energy and carbon effects of road trans- dioxide Agency dioxide taxes) port, incl. greenhouse gas emissions Increased energy tax Internalise external Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Tax NE NE NE NE on diesel effects of road trans- dioxide (2011 and Agency port, incl. green- 2013) house gas emissions Targeted instruments Increase use of Carbon Economic Ongoing Swedish Tax 1.8 2.6 3 NE to promote introduc- renewable transport dioxide Agency (mainly) tion of renewable fuels transport fuels

Waste

Rules on municipal Increase recycling Methane Legislation Ongoing Swedish 1.4 1.7 1.9 NE waste planning and and reduce total and fiscal Environmental on producer respon- quantities of waste instruments Protection sibility for certain Agency products, landfill tax (2000), bans on landfill of separated combustible waste (2002) and of organic waste (2005)

Agriculture

Targeted agri-environ- Reduced Nitrous Economic Ongoing Swedish Board of 0.5 NE NE NE ment payments under Climate Impact, oxide and (2007–13) Agriculture Rural Development A Varied methane Programme Agricultural Landscape and Zero Eutrophication

Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)

Provisions of Forestry Achieve environ- Carbon Legislation Ongoing Swedish Forest NE NE NE NE Act on forest manage- mental and produc- dioxide Agency ment etc. tion objectives for forests Provisions of Environ- Biodiversity Carbon Legislation Ongoing County administra- NE NE NE NE mental Code on land dioxide and tive boards drainage methane Provisions on nature Biodiversity Carbon Legislation Ongoing Swedish Environ- NE NE NE NE reserves and habitat dioxide mental Protection protection areas in Agency and county Environmental Code, administrative and nature conserva- boards tion agreements

68 4. Policies and measures

4.7 References for Chapter 4

Informant 2, Energy Efficiency Department, Swedish Energy Agency, estimate of potential savings Delegation for Sustainable Cities (2012). from ecodesign. Email 21 March 2013. Slutredovisning av Delegationen för hållbara städers verksamhet, Report M 2011:01 to the Government. Informant 3, Swedish Energy Agency, 2013.

Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament Informant 4, Swedish Energy Agency, Energy and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the promotion Efficiency Department, regarding the proportion of the use of energy from renewable sources and of companies and energy use exiting the PFE system amending and subsequently repealing Directives in June 2014. Telephone call, 8 March 2013. 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC. Johansson, Håkan (2013). Minskade utsläpp av Environmental Code (SFS 1998:808). växthusgaser från vägtrafiken. Trafikverket PM, www.trafikverket.se/PageFiles/25435/pm_vagtrafikens Government Offices of Sweden (2010). utslapp_130902_ny.pdf, accessed 2013. The Swedish National Action Plan for the promotion of the use of renewable energy in accordance with Landfill Ordinance (SFS 2001:512). Directive 2009/28/EC and the Commission Decision of 30.06.2009. Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications (2012a). Govt. Bill 2012/13:25: Government Offices of Sweden (2011). Sweden’s Investeringar för ett starkt och hållbart transportsystem. Second National Energy Efficiency Action Plan. Näringsdepartementet.

Government Offices of Sweden (2013). Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications Report for Sweden on assessment of projected progress. (2012b). Regeringsbeslut 2012-12-20, N2012/6395/TE In accordance with article 3.2 under Council Decision och delvis N2012/6434/TE: Uppdrag till Trafikverket No 280/2004/EC on a Mechanism for Monitoring att ta fram ett förslag till nationell trafikslagsöver- Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions and for gripande plan för utveckling av transportsystement Implementing the Kyoto Protocol. för perioden 2014-2025. (Rskr 2012/13:119.)

Govt. Bill 2008/09:162: En sammanhållen klimat- och Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications energipolitik – Klimat . Ministry of the Environment. (2013). Industrin ska kunna fortsätta spara energi, www.regeringen.se/sb/d/15709/a/201349, accessed Govt. Bill 2008/09:163: En sammanhållen klimat- 3 Sept. 2013. och energipolitik – Energi. Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications. Ministry of the Environment (2009). Govt. Bill 2009/10:170: En enklare plan- och bygglag. Govt. Bill 2009/10:41: Vissa punktskattefrågor Miljödepartementet. med anledning av budgetpropositionen för 2010. Ministry of Finance. Ministry of Finance (2011). Govt. Bill 2011/12:1: Budgetpropositionen för 2012, utgiftsområde 23, p. 59. Govt. Bill 2011/12:118: Planeringssystem för trans- Finansdepartementet. portinfrastruktur. Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications. National Institute of Economic Research (2012). Samhällsekonomiska effekter av energi- och koldioxid- Govt. Bill 2012/13:21: Forskning och innovation för ett skatteförändringar som beslutades av riksdagen 2009. långsiktigt hållbart energisystem. Fördjupnings-PM nr 10 2012.

Informant 1, Technology Department, Swedish Energy NFS 2006:6. Naturvårdsverkets föreskrifter och Agency, Eskilstuna. Email 13 March 2013 summarising allmänna råd om innehållet i en kommunal avfallsplan support scheme for solar cells. och länsstyrelsens sammanställning.

4. Policies and measures 69

Planning and Building Act (SFS 2010:900). Swedish Energy Agency (2012c). The electricity certificate system 2012. Eskilstuna: Swedish Energy Profu (2011). Utvecklad modellutvärdering av Agency. ET2012:31. CO 2 -utsläppen från bostäder och service. Mölndal: Profu i Göteborg AB. Swedish Energy Agency (2012e). Energy in Sweden 2012. Eskilstuna: Swedish Energy Agency. ET2012:75. Profu (2013). Beräkningar med MARKAL-NORDIC inför Sveriges klimatrapportering (NC6). Swedish Energy Agency (2012f). Färdplan 2050 – Mölndal: Profu i Göteborg AB. bostäder och lokaler. Energimyndighetens underlag till Naturvårdsverkets uppdrag för en färdplan för ett Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 of the European Sverige utan nettoutsläpp av växthusgaser år 2050. Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2013 on a Eskilstuna: Energimyndigheten. ER2012:28. mechanism for monitoring and reporting greenhouse ISSN 1403-1892. gas emissions and for reporting other information at national and Union level relevant to climate change Swedish Energy Agency (2012g). and repealing Decision No 280/2004/EC. Sustainable biofuels 2011. Fact sheet. ET 2012:27.

SOU 2008:110: Ett energieffektivare Sverige. Slut- Swedish Energy Agency (2013a). betänkande av Energieffektiviseringsutredningen Effekter av energi- och klimatrådgivningen 2011 . (final report of Swedish Energy Efficiency Inquiry, Report ER 2013:10. ISSN 1403-1892. with a summary in English). ISBN 978-91-38-23103-6. Swedish Energy Agency (2013b). SPBI (2013). Svenska Petroleum och Biodrivmedel Uppdaterad anläggningslista efter utfasning, Institutet, Statistics, www.spbi.se/, accessed 2013. www.energimyndigheten.se/sv/Press/Nyheter/ Uppdaterad-anlaggningslista-efter-utfasning/, Swedish Association of Local Authorities and accessed 3 Sept. 2013. Regions (2012). Nyckeltal energi och klimat 2012. ISBN 978-91-7164-895-2. Swedish Energy Agency (2013c). Sammanställning vindpilotprojekt, Swedish Energy Agency (2003). Energy in Sweden www.energimyndigheten.se/sv/Om-oss/ 2003. ET 22:2003. Var-verksamhet/Framjande-av-vindkraft/ Forskningsprogram/Vindpilotprojekt/ Swedish Energy Agency (2010a). Företagsstrategier för Sammanstallning-vindpilotprojekt/, utsläppshandel och klimatåtaganden – En enkätstudie accessed 3 March 2013. av företagens agerande och attityder gentemot Europeiska unionens system för handel med utsläppsrätter. Swedish Energy Agency (2013d), Eskilstuna: Energimyndigheten. Report ER 2010:24. Revidering av riksintresse för vindbruk, www.energimyndigheten.se/Om-oss/Var-verksamhet/ Swedish Energy Agency (2010b). Transportsektorns Framjande-av-vindkraft/Riksintresse-vindbruk-/, energianvändning 2009, ES 2010:04. accessed 3 Sept. 2013.

Swedish Energy Agency (2012a), Statusrapport avseende Swedish Energy Agency (2013e), länsstyrelsernas arbete och utveckling av de regionala Planeringsram för år 2020, energi- och klimatstrategierna. Eskilstuna: Statens www.energimyndigheten.se/sv/Om-oss/Var-verksamhet/ energimyndighet. ER2012:19. ISSN 1403-1892. Framjande-av-vindkraft/Mal-och-forutsattningar-/ Nytt-planeringsmal-for-2020/, Swedish Energy Agency (2012b), Energy in Sweden accessed 3 Sept. 2013. – Facts and figures 2012, statistical appendix to Energy in Sweden 2012. Eskilstuna: Swedish Energy Agency. ET2012:75.

70 4. Policies and measures

Swedish Energy Agency (2013f). Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (2012a). Vindkraftsstatistik 2012 . Eskilstuna: Underlag till en färdplan för ett Sverige utan klimatut- Energimyndigheten. ES2013:01. ISSN 1654-7543. släpp 2050. Stockholm: Naturvårdsverket. Report 6537. ISBN 978-91-620-6537-9. Swedish Energy Agency (2013g). Stöd till solceller, www.energimyndigheten.se/Hushall/ Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (2012b). Aktuella-bidrag-och-stod-du-kan-soka/ Ett mål flera medel. Styrmedelskombinationer i klimat- Stod-till-solceller/, accessed 3 Sept. 2013. politiken. Report 6491, ISBN 978-91-620-6491-4.

Swedish Energy Agency (2013h). Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (2013a). Ursprungsgarantier, www.energimyndigheten.se/ Utsläpp av växthusgaser år 2011, Foretag/ursprungsgarantier/, accessed 3 Sept. 2013. www.naturvardsverket.se, accessed 2013.

Swedish Energy Agency (2013i). Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (2013b). Ekodesign och energimärkning, Underlag till Sveriges klimatrapportering till www.energimyndigheten.se/ekodesign, UNFCCC 2013. accessed 3 Sept. 2013. Swedish Forest Agency (2013a). Swedish Energy Agency (2013j). Skogsbruk i ett förändrat klimat, www.skogsstyrelsen. Teknikupphandling, www.energimyndigheten.se/sv/ se/Myndigheten/Projekt/Landsbygdsprogrammet/ Foretag/Teknikupphandling1/, accessed 3 Sept. 2013. Skogsbruk-i-ett-forandrat-klimat/, accessed 5 Sept. 2013.

Swedish Energy Agency (2013k). Implementering Swedish Forest Agency (2013b). av artikel 7 i energieffektiviseringsdirektivet – Skogsägaren och klimatet, Energimyndighetens beräkningar och förslag . www.skogsstyrelsen.se/Myndigheten/Projekt/ ER2013:04. Eskilstuna. Landsbygdsprogrammet/Kunskap-for-dig-och-din-skog/, accessed 5 Sept. 2013. Swedish Energy Agency (2013l). PFE/Resultat och utvärdering, Swedish Forest Agency (2013c). www.energimyndigheten.se/sv/Foretag/ Bioenergi från skogen, www.skogsstyrelsen.se/ Energieffektivisering-i-foretag/PFE/ Myndigheten/Projekt/Landsbygdsprogrammet/ Resultat-och-utvardering/, accessed 3 Sept. 2013. Bioenergi-fran-skogen/, accessed 5 Sept. 2013.

Swedish Energy Agency (2013m). Transportsektorns Swedish Forest Agency (2013d). energianvändning 2012, ES 2013:02. Skog och klimat, www.skogsstyrelsen.se/Myndigheten/ Skog-och-miljo/Skog-och-klimat1/, Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (2006). accessed 27 Nov. 2013. Sweden’s Initial Report under the Kyoto Protocol – Calculation of Assigned Amount. Report to UNFCCC, Swedish Government (2010). December 2006. Att möta globala utmaningar – skrivelse om samstämmighet för utveckling, Communication Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (2009). 2009/10:129 to the Riksdag, 18 March 2010. Allmänheten och klimatförändringen 2009 – Allmänhetens kunskap om och attityd till klimatförändringen, Swedish National Audit Office (2012). med fokus på egna åtgärder, konsumtionsbeteenden och Svensk klimatforskning – vad kostar den och vad företagens ansvar. Stockholm: Naturvårdsverket. har den gett? (English summary: Swedish Climate Report 6311. ISBN 978-91-620-6311-5. Research: What are the Swedish Costs and Effects?) Stockholm: Riksrevisionen. RIR 2012:2. Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (2010). ISBN 978 91 7086 275 5. Gör arbetet med klimatstrategier någon skillnad? En utvärdering av lokalt klimatstrategiarbete. Stockholm: Naturvårdsverket. ISBN 978-91-620-6358-0.

4. Policies and measures 71

Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Swedish Tax Agency (2013e). Planning (2009). Planer som styrmedel för att minska www.skatteverket.se/foretagorganisationer/skatter/ samhällets klimatpåverkan. Report, June 2009. punktskatter/allapunktskatter/energiskatter. ISBN 978-91-86559-03-8. 4.18e1b10334ebe8bc8000843.html, accessed April 2013. Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Planning (2011a). Boverket informerar – om nya och Swedish Transport Administration (2012a). ändrade författningar den 2 maj 2011. 2011:1. TRV 2012/38626: Förslag till nationell plan för trans- Date of publication 29 April 2011. portsystemet 2014–2025, remissversion 2013-06-14.

Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Swedish Transport Administration (2012b). Planning (2011b). Regelsamling för byggande, Trafikverkets miljörapport 2012. BBR 2012, ISBN 978-91-86827-40-3. Publication number 2013:061.

Swedish National Board of Housing, Swedish Transport Administration (2013a). Building and Planning (2012). Bilindex 2012 – Index över nya bilars klimatpåverkan. Utvärdering av solvärmebidraget och solvärmestödet. Publication number: 2013:053 Report 2012:9. ISBN PDF: 978-91-87131-21-9. Swedish Transport Administration (2013b). Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Trafikverket Bilindex – Index över nya bilars klimat- Planning (2013). Statistics on energy performance påverkan. Collation of annual ‘Index of climate impact certificates, Trend Energideklarationer, www.boverket. of new cars’ reports, by Gugge Haglund, Swedish se/Bygga--forvalta/Energideklaration/Statistik/, Transport Administration, 2013. accessed 1 April 2013. Terms of reference 2011:91. Tilläggsdirektiv till Swedish Tax Agency (2013a). Miljömålsberedningen (M 2010:04), Strategi för en Ändrade skatter på bränslen och el fr.o.m. 2013, långsiktigt hållbar markanvändning – med syfte att nå www.skatteverket.se/download/18.2b543913a42158a generationsmålet och miljökvalitetsmålen, Beslut vid cf800016263/1354780124382/Skattesatser+2013+RA. regeringssammanträde den 13 oktober 2011. pdf, accessed 3 Sept. 2013. Waste Tax Act (SFS 1999:673). Swedish Tax Agency (2013b). Ändrade bestämmelser för kraftvärmeanläggningar och vissa värmeleveranser, www.skatteverket.se/omoss/nyheter/2012/nyheter/ny askattereglerfranarsskiftet.5.2b543913a42158a cf800024610.html, accessed 3 Sept. 2013.

Swedish Tax Agency (2013c). Förändringar avseende beskattning av bränsle och elektrisk kraft som träder i kraft den 1 januari 2011, www.skatteverket.se/download/18.6fdde64a12cc4e ee23080006350/1292846720922/Information_samma nst%C3%A4llning_%C3%A4ndringar_2011.pdf, accessed 3 Sept. 2013.

Swedish Tax Agency (2013d). Nedsatt koldioxidskatt för bränslen som förbrukas i anläggning som omfattas av handeln med utsläppsrätter, www.skatteverket.se/foretagorganisationer/skatter/ punktskatter/energiskatter/utslappsratter.4.121b82f0 11a74172e5880006846.html, accessed 3 Sept. 2013.

72 4. Policies and measures

4. Policies and measures 73

5 Projections and the total effect of policies and measures

Million tonnes of CO equivalent The projection of emissions and removals of green- 2 house gases described in this chapter has been devel- 100 oped for the present National Communication and for 80 Sweden’s reporting to the EU (Ministry of the Envir- 60 onment 2013) in accordance with the requirements of the EU decision on monitoring of greenhouse gases. 1 40 The projection’s reference scenario is based on the po- 20 licies and measures currently adopted by the EU and the Riksdag (the Swedish Parliament) 2 and on an as- 0 sessment of future economic trends. It builds on a series -20 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020 of assumptions, all of which are subject to uncertainty, -40 and can primarily be seen as an impact assessment of the assumptions made. The results should be inter- -60 preted with this in mind. Total emissions LULUCF Kyoto target The method used to calculate the projection is primarily designed with a medium- or long-term projec- Figure 5.1 Historic and projected total greenhouse gas tion in mind, which means that no account is taken of emissions and Sweden’s Kyoto target. shorter-term variations. For calculation assumptions and the methodology employed, see Annex 5. In addition to (Mt CO 2 eq), excluding emissions and removals from the ‘with measures’ projection, two sensitivity alterna- the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) tives have been calculated, as well as a ‘with additional sector. The results of the projection (see Fig. 5.1 and measures’ projection that includes planned policies and Table 5.1) point to a gradual decline in total emissions measures as well as those already adopted. of greenhouse gases (excl. LULUCF) over the projection period. By 2020, aggregate emissions are projected to be 19% lower than in 1990, and by 2030 there is

5.1 Projection of total emissions expected to be a further reduction, to 21% below 1990

Total greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden in 2011 levels. were 61.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent The LULUCF sector represented a net sink for Sweden

Table 5.1 Historic and projected emissions and removals of greenhouse gases, by sector (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

1 Decision No 280/2004/EC concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse 2 Up to the end of 2011. gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol (this decision was repealed and replaced in 2013 by EU Regulation No 525/2013).

74 5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures

over the period 1990–2011 and is projected to continue expected to decrease, while those from the energy into do so up to 2030. dustries remain unchanged. Emissions from industrial combustion are projected to rise somewhat up to 2020, before showing a modest fall. Emissions in the remaining

5.2 Projections by gas sectors decrease slightly over the period of the projec-

In 2011, carbon dioxide made up around 80% of total tion (see Fig. 5.2). emissions, with nitrous oxide accounting for 11%, me-

thane for 8% and fluorinated greenhouse gases for just 5.3.1 Energy industries

under 2%. Between 2011 and 2030, emissions of all gases Emissions from the energy industries, i.e. production of are projected to decrease. The mix of greenhouse gases electricity and district heating, refineries and the manuemitted is expected to change over the projection facture of solid fuels, are projected to show differing period, with a slight increase in carbon dioxide’s share trends in each of the subsectors, but to remain at the of the total. Historic and projected emissions, broken same level overall throughout the projection period. down by gas, are shown in Table 5.2. This is due to a slight decrease in emissions from electricity generation and district heating, combined with a significant rise in refinery emissions. Emissions from the

5.3 Projections by sector manufacture of solid fuels remain at roughly the same

The emissions projection is based on many different as- level over the projection horizon. The biggest increase is sumptions, and trends in greenhouse gas emissions dif- expected in emissions of methane (see Table 5.3). fer between sectors. Drivers of emission trends in some sectors include economic growth, prices, population Production of electricity and district heating growth and policy instruments. Over the period 2011– Greenhouse gas emissions from the generation of elec- 30, emissions from domestic transport, for example, are tricity and district heating are projected to fall slightly from 2011 to 2030 (see Table 5.4). This is despite an in- 25 Domestic transport crease early in the projection period in the production Energy industries 20 of electricity in particular, but also of district heat. The Industrial combustion reduction in emissions, despite higher production, is

equivalent

2 15 Agriculture due to a partial change in the fuel mix. Increased use of Industrial processes natural gas, fuels from the iron and steel industry and, to 10 Other sectors* some extent, waste will add to emissions, but this will be offset by greater use of biofuels and wind power and a 5 Fugitive emissions Million tonnes of CO decline in the use of oil, coal and peat. Biofuel use is ex- Waste 0 pected to rise above all at combined heat and power Military plants, a trend favoured by both the electricity certifi- 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2020 2030 Solvents and other products use cates scheme and the EU Emissions Trading System. Between 2012 and 2020, production of electricity is Figure 5.2 Historic and projected greenhouse gas emissions assumed to grow more than consumption, resulting in a

from different sectors.

* i.e. fuel combustion in the commercial/institutional, residential and agriculture/ projected net export of around 23 TWh by 2020. forestry/fisheries sectors. Table 5.2 Historic and projected total greenhouse gas emissions, excl. LULUCF, by gas (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

(excl. LULUCF)

Table 5.3 Historic and projected greenhouse gas emissions from the energy industries (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures 75

Refineries sions from industry. Emissions from industrial combus- Refinery emissions are expected to rise appreciably tion of fossil fuels account for the remainder. throughout the projection period (see Table 5.5). This is Combustion emissions from industry vary from year due partly to assumed growth in production, and partly to year, chiefly depending on production volumes and to increased emissions from refining of products meet- fluctuations in the economy. A small number of energying higher quality standards. Emissions from refineries intensive industries are responsible for a large share of are also reported in the fugitive emissions sector. emissions in this sector. Iron and steel, pulp and paper and chemicals together account for almost half the Manufacture of solid fuels sector’s emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions from the manufacture of solid Total energy use in industry is expected to rise befuels are projected to remain at the same level as in the tween 2011 and 2030, mainly as a result of assumed last few years, around 0.3 Mt CO 2 eq, up to 2030. growth in production. Industrial combustion emissions, on the other hand, are projected to fall (see Table 5.6).

5.3.2 Industrial emissions This assessment is based above all on an expected reduc-

To cover industrial emissions, account needs to be taken tion in emissions from the pulp and paper industry, of both process emissions and emissions from fuel com- driven by a shift from fossil fuels to greater use of biobustion in industry, which according to UNFCCC guide- fuels. Emissions from the chemicals, non-ferrous metals, lines are to be reported under separate CRF (Common engineering, mineral products and food industries are Reporting Format) categories. Greenhouse gas emissions also expected to show a slight decline. Mining and iron from industrial processes originate from the materials and steel industry emissions, by contrast, are projected used in the processes, and make up 30–40% of total emis- to increase somewhat.

Table 5.4 Historic and projected greenhouse gas emissions from production of electricity and district heating

(million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

(TWh)

Table 5.5 Historic and projected greenhouse gas emissions from refineries (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

Table 5.6 Historic and projected greenhouse gas emissions from industrial combustion (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

Table 5.7 Historic and projected emissions from industrial processes (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

76 5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures

Process-related emissions of carbon dioxide, me- from forestry machinery are expected to remain level thane and nitrous oxide are expected to increase over the projection period. somewhat over the projection horizon. Emissions of

fluorinated greenhouse gases showed a rising trend 5.3.4 Military

over the period 1990–2008, but have since fallen, a de- Emissions from military transport decreased between cline that is expected to continue from 2011 to 2020 1990 and 2011. Over the projection period, they are exand 2030. This decrease is due above all to the bans pected to remain at roughly the same level as in the last that will progressively come into effect in the EU for few years, between 0.2 and 0.3 Mt CO 2 eq (see Table several areas of use of fluorinated greenhouse gases. 5.9). The net effect on process emissions from industry is a

slight decline up to 2030 (see Table 5.7). 5.3.5 Fugitive emissions

The majority of emissions in this sector originate from

5.3.3 Other sectors refineries. Fugitive emissions are expected to remain at

Emissions from ‘Other sectors’, i.e. fuel combustion roughly the same level over the projection horizon, i.e. in the commercial and institutional, residential, and around 1.0 Mt CO 2 eq (see Table 5.10). agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors, fell sharply

from 1990 to 2011 and are expected to continue to de- 5.3.6 Transport

crease somewhat up to 2020 and 2030 (see Table 5.8). Emissions in the transport sector had increased in The decline is primarily due to heat pumps, biofuels 2011 compared with 1990. Since 2005, however, there and district heating replacing the use of oil for space has been a slight downward trend. This decline is exand water heating in homes and premises. pected to slow down, but according to the projection Emissions from energy use in agriculture are projected will continue up to 2030 (see Tables 5.11 and 5.12). to fall between 2011 and 2020, owing to reduced con- The majority of emissions come from cars and heavysumption of diesel for mobile machinery and of oil for duty vehicles. The projected decline in emissions begreenhouses and other agricultural buildings. Emissions tween 2011 and 2020 is due chiefly to reduced use of

Table 5.8 Historic and projected emissions from ‘Other sectors’* (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

* i.e. fuel combustion in the commercial/institutional, residential and agriculture/forestry/fisheries sectors

Table 5.9 Historic and projected greenhouse gas emissions from military transport (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

Table 5.10 Historic and projected fugitive emissions of greenhouse gases (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

Table 5.11 Historic and projected emissions from domestic transport (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures 77

petrol and switching to diesel and to more energy- waste tax. A further reduction in emissions has been efficient vehicles. A modest shift to biofuels will also achieved by methane recovery. The downward trend is contribute to the downward trend. projected to continue up to 2020 and 2030 (see Table Emissions from domestic aviation have fallen in recent 5.14), thanks to recovery of methane and a further deyears, with a growing proportion of passengers switching cline in the amount of waste sent to landfill. from shorter-haul flights to rail. This trend is expected Emissions of carbon dioxide from incineration of hazto continue, resulting in lower emissions in 2020 and ardous waste and of nitrous oxide from wastewater 2030. Emissions from domestic shipping are likewise treatment are low and are expected to remain at the projected to decline up to 2020 and 2030. Rail traffic same level as in 2011 over the projection horizon. is expected to increase up to 2020 and 2030, but emis-

sions are not projected to rise as most rail services are 5.3.9 Agriculture

electrified. Emissions from the agricultural sector have fallen since 1990, and the decline is projected to continue up to 2020

5.3.7 Solvent and other product use (see Table 5.15). Nitrous oxide accounts for a somewhat

Greenhouse gas emissions from the use of solvents and larger percentage reduction than methane, but also for a other products fell somewhat between 1990 and 2011. greater share of emissions. Up to 2020 and 2030, emissions are projected to remain The decrease is largely due to reduced numbers of at roughly the same level as in the last few years, just cattle, leading to lower emissions of methane from enunder 0.3 Mt CO 2 eq (see Table 5.13). teric fermentation and of methane and nitrous oxide from animal manure. Nitrous oxide emissions are also

5.3.8 Waste expected to fall as a consequence of a smaller area

Emissions of methane from landfill sites have fall- under cereals, declining use of mineral fertilisers, reen since 1990 owing to a decrease in the quantities duced leaching of nitrogen, and a shift to slurry sysof waste going to landfill, driven in part by the bans tems for manure management (see Table 5.16). on landfill disposal, municipal waste plans and the A smaller dairy herd and continued decline in the

Table 5.12 Historic and projected greenhouse gas emissions from different modes of transport (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

* includes mobile machinery not used in industry, agriculture, forestry or households

Table 5.13 Historic and projected greenhouse gas emissions from solvent and other product use (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

Table 5.14 Historic and projected greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

Table 5.15 Historic and projected emissions from the agricultural sector (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

78 5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures

cereal area up to 2020 and 2030 will be a result of in- go on rising up to 2020, though not at the same rate as creased productivity, with production maintained at before (see Table 5.18). The increase in emissions up to the same level in 2030 as today. The scenario also takes 2020 is primarily due to rising emissions from internaaccount of trends in agricultural prices and further ad- tional shipping, driven by growth in exports of goods. justment to the latest reform of EU farm policy from Greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation 2005, with its decoupling of support from production. are also projected to increase up to 2020. This can be attributed to an expected rise in private consumption,

5.3.10 Land use, land-use change and forestry which will be accompanied by increased travel.

From 1990 to 2011, the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector represented an annual net

sink for Sweden. The size of this sink varied over the 5.4 Sensitivity analysis

period, but the trend indicates a slight decline in re- Two sensitivity alternatives have been developed for the movals attributable to the sector. energy sector, one involving lower emissions (higher fos- Net removals from LULUCF are primarily depend- sil fuel prices) and the other higher emissions (higher ent on the uptake of carbon dioxide in living forest economic growth) (see Table 5.19). In the lower emisbiomass, which is in turn affected by felling and forest sions alternative, fossil fuel prices are roughly 30% higher growth. The projection is based on a long-term sus- than in the main alternative. The price of electricity is tainable scenario with maximum annual felling in rela- also assumed to be higher. Other assumptions are idention to annual growth, i.e. with no overfelling. In ad- tical to those underlying the reference scenario (see dition, harvesting of forest residues is assumed to in- Annex 5). The higher emissions alternative assumes crease in response to growing demand for bioenergy. higher growth in GDP and hence higher industrial Annual growth is assumed to rise by 2% from 2010 to growth and increased transport activity. 2020 and by 4% from 2020 to 2030, as a result of as- As expected, the alternative with higher fossil fuel sumed changes in climate. With these scenario as- prices results in lower emissions in 2030 than in the sumptions, the projection shows a decrease in the net reference scenario. With prices for fossil fuels roughly sink up to 2025, followed by an increase up to 2030 30% higher, emissions are projected to be further re- (see Table 5.17). duced by 2020, to 58.7 Mt CO 2 eq, which is some 19% lower than in 1990. By 2030, they fall to 22% below

5.3.11 International bunkers 1990 levels. The higher prices increase the incentive to

Total greenhouse gas emissions from international replace fossil fuels and improve energy efficiency. shipping and aviation – international bunkers – in- The pace of investments to phase out these fuels in creased between 1990 and 2011 and are projected to industry, and to enhance energy efficiency, is therefore

Table 5.16 Historic and projected emissions from the agricultural sector, broken down into enteric fermentation, manure

management and agricultural soils (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

Table 5.17 Historic and projected emissions and removals from LULUCF (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

Table 5.18 Historic and projected emissions from international bunkers (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures 79

expected to be stepped up. In ‘Other sectors’ (commer- are exempt from the whole of the carbon dioxide tax cial/institutional, residential and agriculture/forestry/ and most of the energy tax. E85 and other sustainable fisheries), the use of all sources of heating except bio- high-blend biofuels and biofuels with no fossil content fuels and district heating is projected to decline. are entirely exempt from carbon dioxide and energy tax Switching from fuel oil to other alternatives in these on their biomass-based component. In the case of sussectors will be accelerated. A higher oil price is expected tainable hydrotreated vegetable and animal oils and fats to slow growth in passenger transport, and for freight (HVO), exemption from these taxes has applied to up to the pace of efficiency improvements will increase, 15% by volume of HVO in diesel fuel since 1 January driven by both enhanced technology and more efficient 2012. From 1 May 2014, the Government intends to logistics. In this scenario, higher fossil fuel prices will introduce a quota obligation system for low-blend biopush up electricity prices, benefiting wind power. fuels (Govt. Bill 2011/12:100). The scenario based on higher economic growth in the The calculations show that the quota obligation energy and transport sector results in higher emissions scheme will reduce emissions by 0.4–0.6 Mt CO 2 eq by than the reference scenario. It produces a reduction of 2020 and 2030 (see Table 5.20). 18% by 2020, rather than 19% as in the reference scenario. By 2030, emissions are projected to fall by 19%. Stronger economic growth means increased produc-

tion in industry, leading to greater use of energy and 5.6 Comparison with the Fifth National hence higher emissions. It also boosts imports and ex- Communication

ports and demand for both freight and passenger trans- The projection presented in Sweden’s Fifth Nationport. al Communication on Climate Change (NC5, Ministry of the Environment 2010) showed reductions in total greenhouse gas emissions of 10% between 1990

5.5 Projection with additional measures

and 2010 and 12% between 1990 and 2020. The projec- National measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions tion set out here, in the Sixth National Communicaare continuously reviewed and updated, or new ones tion (NC6), uses partly different assumptions and asintroduced. A ‘with additional measures’ projection has sessments, based on trends over the last few years (see been developed to demonstrate the effect on emissions Table 5.21). The new projection shows a decrease in agof planned policies and measures. Continued use of gregate greenhouse gas emissions of 19% between 1990 bio fuels is considered important in meeting the mile- and 2020 and of 21% between 1990 and 2030. A comstone target for 2020 under Sweden’s Reduced Climate parison of percentage changes in emissions between Impact objective, but is also seen as a key component 1990 and 2020, overall and by sector, is shown in Fig. 5.3. of energy and climate policy in the longer term and in The projection presented here for the energy sector, working towards the Government’s priority of a vehicle excluding transport, indicates a larger reduction of fleet independent of fossil fuels. emissions by 2020 compared with that in NC5. The With effect from 1 February 2013, to promote renew- difference is mainly due to differing assumptions, for able energy in the road transport sector, sustainable bio- instance regarding fossil fuel prices and electricity fuels in petrol and diesel, in blends of up to 5% by volume, certificates.

Table 5.19 Historic and projected greenhouse gas emissions for different sensitivity alternatives, excl. LULUCF

(million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

alternative Higher emissions 72.8 61.4 60.7 60.0 59.5 59.1 –18% –19% alternative

Table 5.20 Historic and projected total greenhouse gas emissions in the reference scenario and with additional measures, excl. LULUCF (million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

measures 80 5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures

For transport, the new projection shows a small de- tions regarding trends in production, productivity and crease in emissions up to 2020, compared with a rela- other factors. tively large increase as projected in NC5. The difference For the waste sector, a somewhat smaller decline in between the two projections is above all a result of as- emissions is projected for 2020. The difference is due sumptions of greater improvements in energy efficiency to a new projection having been developed, based on and higher fossil fuel prices in NC6 than in NC5. new assumptions. Emissions from solvent and other product use de- 40% crease to the same extent in the projection for NC6 as in that for NC5. 20% The projection for the land use, land-use change and 0% forestry sector shows a somewhat smaller net sink com- -20% aste pared with NC5. The difference is partly attributable to Energy W 1990–2020 NC5 Transport LULUCF a revision of the time series of greenhouse gas emissions Agriculture 1990–2020 NC6 -40% and removals and the development of a new projection. Total emissions -60% Solvent and other product use Industrial processes

5.7 Assessment of aggregate effects of

-80%

policies and measures

-100% Figure 5.3 Percentage changes in emissions between 1990 This section describes the overall effects of the ecoand 2020 as projected in NC5 and NC6, overall and by sector. nomic instruments introduced since 1990 and reported and quantified in Chapter 4. Table 5.22 pre- Table 5.21 Key assumptions for projections in the Fifth and sents the aggregate effects of the instruments imple- Sixth National Communications (NC5 and NC6) mented for which estimates have been made.

NC5 NC6

2005 2010 2010 2020 Table 5.22 Estimated effects of economic instruments

–2010 –2020 –2020 –2030 implemented, by sector (million tonnes of CO equivalent/

2

GDP (annual 2.6 2.1 2.4 1.9 year) (summary of account in Chapter 4) change, %)

crude oil Residential and 0.3 0.5 (US$/barrel) commercial/ Price of coal 96 96 104 110 institutional (US$/tonne) Industry 0 0.2 Price of 9.2 9.2 10 12 Transport 4.6 5 natural gas (US$/MBtu) Waste 1.7 1.9

Emissions 30 30 16.5 36 Total 22.6 23.6 trading ( € / tonne CO 2 )

Fig. 5.4 shows an estimated emissions trajectory with-

Electricity 17 TWh by 25 TWh by

certifi- 2016 2020 out measures, together with a graph of historic and procates (new jected emissions in Sweden up to 2020. Historic and

renewable

projected emissions include the effects of policies and

electricity)

measures implemented since 1990, and of existing and

Nuclear 60 years 60 years

power planned measures from 2012. In addition to the effects

(economic

of the policies and measures presented in Chapter 4,

life)

the ‘without measures’ estimate takes account of the The projection for industrial processes shows a fall in effects of the cross-sectoral instruments LIP (local inemissions by 2020, compared with a rise in NC5. The vestment programmes for ecologically sustainable dedifference is partly due to different assumptions and as- velopment) and KLIMP (local climate investment prosessments in the new projection, based on developments grammes), which have been discontinued. The ‘with in recent years. measures’ projection encompasses policies and meas- For agriculture, the projection indicates a smaller ures adopted up to 2012, while the ‘with additional reduction of emissions up to 2020. This is because a measures’ projection also includes the planned instrunew projection has been developed, with new assump- ments presented in section 5.5.

5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures 81

100 Estimated emissions without measures transactions in AAUs, certified emission reductions 90 80 (CERs) etc. The preliminary figure for average total eq) 2 Projected emissions with measures 70 emissions is 61.7 Mt CO 2 eq, which means that, on 60 Historical emissions with measures 50 Projected emissions with additional measures average, emissions are 13.3 Mt CO 2 eq below the 40 30 target, taking into account the effect of the EU ETS. 20 Emissions (Mt CO 10 0 Table 5.23 Progress towards the Kyoto target (million 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

tonnes of CO 2 equivalent)

Figure 5.4 Estimated emissions without measures and with Kyoto base-year emissions 72.2 Mt additional measures, compared with historic and projected Kyoto target, base year to first commitment period 4% (2008–12)

emissions with existing measures.

Kyoto target for 2008–12, per year 75 Mt EU ETS allocation (2008–12) 22.4 Mt Preliminary non-EU ETS emissions (2008–12) 41.5 Mt

5.8 Progress towards meeting Sweden’s EU ETS allocation + preliminary non-EU ETS 63.9 Mt

emissions, per year

commitment for the first commitment

Carbon sink under Articles 3.3 and 3.4 2.13 Mt

period of the Kyoto Protocol Emissions 2008–12 per year, incl. carbon sink 61.7 Mt

Average surplus of AAUs, per year 13.3 Mt Under Sweden’s commitment for the first commit- Emissions 2008–12 incl. carbon sink, relative to –18% ment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–12) and EU base-year emissions burden sharing, greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden, excluding LULUCF, are not to exceed the country’s as- Over the period 1990–2011, LULUCF represented an signed amount, which was 104% of base-year emissions annual net sink in Sweden, varying in size between 27 as an average for the years 2008–12 when assigned and 38 Mt CO 2 eq. Only part of this carbon sink can amount units (AAUs) were allocated. The base year is be counted towards meeting the country’s Kyoto com- 1990 for all emissions except fluorinated greenhouse mitment. Accounting under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto gases, for which it is 1995. Base-year emissions, when Protocol is mandatory, whereas countries can choose the assigned amount was determined, were 72.2 Mt whether they wish to account for activities under CO 2 eq. This means that Sweden’s assigned amount of Article 3.4. Sweden has elected to account for forest emissions was set at 75 Mt CO 2 eq per year, as an av- management under Article 3.4. erage for 2008–12, taking no account of flexibilities. Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol is expected to Of this amount, around 22.4 Mt CO 2 eq has been al- result in a net emission for Sweden over the commitlocated to the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). ment period, as emissions from deforestation exceed The limit on emissions not included in the trading sys- removals resulting from afforestation and reforestatem is thus 52.6 Mt CO 2 eq as an average for 2008–12. tion. An estimate indicates an emission of 0.6 Mt CO 2 Sweden’s total greenhouse gas emissions for 2008– eq per year, but this figure is very uncertain. Under 11, i.e. the first four years of the first commitment Article 3.4, Sweden is expected to have a total net period of Kyoto, have been reported. For 2012, there sink from LULUCF that is greater than the net source are provisional emissions data that can be used to under Article 3.3. This means that the country can make a preliminary assessment of progress towards the offset its emissions under Article 3.3 and then claim target for the first commitment period. For emissions credit for a carbon sink of a maximum of 2.13 Mt CO 2 covered by the EU ETS, reported figures are available eq. Table 5.23 shows that Sweden’s Kyoto target can be for the whole of the first period. Preliminary average met with national measures alone, even with no allowemissions outside the EU ETS for the period 2008–12 ance made for the carbon sink. come to 41.5 Mt CO 2 eq. A gap analysis has been performed in relation to the target of 52.6 Mt CO 2 eq for

non-EU ETS emissions. The preliminary analysis shows 5.9 Progress towards targets under the that emissions are 11.1 Mt CO 2 eq below this target. EU Climate and Energy Package

In addition, Sweden can claim credit for a carbon sink of 2.13 Mt CO 2 eq under Articles 3.3 and 3.4 of Under the EU Climate and Energy Package, greenthe Kyoto Protocol. This means that Sweden’s emis- house gas emissions from the Union are to be reduced sions are permitted to amount to a maximum of 77.13 by 20% compared with 1990 by 2020. Emissions from Mt CO 2 eq on average for 2008–12, not allowing for installations included in the EU Emissions Trading

82 5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures

Table 5.24 Historic and projected emissions from non-EU ETS sectors in Sweden and ESD target trajectory for 2013–2020,

million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent (based on Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 2013 and EU ETS scope for 2013–2020)

2005 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Projection for non-EU ETS 45.5 37.2 35.4 emissions ESD target trajectory 40.8 40.2 39.6 38.9 38.3 37.7 37.1 36.4 (2013–2020) System (EU ETS) are to fall by 21% between 2005 and emissions may be utilised (Swedish Environmental 2020 for the EU as a whole. Emissions not covered by Protection Agency 2013), plus the equivalent of anthe trading system are to be reduced in line with the other 1% of 2005 emissions for credits meeting special Effort Sharing Decision (ESD, Decision No 406/2009/ conditions. Per year, this possible use of credits cor- EC). For Sweden, this decision means that emissions responds to 1.8 Mt CO 2 eq. In addition, up to 5% of are to be cut by 17% between 2005 and 2020, in line annual emission allocations (AEAs) can be transferred with a target emissions trajectory (see Table 5.24). between member states. Beyond this, Sweden can, in In 2005, emissions from Swedish installations includ- the event of a shortfall, borrow up to 5% of its AEA ed in the EU ETS totalled 19.4 Mt CO 2 eq. If estimated from the following year. In the event of a surplus, it emissions from additional installations during the can carry over the unused part of the year’s AEA to second trading period (2008–12) and emissions from subsequent years. domestic aviation are added, emissions within the EU Under the EU Renewables Directive, the share of ETS in 2005 can be estimated at 21.8 Mt CO 2 eq. In renewable energy in Sweden is to increase to 49% by the projection, emission allowance prices of € 17 per 2020. In the reference scenario, the renewable energy tonne in 2020 and € 38 per tonne in 2030 (at constant share that year is estimated at 50.6%. In the scenario 2007 prices) have been assumed. In the models used, with higher economic growth, the share is reduced to these prices – along with other prices and policy in- 50.1%, owing to an increase in energy use. In the scenstruments – affect the sectors covered by the EU ETS. ario based on higher fossil fuel prices, the share is the With the assumptions made, the projection estimates same as in the reference scenario. High prices for fossil emissions from EU ETS installations at 23.8 Mt CO 2 eq fuels favour the use of renewable energy sources and in 2020 and 23.7 Mt CO 2 eq in 2030 (EU ETS scope for promote greater energy efficiency, keeping energy use the third trading period, including aviation emissions). in check. Sweden’s EU ETS allocation for the period 2008–12 has, to date, been 22.4 Mt CO 2 eq per year. A further

0.2 Mt CO 2 eq can be allocated for new entrants. The 5.10 Progress towards the milestone allocation for Swedish installations up to 2020 has target for Sweden’s environmental

yet to be decided. Since emission reductions arising

quality objective Reduced Climate

from the trading system may be implemented either

in Sweden or in other member states, it is not possible Impact

to estimate the system’s effect on Swedish emissions. The Swedish milestone target for the environmental Progress towards the target can therefore only be as- quality objective Reduced Climate Impact, 3 as defined sessed at the EU level. in the Riksdag’s climate policy decision of June 2009 Emissions from non-trading sectors (based on the (Govt. Bill 2008/09:162), calls for emissions from acscope of the EU ETS for the third trading period) tivities not included in the EU ETS to be reduced by amounted to 45.5 Mt CO 2 eq in 2005 (see Table 5.24). 40%, or around 20 Mt CO 2 eq, between 1990 and 2020. In the ‘with measures’ projection, these emissions are One-third of this reduction, or roughly 6.7 Mt CO 2 eq, estimated to decrease to 35.4 Mt CO 2 eq by 2020. can be achieved by means of investments in emission According to this projection, Sweden will comfort- reductions in other countries. ably meet its ESD target trajectory, with between 1 Preliminary projections indicate that this target will and 3 Mt CO 2 eq per year to spare. The ‘with addition- be met. An in-depth evaluation of progress towards it al measures’ projection includes policy instruments will be undertaken as part of the Checkpoint 2015 apin the transport sector that are estimated to reduce praisal of climate policy. emissions by a further 0.4–0.6 Mt CO 2 eq by 2020. Under EU rules, Sweden can use carbon credits from international projects towards meeting its commitment. Annually, credits corresponding to 3% of 2005 3 http://www.government.se/sb/d/5775/a/217993.

5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures 83

5.11 References for Chapter 5

Ministry of the Environment (2010). Sweden’s Fifth National Communication on Climate Change under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Ds 2009:63.

Ministry of the Environment (2013). Report for Sweden on assessment of projected progress, March 2013. In accordance with article 3.2 under Council Decision No 280/2004/EC on a Mechanism for Monitoring Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions and for Implementing the Kyoto Protocol.

Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (2013). National Inventory Report, Sweden, 2013 .

84 5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures

5. Projections and the total effect of policies and measures 85

6 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures

6.1 Introduction trative boards (CABs), which are already responsible

Climate change affects large parts of Swedish society. for regional coordination of climate change adapta- In its final report (SOU 2007:60), the Swedish Com- tion issues (Govt. Bill 2011/12:1). mission on Climate and Vulnerability evaluated climate Since 2009, CABs have had a Government remit to change impacts and adaptation requirements for various coordinate adaptation efforts regionally. In doing so sectors. Since then, adaptation efforts in Sweden have they are assisted by the national agencies. The CABs’ been stepped up by various means, such as the assign- areas of work include nature conservation and environments announced in An Integrated Climate and Energy mental protection, social care, communications, food Policy (Govt. Bill 2008/09:162). This Bill clarifies the inspection, animal welfare and general veterinary Government’s overall policy for climate change adapta- issues, agriculture, reindeer husbandry (in the counties tion. of Norrbotten, Västerbotten and Jämtland), fishing, In spring 2010, government agencies’ adaptation gender equality, the cultural environment, regional remits and activities were summarised and presented development, sustainable planning and housing, civil in a report entitled Climate Adaptation in Sweden: An defence, crisis management in peacetime and rescue Overview (Rydell, Nilsson, Alfredsson & Lind 2010). In services. In all these areas, taking the need for climate autumn 2012 this report was followed up and updated change adaptation into account may be relevant. to present the agencies in charge of the respective ac- The role of municipalities comprises several imtivities and whether the latter were ‘current’ or ‘com- portant activities to which climate adaptation is of pleted’. Where feasible, the activities were presented relevance. Municipal responsibilities include ensuring with the associated documentation (SMHI 2013a). that there are functioning installations for water, sewer- Responsibility for climate change adaptation is div- age, energy and waste; hospitals and care services; and ided among several government agencies that, based on schools and social care facilities. Municipalities also their respective sectoral responsibilities, have impor- exercise official authority under various legislative tant roles to play. Some 30 agencies are working to instruments, with responsibility for inspection, supercarry out preventive measures, achieve greater skills vision and licensing. They are, for example, in charge of and knowledge, and foster better preparedness for dis- environmental protection and nature conservation, ruptions in key societal functions. and also review and supervision, under the Swedish In 2012 the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrologi- Environmental Code. Their crisis preparedness and cal Institute (SMHI) was tasked with establishing a rescue services are key functions for developing risk National Knowledge Centre for Climate Change and vulnerability assessments in climate change adap- Adaptation as a hub for knowledge accumulation, tation. The municipalities’ spheres of responsibility development and dissemination to various parts of include sectorised work planning, but they also bear society. This Centre will, in particular, gather, compile overall responsibility for examining and approving and make available knowledge of climate change adap- physical planning: comprehensive and detailed developtation derived regionally, nationally and internation- ment plans and building permit applications. ally. Relevant public agencies can assist the proposed Knowledge Centre, as can Sweden’s county adminis-

86 6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures

6.2 Sweden’s changing climate Table 6.1 Global climate models from CMIP5 and scena-

rios for radiative forcing used to develop boundary data for

To permit more realistic and extensive vulnerability

regional climate scenarios with RCA4. The regional scena-

assessments of climate change, numerous new studies rios were run with 50-kilometre horizontal resolution. For of conceivable regional climate changes have been con- scenarios marked with an asterisk (*), an additional simula-

tion with 12.5-kilometre resolution is available.

ducted at SMHI’s Rossby Centre in the past few years.

AOGCM Modelling centre Radiative forcing

These have mainly used the Regional Atmospheric

(RCP)

Climate Model (RCA). Today, more extensive data are CanESM2 Canadian Centre for Climate 4.5, 8.5 available than were reported in Sweden’s Fifth National Modelling and Analysis Communication (NC5). The latest regional climate CNRM-CM5 Centre National de 4.5, 8.5* scenarios use data from nine different global climate Recherches Météorologiques / Centre Européen de Rechermodels (GCMs), presenting them as an ensemble. A che et Formation Avancée en large ensemble of regional climate scenarios facilitates Calcul Scientifique studies of both uncertainties in and robust features of EC-EARTH EC-EARTH consortium 2.6*, 4.5*, 8.5* such scenarios. GFDL-ESM2M NOAA Geophysical Fluid 4.5, 8.5 Dynamics Laboratory The new regional climate scenario ensemble is based HadGEM2-ES Met Office Hadley Centre 4.5*, 8.5* on a new version of the Swedish regional climate IPSL-CM5A-MR Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace 4.5, 8.5* model that uses the IPCC’s new scenarios for radiative MIROC5 Atmosphere and Ocean 4.5, 8.5 forcing, especially two Representative Concentration Research Institute (The Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. All the simulations University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental took input data from the latest generation of GCMs Studies, and Japan Agency (CMIP5, the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter- for Marine-Earth Science and Technology comparison Project). Simulations with several GCMs MPI-ESM-LR Max Planck 4.5, 8.5* have been used as boundary data. Since local and re- Institute for Meteorology gional climatic variations may be large, the regional NorESM1-M Norwegian Climate Centre 4.5, 8.5 climate scenario ensemble also contains calculations based on different simulations with a single emission scenario and global model. Table 6.1 lists these regional climate models. in the summer and moves south for the rest of the Broadly, the results from the new climate scenario year. Every scenario shows rising precipitation throughensemble confirm the findings drawn from the regional out Sweden, but in some cases falls in the far south in scenario data presented in NC5 and in scientific articles summer. The largest increase in precipitation can be based on this material (Kjellström et al. 2011; Nikulin expected in the winter. et al. 2011). The results show, in particular, substantial Figs. 6.1 and 6.2 show clearly that RCA4 largely folwarming and changes in precipitation. Examples are lows the GCMs in terms of large-scale climate change shown in Figs. 6.1 and 6.2, which present ensemble in Europe. There are also areas where the results diverstatistics from the nine RCP4.5 simulations for the end ge. For example, Fig. 6.2 shows a tendency for RCA4, of this century. in general, to indicate a higher rise in precipitation in The largest temperature changes in Sweden are ex- northern Europe. These differences are due to the dispected in the winter months, especially in the north- parities in process descriptions both among the global ernmost parts of the country. This will be due, above models and also between RCA4 and the global models. all, to shrinkage of snow cover, which boosts warm- Accordingly, RCA4 sometimes shows a more similar ing because a smaller quantity of white snow on the signal for climate change in the various runs (see, for ground that reflects solar radiation back into space example, the changes in precipitation in parts of eastcauses more energy absorption by the land. Moreover, ern Europe, where the spread is considerably smaller heat conduction from a snow-free substrate is greater in the RCA4 ensemble compared with the results from than if the ground is covered by an insulating layer of the driving GCMs). The regional model has a higher snow. resolution and provides a more detailed picture of the Corresponding changes in summer precipitation are climate change signal, which may mean that the diffeshown in Fig. 6.2. A clear distinction between an in- rences among different runs are accentuated in certain crease in northern Europe and a decrease in southern areas (see, for example, the changes in precipitation in Europe may be seen. The dividing line between the the Alps, the Scandinavian mountain range and over areas of increase and decrease is close to Scandinavia Iceland).

6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures 87

Figure 6.1 Estimated winter temperature, °C (December, January and February) from 1971 to 2000 (far left) and climate

change from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100 (second from left). The two images at the far left correspond to the mean in an ensemble of nine simulations. The third image from the left shows the spread, calculated as a standard deviation, among the nine simulations, while the image at the far right shows how many models indicate temperature rises. The upper images show results from RCA4, the lower ones corresponding results directly derived from the driving global climate models.

Figure 6.2 Estimated summer precipitation (millimetres per month in June, July and August) from 1971 to 2000 (far left)

and climate change (%) from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100 (second from left). The two images at the far left correspond to the mean in an ensemble of nine simulations. The third image from the left shows the spread, calculated as a standard deviation among the nine simulations, and the image at the far right shows how many models indicate a rise in precipitation. The upper images show results from RCA4, the lower ones corresponding results directly derived from the driving global climate models.

88 6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures

The extended body of data also clarifies how the choice 6.2.1 Measured changes in temperature and of global model affects not least the size of changes precipitation

(Fig. 6.3). Studies based on the data presented in NC5 Noted changes in temperature and precipitation in have previously illustrated the substantial role of Sweden over the past few years tie in well with obnatural variability in the short term (Kjellström et al. served global warming and are in line with estimated 2011). In the longer term, the choice of emissions changes due to anthropogenic impact on the climate. scenario has a dominant influence on the magnitude of Although we have recently had two relatively cold climate change. winters (2009/10 and 2010/11), the overall picture is

Figure 6.3 Estimated changes in annual precipitation (%) against estimated changes in annual mean temperature (°C) from

1971–2000 to 2011–2040 (green), 2041–2070 (blue) and 2071–2100 (red) for an area in northern Europe. Results substantiated by the two scenarios, RCP4.5 and 8.5, are represented. The left-hand figure shows the RCA4 ensemble and the right-hand one results based on the nine GCMs.

that temperatures are remaining higher than in the ref- indicate a reduction in water supply. This picture erence period, 1961–90. Most striking, perhaps, are the emerges consistently from the various scenarios. The continued high precipitation surpluses during the differences among the estimates are mainly quantitative, year, especially in the summer. An illustrative analysis i.e. they differ with respect to the size of the change. of possible climate trends in all the Swedish counties

during the 21st century, and of trends up to and in- 6.2.2 Wind

cluding 2012, has been performed using a few scenarios SMHI’s climate indicator, ‘geostrophic wind’, showed and observations. One example is shown in Fig. 6.4. no major variations for the period 1951–2012. Future The changes in temperature and precipitation that changes in wind conditions are highly uncertain, occur when the climate changes affect run-off into since global models differ widely in how far largewater courses, by influencing both the total quantity scale circulation over the North Atlantic and Europe of water and its annual distribution. Fig. 6.5 shows changes. Features common to most scenarios are a how the total supply of water changes according to a decrease in wind speed in the Mediterranean region; few scenarios (SMHI 2013b). a certain increase in the North Sea region; and in- For northern Sweden and the south-western parts creased wind speeds over the parts of the Baltic Sea of the country, an increased water supply is evident. that will become ice-free in a future warmer climate For Skåne and the south-east, the climate scenarios (the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Bothnia).

6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures 89

Estimated change in mean winter temperature compared with 1961–90, Stockholm county, RCP4.5 scenario.

Year Estimated change in mean winter temperature compared with 1961–90, Stockholm county, RCP4.5 scenario.

Year Figure 6.4 Examples of climate trends for Stockholm county. Estimated change in winter temperature (upper diagram)

and winter precipitation (lower diagram) for the years 1961–2100, compared with the mean for 1961–90. The bars show historical data derived from observations: red and green (blue and yellow) bars show, respectively, values above and below the mean for 1961–90. The graphs are taken from nine RCA4 simulations of the RCP4.5 scenario. The thick black line is the mean of all nine simulations and the grey area shows the spread between the highest and lowest values among the various model simulations.

6.2.3 Variability and extremes

Simulated changes in extremes, such as changes in maximum and minimum temperature, are often more marked than corresponding changes in mean values. This is illustrated for minimum temperature in Fig. 6.6, where the change is almost twice as large as the corresponding change in mean winter temperature in Fig. 6.1.

2069–2098 Change, %

Figure 6.5 The maps show the percentage change in the ag-

gregate volume of run-off into watercourses during the year. The map at top left shows the change in mean values for the period 2021–50 compared with 1963–92, while the one 2021–2050 2069–2098 at top right shows the corresponding values for 2069–98. The small maps below illustrate the spread of the climate simulations (25th and 75th percentiles). This spread may be regarded as a measure of the uncertainty of the analysis. The analysis is based on observations and estimates from SMHI and an ensemble of 16 different climate scenarios from international research (IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES). The Swedish HBV hydrological model, applied to 1,001 subareas, has been used to estimate the discharges (river flows) on which the analysis is based. 25th percentile 75th percentile 25th percentile 75th percentile

90 6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures

Estimated changes in extreme rainfall give a relatively 6.3.1 Infrastructure

fragmented picture, with major variation from one cli- Technical infrastructure, comprising roads, railways, mate scenario to another. However, the overall picture buildings, broadband and water and sewerage systems, shows an increase in extreme precipitation in a future is affected by the climate. Infrastructure often conwarmer climate. This entails an increase in the flood sists of systems and installations intended to last for risks associated with stormwater systems and other a long time. It is therefore important to consider direct rainwater run-off in, broadly speaking, the whole climate change right from the planning phase, and to of Sweden. include adaptation to climate change as a natural part of planning infrastructural investments.

6.3 Climate change impacts and 6.3.1.1 Communications vulnerability assessment The expected climate change may bring substantial

consequences for Sweden’s network of roads, which are Most activities in Sweden will be affected by climate often located close to water. The anticipated rise in prechange involving rising temperatures and altered precipitation and increased flows will entail flooding, with cipitation patterns. Risks of flooding, forest fires, heatwashing-away of roads and embankments, and damage waves, landslides and erosion are expected to increase to bridges. High water flows spell an elevated risk of in many parts of the country. It is therefore important landslides, exacerbating the risk of road damage. The to take action now, already, for buildings, roads, railroad network will also be affected by the expected rise ways, electricity and telecoms networks, and water in temperature and resulting reduction in the depth of and sewerage systems. In physical planning, it is imfrozen ground. The latter causes a decrease in deformaportant to take climate change into account, to avoid tion of road superstructure and surfaces. Where frozen building further risks into society.

Figure 6.6 Estimated 20-year extreme minimum temperature (˚C, December, January and February), in 1971–2000 (far left),

and scenario results for climate change (˚C) from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100 (second from left). The two images at the far left correspond to the means in an ensemble of nine simulations; the third image from the left shows the spread, estimated as a standard deviation among the nine simulations; and the image at the far right displays how many models show higher minimum temperatures. The upper images show results from RCA4, the lower ones results derived directly from the driving global climate models.

6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures 91

ground is a foundation for road construction more 6.3.1.3 Drinking water supply and wastewater maintenance may, however, be required. A higher tem- management

perature and higher groundwater levels can bring more Climate change will affect the supply of drinking water. rutting. Together, these effects mean that the requisite Water resources are expected to increase in many measures to maintain the road network will shift from places, except in the south-east of Sweden where, infrost heave-related actions to those concerned with stead, there is a risk of water scarcity. In the parts of heat and water loads. the country where greater precipitation is expected, The consequences for Sweden’s railways will also be the result may be floods that can have repercussions substantial. Increased and more intense precipitation on the water supply. When there is flooding upstream will exacerbate such effects as flooding and washing- of water sources, contaminants may enter lakes and away of embankment structures, with the associated watercourses, exacerbating the risk of waterborne risk of landslides. The expected rise in temperature infection and viruses spreading. The increased risk during the summer will worsen the risk of railway tracks of floods and landslides may make it possible for buckling on hot days. Stronger winds, especially in the pollutants from contaminated soil and old landfills to south of Sweden, may elevate the risk of forest wind- be dispersed. A higher temperature will lower the throw and disruption of the power supply for the rail quality of raw water in water sources, since it will network. cause increased leaching of nutrients and humus. This, Climate change will probably not affect shipping and in turn, will result in brown-coloured water and inaviation to any great extent. However, rising seas may creased eutrophication. Water pipes may be damaged have an adverse effect on ports and harbours, particu- by downpours that cause landslides. In the southern larly in the southernmost parts of the country. On the parts of Sweden a rise in sea level may mean a greater other hand, shrinking of sea ice facilitates winter ship- risk of saltwater intrusion into water sources close to ping to and from Swedish harbours, especially along the the coast. coast of Norrland. The expected increase in extreme rains exacerbates Telecommunications, with overhead lines and masts, the risk of drainage pipes becoming overloaded, leadwill be affected by climate change. The main effect will ing to a greater risk of back-flowing water and basebe a higher risk of windthrow damage owing to reduced ment flooding. Overloaded drains may also result in extent and duration of frozen ground. large-scale overflows of wastewater in sewage works, thereby elevating environmental and health risks.

6.3.1.2 Buildings Settlements have often been sited in areas beside lakes 6.3.1.4 Supply and use of energy

and watercourses, but also close to the coast. Water- A climate with milder winters will reduce heating front development, which is already often exposed to requirements in homes and other premises. This will flooding today, will be subject to particular risk in a help to reduce overall heating needs and peak loads on changed climate. Owing to increased precipitation, electricity production and networks. In the summer floods are expected to become more frequent, especi- months, greater cooling will be required when temally in western and south-western Sweden. Flooding peratures rise. All in all, however, energy requirements problems caused by heavy downpours are expected to are expected to decrease and this will entail cost grow throughout the country (Olsson & Foster 2013). savings. Areas not subject to flood risk at present may thus be Hydropower production will be favoured by inaffected in the future. In the long term, problems creased water inflow and the more even annual rhythm caused by the rising sea level may hit coastal towns in in water flow that is expected. Wind power production southern Sweden (Bergström 2012). may benefit, since the energy content of winds in the A warmer and damper climate increases the risk of Baltic Sea region is expected to rise in the long term. damp and mould in buildings. Buildings of cultural Excessively windy conditions and icing may, however, and historic interest may be particularly vulnerable, cause problems for this sector. Bioenergy production is as they are older and often located in areas close to the expected to increase as the climate becomes milder coast. Rising temperatures may affect cooling require- and the growing season longer. ments for buildings, causing energy use to rise. Com- Changed climatic conditions may also have an impact bined with greater humidity, this will necessitate new on security of supply in the energy sector. In the hydrobuilding technology, materials and locations. power industry, heavy rains may cause dam bursts with large-scale repercussions for society.

92 6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures

6.3.2 Agriculture, forestry, fisheries and tion period and the volume of summer plant productourism tion are expected to increase, while the expected rise

The climate change and lengthening of the growing in temperature and precipitation may exacerbate season that are expected may bring production ad- insect harassment for the reindeer. Winter conditions vantages for forestry and farming. Growth in Swedish will be more unstable, with ice formation and recurforests will probably increase owing to a warmer cli- rent thaws. Ice accumulation under the snow will mate in the decades ahead, but this warmth also spells make it difficult for the reindeer to find food, making greater risks of damage. Milder winters may permit supplementary feeding necessary. The reduced areas a higher survival rate among deer and hence heavier of bare mountain may lead to an increase in conflicts browsing pressure on immature pine and deciduous of interest between reindeer herding and other livelitrees. Conditions may improve for many insect pests hoods. If conditions for reindeer herding deteriorate, and some harmful fungi. Sami culture will be threatened as well. A longer growing season may favour root rot, since In a changed climate, with warmer summers, condithis spreads best when felling takes place during the tions for summer tourism will improve. In particular, growth phase. Windthrow may increase, owing to high beach tourism and outdoor recreation close to seas and waters in winter and an absence of frozen ground. lakes may benefit. Climate change may cause tourist With longer summers, the spruce bark beetle may flows to the Mediterranean region in the hottest become more of a problem. Risks of forest fires and summer months to decrease, while those to Scandinavia spring frosts are expected to increase, and there will increase. One key question for the trend in summer be a greater need for forest roads that withstand mild tourism will be how climate change affects water winters. quality and algal blooms in Scandinavian lakes and Attempting to spread risks through greater tree- seas. As for winter tourism, the season for many ski species diversity than before, and to counteract the resorts in Sweden will become shorter. ‘sprucification’ already encouraged by the problem of

wildlife browsing, will become more important. Cre- 6.3.3 The natural environment and biodiversity

ating mixed forests may enhance security, since most Climate change is expected to cause changes in bioinsect pests and several harmful fungi are specific to diversity and ecosystems, and consequently in the certain tree species. It will be vital to incorporate capacity of ecosystems to supply goods and services. It more environmental awareness into forest manage- will affect biodiversity both directly, through changed ment in various ways. temperature and precipitation, and indirectly through For agriculture, the positive and negative effects of changed land use. Richly biodiverse ecosystems have a climate change are expected broadly to cancel each greater capacity to withstand disturbances, i.e. are other out. Higher carbon dioxide concentrations are more resilient. This means that ecosystems where bioexpected to boost yields by some 5%, and improved diversity, as such, has been preserved are better at scope for growing more autumn-sown crops and, for withstanding disturbances due to climate change. example, maize is expected. Simultaneously, condi- When the climate becomes warmer, climatic and tions affecting harvests may deteriorate and the risk of vegetation zones shift northwards. There are effects on drought may increase. Areas that are dry today may be plant and animal reproduction, population distribuexpected to become drier, and those where precipita- tion and size, and the incidence of pest organisms. Untion is already high may be expected to become wetter. common species may disappear, while new species may A warm climate may mean major changes for fisher- become established. Mountain areas are particularly ies. Water temperature has a crucial bearing on living sensitive to climate change. Sweden’s bare mountain conditions for fish. In Sweden, there are both cold- areas are expected to decrease sharply as the treeline water and warm-water species. rises. In the 20th century, the treeline rose some 100– The expected warming of the Baltic Sea, combined 150 m in the Swedish mountains. Subalpine birch with a decrease in salinity, could mean that species im- forest will shrink as the snow cover becomes thinner portant to the fishing industry, such as Baltic herring, and less permanent. On the other hand, tree species cod and salmon, are eliminated. The extent of the like pine and spruce will come to predominate across latter changes will depend on the size of the former, the mountain slopes. expected trends. In freshwater, conditions for cold-wa- The Baltic Sea will become warmer. The maximum ter species will worsen while warm-water species are ice cover will decrease, but vary from year to year. favoured. Impacts on West Coast fishing are less clear. Since 2012, SMHI has had a climate indicator that In reindeer-herding areas, the length of the vegeta- shows annual maximum ice cover (see Fig. 6.7). This

6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures 93

indicator is based on SMHI’s daily analyses of the ice may impact directly on human health, since drinking situation in the Baltic. The area covered includes the water is rapidly contaminated when drains overflow or whole Baltic Sea and the Kattegat. water from polluted ground reaches water sources. A change in ecosystems and species ranges may cause Annual maximum ice cover in the Baltic Sea, 1957–2012 new diseases, especially vector-borne illnesses, to enter 450 Sweden. Examples are Lyme disease and tick-borne 400 encephalitis (TBE). Today, ticks range virtually through- 350 out Sweden. 2 ) 300

km

6.4 Current and completed climate

3

250 200

adaptation activities

Ice cover (x10 150 Since 2005, Sweden’s climate change adaptation has 100 been intensified in various ways. In An Integrated 50 Climate and Energy Policy (Govt. Bill 2008/09:162), the 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Government presented overarching proposals on how year further adaptation to climate change should be con- Figure 6.7 Annual maximum ice cover in the Baltic Sea, ducted. At national level, central government agencies 1957–2012 (with preliminary figures for 2012). are fulfilling their respective sectoral responsibilities The black line shows a smoothed trend. to prepare Sweden well for meeting the challenges posed by climate change. A selection of these agencies’ activities are given below. Globally rising seas will raise the level of the Baltic Sea • The Swedish National Board of Housing, Building as well. Owing to land uplift in Sweden, however, this and Planning has drawn up an online guide for will be most marked in the south. The salinity of the communication and information about the new Baltic is expected to change as a result of the increased Planning and Building Act (the ‘PBA Knowledge input of freshwater from precipitation and river run- Bank’). The contents of this guide apply primaroff and also, to some extent, of changed conditions in ily to comprehensive and detailed development terms of wind direction. The extent of the change in plans, permits and building, and implementation salinity will be hard to predict because of the major of plans. uncertainties in wind and precipitation scenarios. • SMHI collects information about climate change Changed conditions in the Baltic Sea will bring major at www.smhi.se. The site includes climate scenarchanges for biodiversity. ios at national level as well as classified by county, catchment area and meteorological district.

6.3.4 Human health There are also continuously updated climate in-

A changed climate, with extremely high temperatures dices and indicators, a knowledge bank of articles in the summer months, may have direct repercussions and visualisations of climate data. Moreover, the on particularly vulnerable groups. These are, above all, site provides observation data for 150 weather the elderly and people with cardiovascular and lung stations for the period 1961–2011. diseases, who may suffer when heatwaves occur. • During 2012, SMHI launched a new heatwave Swedes, being less accustomed to heatwaves than many warning system. other Europeans, are considered to be more sensitive • The National Veterinary Institute, National to extreme heat. Board of Health and Welfare, Swedish Institute With warmer weather, the growing season is lengthe- for Communicable Disease Control, Swedish ned. This affects the duration and intensity of the pollen Board of Agriculture and National Food Agency season and may alter the range of pollen-producing are working together to achieve greater knowlspecies – changes that may bring an increase in pollen edge, stronger collaboration and organisation allergies. One positive effect of a milder winter climate among the public agencies in the area of climate is that ailments related to cold weather may be expected and infectious diseases. The aim is to establish to decrease. and further develop preparedness for climate- Higher summer temperatures may also boost the risk related risks of infection spread and diseases of infections spread with food and water. Flood risk affected by climatic conditions.

94 6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures

• The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) • Future climate change may entail flooding around has been tasked with supporting municipalities Vänern, Sweden’s largest lake, and along the Göta and county administrative boards with overview älv river. The Västra Götaland county administramapping of stability and flood risks. These maps tive board has agreed with Vattenfall on a modiare an important basis for climate adaptation, fied water release strategy to eliminate flood risk spatial planning and risk management. around Vänern and the risk of landslides along • The Floods Directive is implemented in Swe- the Göta älv. Using a forecasting model, the reden through an ordinance on flood risks (SFS lease of water is governed by the current water 2009:956). MSB is the agency responsible, and level and estimated inflow. conducts the work in close cooperation with the • The Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) has county administrative boards. The work includes been charged with proposing means of coordinatassessments of the impact of climate change on ing implementation of climate change adaptation the incidence of flooding. measures to reduce landslide risk in the Göta • In the energy sector, vulnerability to extreme älv valley. SGI is also to study possible ways weather events has been analysed, for example of coordinating adaptation efforts in the Lake with respect to how the safety of hydropower and Vänern region. tailings dams and the risk of flooding are affected by climate change. Since the storms of 2005 and Problems associated with adapting to climate change 2007, work to replace overhead power lines with are attracting ever greater attention in spatial planunderground cables for electricity distribution ning. This applies, for example, to the current planning has been intensified. work to boost the capacity for water release from Lake • Risks of landslides, washing-away and flooding in Mälaren in connection with the reconstruction of the road and rail networks have been surveyed Slussen in Stockholm. Here, expected climate change and measures taken where necessary. For the rail may result in flooding of large areas around Mälaren network, an extensive project of tree clearance is and parts of the inner city of Stockholm, making an also under way, with trees being felled to improve ability to regulate the flow of water increasingly safety in strong winds. necessary. • Knowledge of the effects of climate change and Most county administrative boards have drawn up scope for action is conveyed to forest owners and reports, analyses and other material concerning clifarmers (see section 9.4). mate change adaptation in their own regions. This in- • Since 2012, SMHI has been running the National formation is collected on each board’s website and Knowledge Centre for Climate Change Adapta- serves as a basis for the municipalities’ adaptation tion on the Government’s behalf. This is a resource efforts. To strengthen local and regional work, the for everyone in Sweden engaged in adapting Government has tasked county administrative boards society to climate change. The Centre compiles with preparing regional action plans for climate adapand disseminates knowledge, data to support de- tation by 30 June 2014. cisions and tools for climate change adaptation, Responsibility for practical adaptation to climate and is run jointly with other agencies and stake- change is usually located at local, municipal level. Muholders. One of the Centre’s tasks is managing the nicipalities are responsible for spatial and emergency Swedish Portal for Climate Change Adaptation, planning and the rescue services. They, too, are the comwww.klimatanpassning.se. This portal assembles missioning authorities for public utilities and other news of adaptation measures, information about technical services. Many municipalities in Sweden are how the climate is changing and what effects this working to apply measures to reduce their exposure is having, and may come to have, on various parts to both current and future climatic conditions. Since of society. May 2011 the new Planning and Building Act, which • MSB has been tasked by the Government, in co- superseded the previous Planning and Building Act operation with the agencies and organisations (1987:10) and the Act on Technical Requirements for concerned, with running a national platform for Construction Works etc. (1994:847), has been in force. work on natural disasters. The purpose is to en- Several provisions in the new Act were prompted by hance society’s ability to prevent and cope with climate problems. Municipal plans should play a key the adverse consequences of natural events, in role in climate change adaptation, and environmental line with Sweden’s commitments under the Hyogo and climate aspects must be considered in planning Declaration and Framework for Action. and in reviewing other types of applications.

6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures 95

For built-up areas where the risk of natural disasters is climate negotiations under the UN Framework particularly high, municipalities can apply for grants Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). from MSB for preventive measures. Here, the aim is • Sweden is active within the scope of the Hyogo to enhance their scope for adapting to the impacts of Framework for Action, which is intended to reduce climate change. the risks and repercussions of natural disasters. To date, concrete adaptations have been started, • SMHI and several other Swedish government above all, in areas hit by extreme weather events. The agencies are taking part both in research projects work has mainly involved measures in physical plan- and in joint agency efforts under the aegis of ning and building. Some municipalities carry out cli- several international projects aimed primarily mate and vulnerability assessments when they draw at drawing up documentation for vulnerability up new comprehensive plans. This kind of analysis assessments on which adaptation strategies can entails identifying facilities and functions of import- be based. ance to the community, transport and utility supply • The Rossby Centre, SMHI’s climate modelling infrastructure, environmentally hazardous activities unit, studies the processes and behaviour of the and contaminated land areas that may be in risk zones climate system. The Centre is active in a number for flooding, landslides and erosion. Outline propos- of international research projects, which are listed als for action are developed for vulnerable areas. Some on its website (SMHI 2013c). municipalities have also raised the minimum level for • A macroregional strategy has been drawn up in construction, built levees and invested in pump sys- the Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptatems to protect against flooding. Some, too, have modi- tion Strategy research project (Baltadapt 2013). fied water and sewerage systems to avoid the harmful • The CIRCLE-2 European network has three aims. effects of heavy downpours. First, it seeks to identify current research on cli- Sweden’s municipalities are obliged to carry out mate change adaptation, effects of climate change risk and vulnerability assessments as a basis for coping and the vulnerability of society. Second, it pinwith extraordinary events and crises under the Act on points issues where further research is required. municipal and county council measures prior to and Third, it aims to improve dissemination of existduring extraordinary events in peacetime and during ing research results, which is covered in the Share periods of heightened alert (2006:544). Analyses of subproject (CIRCLE-2 2013). risk and vulnerability cover events that will be affected • Taking part in Mistra-SWECIA (www.mistraby climate change. swecia.se), a major Swedish strategic environmental research programme on climate change, its impacts and economic implications, and adap-

6.5 International work tation, are SMHI, the Stockholm Environment

• In 2013, the European Commission presented a Institute, Stockholm University and Lund Uniproposal for an adaptation strategy for the EU. versity. How the work will be carried out in Sweden has

not yet been determined. 6.6 References for Chapter 6

• The European Environment Agency (EEA) and Act on municipal and county council measures prior European Commission jointly run the Clim ate- to and during extraordinary events in peacetime and Adapt portal (www.climate-adapt.eea.europa. during periods of heightened alert (SFS 2006:544). eu). Its purpose is to support Europe in its climate change adaptation and provide access to data Baltadapt (2013). Baltadapt Strategy for adaptation and information about expected climate change to climate change in the Baltic Sea Region, in Europe, vulnerability, strategies and activities, www.baltadapt.eu/index.php?option=com_content& case studies and possible adaptations, and also view=article&id=93:strategy&catid=40&Itemid=224, tools for simplifying planning. accessed 19 Sept. 2013. • In the Nordic region, collaboration is under way on the national web portals for climate adapta- Bergström, Sten (2012). Framtidens havsnivåer i ett tion and on the development of climate services. hundraårsperspektiv – kunskapssammanställning. • In the UN, climate change adaptation is being Klimatologi, 5. ISSN 1654-2258. Norrköping: SMHI. pursued partly through the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), CIRCLE-2 (2013). www.circle-era.eu/np4/home.html, and adaptation issues are also dealt with during accessed 19 Sept. 2013.

96 6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures

Government Bill 2011/12:1: The Budget Bill for 2012.

Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G., & Ullerstig, A. (2011). 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Tellus, 63A(1), 24–40. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600- 0870.2010.00475.x.

Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E., Hansson, U., Jones, C., Strandberg, G., & Ullerstig, A. (2011). Evaluation and Future Projections of Temperature, Precipitation and Wind Extremes over Europe in an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations. Tellus, 63A(1), 41–55. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00466.x.

Olsson, Jonas, & Foster, Kean (2013). Extrem korttidsnederbörd i klimatprojektioner för Sverige . Klimatologi, 6. ISSN 1654-2258. Norrköping: SMHI.

Rydell, Bengt, Nilsson, Carin, Alfredsson, Cecilia, & Lind, Erika (2010). Klimatanpassning i Sverige – en översikt. Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, Report MSB214, August 2010. ISBN 978-91-7383-107-9.

SMHI (2013a), Klimatanpassningsportalen, Roller och ansvar, www.klimatanpassning.se/Roller-och-ansvar/ myndigheters-aktiviteter-inom-klimatanpassningroller-och-ansvar-1.25837, accessed 18 Sept. 2013.

SMHI (2013b). Förändrad vattentillgång, www.smhi. se/klimatdata/klimatscenarier/klimatanalyser/forandrad-framtida-vattentillgang-1.22606, accessed 19 Sept. 2013.

SMHI (2013c), Forskningsprojekt på Rossby Centre, www.smhi.se/forskning/forskningsomraden/klimatforskning/forskningsprojekt-pa-rossby-centre-1.312, accessed 19 Sept. 2013.

SOU 2007:60: Sweden facing climate change – threats and opportunities (2007), final report from the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability.

6. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures 97

7 Financial resources and transfer of technology

7.1 Introduction 7.2 Governing policies and principles

Climate change is a pressing global challenge that

requires common action and a wide programme of 7.2.1 Sweden’s policy for global development

measures. Sweden has a long history of support for work The policy for global development was adopted by the on climate change issues in developing countries, in an Riksdag (the Swedish Parliament) in 2003. Its adoption array of sectors and on a long-term basis. A large number was preceded by the work of a parliamentary committee, of Swedish actors, such as ministries, government which was given a broad mandate to examine how such agencies, state-owned companies, non-governmental a policy should be designed. The committee concluded organisations, universities and the private sector, assist that Sweden’s contribution to global development and in climate change-related cooperative actions and poverty reduction could not be limited to developactivities such as technology development, research and ment cooperation alone. The overarching objective of various forms of capacity development. A number of the policy for global development – to contribute to different modes of cooperation, policy instruments and achieving equitable and sustainable global developforms of support exist. Climate finance is provided ment – therefore applies to all policy areas. Two perfrom both public and private sources. spectives permeate all parts of the policy: a rights Tackling climate change in poor countries is, from a perspective, based on international human rights Swedish perspective, closely linked to poverty reduc- conventions, and the perspectives of the poor. tion and attaining development objectives such as the In 2008 a new Government Communication on Swe- Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In this den’s Policy for Global Development was submitted to context, enhancing synergies between the objectives of the Riksdag. 1 In it, the Government identified key chaladaptation, mitigation and poverty reduction is pivotal. lenges in attaining equitable and sustainable global de- Climate change has the greatest impact on people in velopment, where Sweden is in a position to make an poverty, people whose resilience to changes in the effective contribution. Climate change and environclimate is very weak. On the basis of principles such as mental impact were one of the six key challenges ownership, harmonisation and alignment to a country’s identified. systems and processes, Sweden is working towards

integrating climate change considerations on a broad 7.2.2 Policy for environmental and climate basis, for instance in sectors such as energy, water and issues in development cooperation

sanitation, agriculture and forestry, food security, In 2010 the Swedish Government adopted a specific infrastructure, health and education. policy for environmental and climate issues in develop- It is important to further develop and scale up differ- ment cooperation. 2 This policy establishes fundamental ent tools and financial instruments to address the principles and sets out the Government’s general posiadverse effects of climate change, and not least its tion regarding environmental and climate issues withimpacts on low-income countries. Climate finance, in development cooperation. The overarching objecfrom different sources – public and private – is crucial tive is to achieve a better environment, sustainable use in achieving climate-resilient and low-carbon develop- of natural resources, stronger resilience to environmenment. tal impact and climate change in developing coun- 1 Govt. Communication 2007/08:89, cf. www.government.se/sb/d/574/a/113283. 2 www.government.se/sb/d/574/a/156498.

98 7. Financial resources and transfer of technology

tries, and limited climate impact. Under the policy, Table 7.1 Total Swedish official development assistance in Sweden is to focus its efforts on the following areas in SEK million and US$ million, 2009–2012 particular: 2009 2010 2011 2012 SEK million 34 713 32 602 36 380 35 483 • Strengthened institutional capacity in public US$ million 4 548 4 527 5 606 5 242 administration • Improved food security and sustainable use of ecosystem services

• Improved water resources management, greater 7.3 The Swedish Government’s Special access to safe water and basic sanitation Climate Change Initiative

• Increased access to sustainable energy sources • Sustainable urban development In 2008 the Swedish Government launched a Special Climate Change Initiative for the period 2009–12, The policy establishes that environmental and climate providing a total of SEK 4 billion for multilateral and aspects are a central basis for all development cooper- bilateral climate change initiatives within the frameation, and that cooperation is to be based on partner work of development cooperation. countries’ own plans and strategies. Around two-thirds of funding for the Climate Change Initiative, SEK 2.9 bn, was channelled through

7.2.3 Paris Declaration, Accra Agenda and multilateral organisations by the Ministry for Foreign Busan Partnership Affairs. These efforts focused on both mitigation and

The principles contained in the Paris Declaration of adaptation, and the money was disbursed to multilat- 2005, the Accra Agenda of 2008 and the Busan Partner- eral climate funds and initiatives such as the Adaptaship of 2011 are of key significance to Swedish develop- tion Fund, the Least Developed Countries Fund ment cooperation. National ownership is key to secur- (LDCF), the Climate Investment Funds and the United ing long-term sustainability of climate change-related Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR). initiatives, and external actors should seek to improve Around a third of the funding, SEK 1.15bn, was coordination and alignment to the national systems/ channelled through the Swedish International Develprocesses of developing countries, so as to ensure trans- opment Cooperation Agency (Sida) to bilateral and parency and mutual accountability. regional initiatives. Here, the focus was on adaptation measures and on the existing partner countries Burkina

7.2.4 New and additional financial resources Faso, Mali, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Bolivia, which

According to the UN Framework Convention on Cli- are exposed to a high climate risk combined with high mate Change, ‘The developed country Parties /… / shall vulnerability. In addition, support was provided for provide new and additional financial resources to regional cooperation in Africa and Asia. The total meet the agreed full costs incurred by developing funding outcome for the period 2009–12 was SEK country Parties in complying with their obligations’. 1.12bn, and the remaining amounts were disbursed ‘New and additional resources’ is a term used in many during 2013. multilateral contexts. There is currently no interna- The Climate Change Initiative formed part of Sweden’s tional agreement on how it should be defined. One contribution to ‘fast-start finance’, a collective commitcommon definition, supported by many countries, is ment made by developed countries at COP 15 in that climate financing should be additional to the inter- Copen hagen in 2009. The total Swedish fast-start national development aid goal of 0.7% of gross national contri bution amounted to more than SEK 8bn for income (GNI). Since Sweden’s development coopera- 2010–12, making Sweden one of the largest per capita tion has for many years exceeded the 0.7% target (with contributors by far to the fast-start finance initiative. funding of 1% of GNI), all climate finance provided by Sweden could be viewed as new and additional. Figures for total Swedish ODA are shown in Table 7.1. All exchange rates used in this report are based on the annual average dollar exchange rates for OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) members. For Sweden, this means US$ 1 = SEK 7.6322 (2009), SEK 7.2022 (2010), SEK 6.4892 (2011) and SEK 6.7689 (2012).

7. Financial resources and transfer of technology 99

to irrigation and new crops. Diversification of production has

Examples of contributions under the Special Climate

also increased household incomes.

Change Initiative:

– In Mali, support to the International Union for Conservation of – The Adaptation Fund finances projects and programmes to Nature has reinforced the restoration and sustainable manhelp developing countries adapt to the adverse effects of cliagement of natural resources in nine municipalities in the inmate change. Sweden is one of the largest donors and the only ner delta of the Niger River. The project has increased produccountry to have contributed an annual US$ 100m since the tive land areas, constructed a database on the hydrological fund became operational in 2010. system, and improved women’s and communities’ capacities – The LDCF was established to address the special needs of least to adapt to climate change, including through awareness credeveloped countries by financing the preparation and impleation, tree planting and income diversification. mentation of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NA-

PAs). Sweden is one of the largest donor countries to the fund.

– Support to Mangroves for the Future in several countries in

South-East Asia has contributed to the rehabilitation of large

areas of mangrove forest. It has also helped to raise awareness

about the importance of mangroves and led to improved coastal

zone management involving local fishing communities. 7.4 Multilateral financial support

– Support to the Water Reservoir Programme in Burkina Faso has

Nearly half of Swedish development cooperation is

reduced the vulnerability of small dams affected by climate

allocated to international multilateral development

change. The programme has contributed to improved food se-

bodies and funds.

curity for more than1,000 people living in poverty by securing

24 million cubic metres of water for food production. Irrigated Sweden contributes significant amounts of core fundplots have been distributed and production of vegetables for ing and is actively engaged in a number of other multhe local market has started. A guide for climate integration in tilateral specialised bodies, international and regional

the construction of dams has also been produced, and aware-

organisations, banks and institutes, with a view to in-

ness among different stakeholders has been raised.

fluencing their climate change work in various sectors.

– Support to the African Union has contributed to the estab-

Table 7.2 below outlines examples of Swedish contri-

lishment of African Risk Capacity, a specialised agency for

sovereign disaster risk solutions. It is a first step towards butions to multilateral institutions and programmes. establishing an innovative African insurance solution for nat- The table presents total contributions, of which a share ural disasters and weather events, which aims to improve food is devoted to climate change activities. For example,

security in Africa and decrease dependence on international

within the World Bank’s International Development

humanitarian assistance.

Association (IDA), an estimated 16% of the budget is

– Support to Programa de Desarrollo Agropecuario Sustentable

used for projects with climate change mitigation and

in Bolivia has increased farmers’ resilience to climate change

through soil conservation, more efficient use of water, access adaptation co-benefits.

Table 7.2 Examples of financial contributions to multilateral institutions and programmes (1)

2009 2010 2011 2012

SEK m US$ m SEK m US$ m SEK m US$ m SEK m US$ m

Corporation

Reconstruction and Development Inter-American 100 13 0 0 11 2 10 2 Development Bank United Nations 1 928 253 1 681 233 1 808 279 2 076 307 Development Programme United Nations 113 15 81 11 83 13 99 15 Environment Programme (1) Note that some elements of the climate-related contributions are also reported more specifically in bilateral reporting.

100 7. Financial resources and transfer of technology

Sweden provides climate-specific official development Furthermore, Sweden contributed a total of SEK assistance to the financial mechanism of the UN Frame- 870m to the World Bank’s Climate Investment Funds work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), as (CIFs): SEK 600m to the Clean Technology Fund (CTF), well as through a variety of other multilateral financ- SEK 170m to the Scaling Up Renewable Energy Proing channels. gramme (SREP) and SEK 100m to the Forest Invest- The Global Environment Facility (GEF) is the financial ment Programme (FIP). The CIFs are designed to help mechanism for a number of important environmental developing countries pilot low-carbon and climateconventions, including the UNFCCC. Table 7.3 shows resilient development, and are thus involved in both Sweden’s payments to the GEF Trust Fund for the mitigation and adaptation projects. period 2009–12. For the fifth GEF replenishment Other non-conventional channels used in the area of (2010), Sweden contributed a total of SEK 1,045m. mitigation (in 2012) have been the World Bank’s Part- About 30% of total GEF funding is allocated to climate- nership for Market Readiness, providing finance and related projects. technical assistance for capacity building and piloting of market-based tools for GHG emissions reductions, Table 7.3 Financial contributions to the Global Environment together with the Climate and Clean Air Coalition Facility (GEF) (CCAC) and its programme on short-lived climate pol- 2009 2010 2011 2012 lutants. These pollutants, which include methane, are US$ million 30.6 47 39.3 30.2 short-lived in the atmosphere compared with carbon dioxide, yet responsible for a substantial share of cur- In addition, the Swedish Government contributes to a rent global warming. number of programmes and funds outlined in Table Disaster risk reduction is a key component of climate 7.4. Several of these were also covered by the Gov- adaptation, as it aims to reduce the damage caused by ernment’s Special Climate Change Initiative 2009– natural hazards such as floods, droughts and cyclones. 12. During this period, approximately US$ 3bn was A total of SEK 195m has been allocated through channels channelled through multilateral initiatives designed focusing on disaster risk management and resilience, to support adaptation and mitigation in devel oping such as the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk countries. Reduction (UNISDR) and the Global Facility for Disaster Sweden contributed SEK 380m to the Least Devel- Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). o ped Countries Fund (LDCF), for example, with a focus Other areas strongly linked to climate adaptation are on adaptation to climate change. Swedish development agriculture and food security. Sweden therefore attaches cooperation has long emphasised the importance of di- great importance to cooperation with international recting official development assistance to least devel- research bodies such as the Consultative Group on oped countries. Sweden believes that climate-related International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), to which support to these countries should focus in particular SEK 150m was disbursed. Support is also given to the on adaptation to climate change and risk reduction and International Fund for Agricultural Development consequently on reducing poor people’s vulnerability. (IFAD)’s Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Pro- Sweden, furthermore, was the only country that contri- gramme (ASAP), a programme helping smallholder buted to the Adaptation Fund yearly from 2010 to farmers to increase their resilience. 2012, providing an annual sum of SEK 100m. The focus Sweden also provides assistance to the core budget of of that fund on adaptation activities, in combination the UNFCCC according to the agreed UN scale, with with national ownership by developing countries, has an additional charge for the Kyoto Protocol. Voluntary been a strong argument for continuing Swedish support. contributions are in addition made to the Trust Funds The establishment of a Green Climate Fund (GCF) for Participation and Supplementary Activities. was agreed upon at the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in 2009. The GCF, which is still under development, is expected to become a central actor in the future climate finance architecture. Sweden has been an active member of the GCF Board and considers it of pivotal importance that the fund’s structure becomes effective and efficient, with a focus on results and transparency. In 2012 Sweden provided support for the start-up process of the GCF amounting to SEK 5m, allocated to administrative costs.

7. Financial resources and transfer of technology 101

Table 7.4 Financial contributions to multilateral climate institutions

2009 2010 2011 2012

SEK m US$ m SEK m US$ m SEK m US$ m SEK m US$ m

(LDCF)

Programme (SREP) IFAD – Adaptation for Smallholder 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 4.4 Agriculture Programme (ASAP) Partnership for Market Readiness 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 7.4 (PMR) World Bank – IDA 15 520 68.1 0 0 185 28.5 0 0 Consultative Group on International 50 6.6 50 6.9 50 7.7 0 0 Agricultural Research (CGIAR) United Nations Office for Disaster 25 3.2 5 0.7 0 0 7.5 1.1 Risk Reduction (UNISDR) World Food Programme (WFP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 44 6.5 Sustainable Energy for All 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 3.0 (SE4ALL) UNDP – Bureau for Crisis 15 2 0 0 0 0 23.5 3.5 Prevention and Recovery Global Facility for Disaster Risk 0 0 35 5 40 6.2 0 0 Reduction UNEP – Climate and Clean Air 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 1.5 Coalition

Roughly half of Swedish development cooperation is development assistance channelled through Sida for the channelled to developing countries and countries with period 2009–12. Tracking has been performed through economies in transition as bilateral ODA through Sida. follow-up of the specific budget allocation for the In the area of climate change, Sida supports specific Special Climate Change Initiative, and using the ‘Rio climate change contributions as well as integration at markers’ on climate change mitigation and adaptation. sector level, transfer of technology, capacity building These markers have been developed and defined and research cooperation, and in doing so collaborates within the OECD DAC (new methodology since the with many government institutions in developing previous National Communication), and are commoncountries, non-governmental organisations, Swedish ly used by many donor countries to track public cliauthorities and municipalities, the private sector, mate finance. Each component is marked on a scale of research institutions etc. ODA channelled through 0–2 by the officer responsible for the contribution, Sida (including ‘multi-bi’ support 5 ) is disbursed at the where 2 represents ‘primary objective’, 1 ‘significant national, regional and global levels. objective’ and 0 ‘not targeted’. In compiling the figures In bilateral development cooperation, Sweden’s con- presented in Table 7.5 and Annex 6, Sweden has intributions are based on a strategy that takes the devel- cluded 100% of the funding for contributions under oping country’s own strategic priorities and poverty re- the Special Climate Change Initiative and for other duction strategy as a point of departure. Local owner- contributions which have mitigation and/or adaptaship is key to ensuring the sustainability of support. tion as a ‘primary objective’, but only 50% of the fund- 3 The table includes 30% of the total Swedish contribution to the GEF, since 30% of 5 Bilateral support handled by multilateral organisations. GEF funding is allocated to climate-related projects, and SEK 100m which was part of the Special Climate Change Initiative. 4 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation. 102 7. Financial resources and transfer of technology

ing for contributions with mitigation and/or adapta- most vulnerable to and suffer most from the impact of tion as a ‘significant objective’. The figures presented climate change. Civil society organisations also have an represent net support provided, i.e. disbursed accord- important role to play when it comes to awareness ing to OECD terminology. raising and advocacy regarding climate change. Financial support from Sida is channelled through a number Table 7.5 Summary of bilateral/regional/global climate of Swedish organisations, such as the Swedish Society finance channelled through Sida to non-Annex I countries for Nature Conservation, PLAN Sweden, Forum Syd

and economies in transition

and the Swedish Cooperative Centre, as well as being

(US$ m) Mitigation Adaptation Cross-cutting Total

allocated directly to key organisations in developing

Sida has supported the Joint Climate Change Initiative of Capacity Development of Cambodian non-governmental organ- Annex 6 shows this financial support further broken isations, implemented by Forum Syd and other partners. More down by country/region/global for the period 2009– than 20 local NGOs have increased their capacity and know- 12. Only countries/regions where cooperation took ledge relating to climate change and disaster risk reduction. place in a given year are included, and the list there- Awareness has increased and climate aspects have now been fore varies from one year to another. For increased integrated in the strategic plans and programmes of the NGOs. Women have been key actors in many of the pilot projects, e.g. transparency, negative figures are also included; these in cooperating with local authorities to develop disaster manrepresent repayments of unspent funds, e.g. when unagement plans, integrating adaptation in local investment rest in an area has delayed or prevented implementaplans, and improving livelihoods through climate-resilient fish tion of a project or programme, or a project/programme farming and vegetable cultivation. has performed more cost-effectively than budgeted. Sida has also provided support for the Asia Pacific Forum on Sectors are reported according to the OECD DAC Women, Law and Development, a member-based organisation focusing on women’s rights and gender equality. Under its Cli- Creditor Reporting System (CRS) classification. Immate Justice programme, the Forum has, for example, conducportant sectors for mitigation are, for example, energy ted research projects documenting climate-related impacts on and multisector, such as environmental policy and ad- rural women’s rights and livelihoods. The results were presented ministrative management. Interventions to improve at COP 17, with rural and indigenous women from Asia Pacific climate change adaptation also include a great deal of taking part as official delegates of the gender constituency. In capacity building relating to environmental policy and 2012 the UNFCCC passed a decision recognising the need for gender balance to improve the participation of women. administrative management, but in addition focus strongly on sectors such as water and sanitation, and agriculture. Most contributions, however, create syner- Sida also supports global non-governmental organisagies and/or have cross-cutting benefits for both mitiga- tions and think tanks that are very important actors at tion and adaptation, particularly under the agriculture the global, regional and national/local levels. Organisaand multisector headings; these are therefore reported tions such as the Stockholm Environment Institute, separately in Table 7.5 and Annex 6. The individual the International Institute for Environment and Develcountries that have received the largest share of cli- opment and the World Resources Institute all receive mate change-related development cooperation include core support from Sida and play an active role in Mozambique, Kenya, Mali, Bolivia and Tanzania, coun- normative efforts, as well as in global policy research, tries that were in focus under the Government’s Spe- pertaining to climate change. cial Climate Change Initiative and/or where Sweden has been engaged in development cooperation for The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) is an independent many years, especially in key sectors such as energy and international research institute. It conducts research, develops water/sanitation. tools, and builds capacity. Its work on climate change supports the design, development and implementation of effective and equitable strategies for adaptation and mitigation in developing

7.5.1 Support through non-governmental and developed countries. It offers timely, authoritative and perorganisations tinent analysis that informs policymakers and negotiators, fi-

nance institutions, civil society, the private sector, and other Cooperation with civil society in the area of climate stakeholders involved in the UNFCCC process. SEI explores both change is important, as these actors often focus on the synergies and potential competition between climate policy and local level and work directly with the people who are development. This is reflected in its work on climate governance

7. Financial resources and transfer of technology 103

and finance, climate economics, carbon markets, equity, bio- swana and South Africa, Sida prioritises what is termed energy, energy efficiency, and vulnerability and adaptation. ‘partner-driven cooperation’, which is often undertaken in close cooperation with the private sector. The

7.5.2 Support through Swedish authorities to purpose is to establish sustainable relationships of institutions in developing countries mutual interest between Swedish and foreign actors.

Sweden channels funding through several Swedish au- Effectively, this means that an actor in Sweden and an thorities and universities to enable them to run pro- actor in the partner country initiate a partnership grammes and project activities in developing countries, that falls within the framework of the strategic goals focusing on their areas of expertise. Key authorities in- set for the country. Several of the initiatives focus on volved in capacity building relating to climate change climate change issues. are, for example, the Swedish Environmental Protec- In 2009, Sweden introduced an Ordinance on the tion Agency and the Swedish Meteorological and Financing of Development Loans and Guarantees for Hydrological Institute. Development Cooperation, and for the period 2009– 13 the Swedish Government has a strategy with a special focus on environmental loans. Sida provides a The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency manages grant as a complement to a loan facility. Market- Sweden’s contribution to the Nordic Partnership Initiative on financed loans are structured and issued by banks or Up-scaled Mitigation Action. This is an initiative that aims to (i) build capacity in Peru and Vietnam to enable them to structure multinational financial institutions. The environmental and implement ‘Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions’ (NA- loans provided are primarily aimed at improved energy MAs) in the waste and cement sectors, respectively; (ii) explore efficiency and renewable energy, management of water, ways to attract national and international climate finance; (iii) sewage and waste, and transportation – all highly releprovide an input of lessons learnt to the international climate vant from a climate change perspective. The loans can negotiations; and (iv) encourage other parties to take similar actions. The initiative was launched in 2011 and the two be stand-alone or combined with a guarantee arrangeprogrammes will continue until 2015. ment, in order to play a catalytic role. More informa- The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, tion on mobilised private climate finance is provided together with other partners, has implemented an international in Sweden’s first Biennial Report. training programme focused on climate change mitigation and Most cooperation with the private sector includes adaptation. About 450 participants (36% of them women) from an element of technology transfer. Examples are given 53 countries have been trained and provided with tools to identify vulnerable sectors in their countries and to develop projects in Table 7.7. there with support from the organisers. The target group has been individuals in leading positions in administration, national or local, NGOs, universities or companies. Evaluations show

7.6 Technology development and diffusion

that participants rate the course highly and that the training has greatly increased their understanding of climate change. A large majority of the participants also thought that the content was of great significance to their ongoing work, and a number of In September 2011 the Swedish Government launched important contacts with various experts were established. a national environmental technology strategy. Its aim is to facilitate the development of new, sustainable Swedish solutions to meet the challenges of climate change and environmental degradation, while promot-

7.5.3 Cooperation with the private sector

ing new business and employment. Short- and long- The dominant global capital flows are private, and to term initiatives – targeting everything from research be able to manage climate change it is of the utmost and innovation to exports – aim to make Sweden a importance to link these flows to both mitigation and green-tech pioneer. The Government has decided to adaptation efforts. invest SEK 400m in environmental technology over Sida cooperates with the private sector through its the period 2011–14. ‘Innovations Against Poverty’ programme, which is de- The environmental technology strategy outlines signed for companies that are based or operate in a measures to promote the Swedish environmental techpoor country. The programme functions as a risk- nology sector. These include steps to intensify research sharing mechanism for sustainable business ventures and innovation, initiatives aimed at facilitating financ- (commercial companies or market-oriented organisa- ing and business development at an early commercial tions) which have a strong potential to reduce poverty. stage, support and assistance with market analysis and Many of the projects focus on climate-smart solutions. start-ups in export markets for small and medium- In Indonesia, India, China, Vietnam, Namibia, Bot- sized businesses, and measures to improve coordina-

104 7. Financial resources and transfer of technology

tion among government agencies and other actors of international development cooperation by helping to relevance to development in the environment sector. enable people living in poverty to improve their lives To implement the strategy, a number of government and, within the context of Sweden’s reform cooperaagencies have been tasked with facilitating and im- tion in Eastern Europe, bringing about strengthened proving conditions for the Swedish environmental democracy, equitable and sustainable development, technology sector to grow. They include the Swedish and alignment with the European Union and its core Energy Agency, the Swedish Agency for Economic and values. Swedfund seeks to establish sustainable and Regional Growth and the Swedish Trade and Invest profitable companies in these markets with a view to Council (semi-governmental). The Swedish Trade and contributing to poverty reduction. An important part Invest Council is working to facilitate exports by of its work is ensuring and maintaining excellence Swedish companies, in areas such as waste manage- with respect to the environmental and social aspects ment, recycling, bioenergy, solar power, wind power of investments. Since 2009, Swedfund has adminisand energy efficiency. tered Swedpartnership (previously StartSyd and The Government has signed cooperation agreements StartÖst). Swedpartnership offers small and mid-sized on environmental or energy technology with a number enterprises financial support for investments in of countries, among them the United States, Brazil, knowledge transfer and equipment when they are China, Russia and India. In 2011, the Government ap- establishing new businesses in developing countries in pointed a special coordinator to be responsible for the Africa, Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. coordination and development of bilateral coopera- From a development point of view, the issue of techtion with China, Russia and India in the field of envir- nology is more than the physical transfer of hardware onmental and energy technologies, including sustain- or software; it is more a matter of building capacity in able urban planning. As an example, cooperation be- developing countries to receive, use and develop techtween Sweden and India in the energy sector today nology. Development cooperation has an important includes energy efficiency and renewable energy, role to play in this context, and Sweden undertakes mainly biogas. Bilateral technological cooperation technology and research cooperation with significant with China, focused on sustainable urban develop- elements of capacity development with a number of ment, has been in progress since April 2008. partner countries. This integrated approach is crucial In 2011 the environmental sector exported goods if developing countries are to benefit from, and themand services adding up to SEK 38.9bn, which cor- selves contribute to, the development of sustainable responds to 2.2% of Sweden’s total exports (see Table technological solutions adapted to their specific cir- 7.6). cumstances. It does, however, make it challenging to track and distinguish specific technology transfer and/ or capacity-building contributions. Table 7.6 Environmental sector exports, 2009–2011,

SEK billion

Table 7.7 Examples of support involving environmental

2009 2010 2011

technology transfer

Exports (SEK billion) 39.6 36.8 38.9

Project/programme title: Solar Home Systems

The largest individual sector was waste management Purpose: Rural electrification through renewable energy. and recycling, but many of the current environmental Recipient Sector: Sida funding: Years in

country: operation:

technology solutions, such as district heating, biogas, Bangladesh Energy SEK 65m 2009–2018 underground waste collection, geothermal heating and

Description: Solar Home Systems is a renewable energy programme

geothermal cooling, have existed on a large scale in that provides people in rural Bangladesh with clean electricity from Sweden for many years. solar panels. The programme is designed to build a commercially viable system, but subsidies targeted at people living in poverty aim Sweden considers the private sector to have an imto make the initial investment possible. At least 1.2 million Solar portant part to play in technology development and Home Systems have been installed, improving the quality of life of diffusion. However, to create the necessary conditions millions of rural inhabitants. The programme has also improved the productivity and profitability of local businesses. It is operated by for it to become involved in developing countries, sup- the World Bank, but financed by several partners (including local port is often required to reduce the risk, and for this micro-finance organisations), and implemented by local companies in partnerships with local NGOs and partner organisations. purpose loans and guarantees or risk credit can be

Indicate factors which led to project’s success:

used (see 7.5.3 and below). Innovative financing and local partnerships. Through Swedfund, Sweden’s development finance Technology transferred: Solar panels. institution, Sweden invests in growth companies in developing countries. Swedfund aims to contribute to

7. Financial resources and transfer of technology 105

Project/programme title: Innovations Against Poverty/Waste 2 Energy

In Cambodia, Sida has teamed up with the EU, Danida and

Purpose: Gas produced from waste will provide low-income commu-

UNDP in a multi-donor initiative to support the Cambodia Climate nities with an alternative, renewable source of fuel. Change Alliance, a comprehensive approach seeking to syste m-

Recipient Sector: Sida funding: Years in

atically address climate change and disaster risk challenges.

country: operation:

The overall objective is to strengthen the capacity of the Uganda Energy € 20,000 2012–2013 Nation al Climate Change Committee (a Government-mandated

Description: coordinating and policy support entity for all aspects of climate Waste 2 Energy Ltd.’s aim is to develop commercial production of change) to fulfil its mandate to address climate change and to biogas from municipal waste collected in a densely populated urban enable line ministries and civil society to implement priority centre in Kampala. The gas will be conventionally purified and pressurised to provide a safe, affordable and renewable energy source for climate change actions. The main achievements to date are: poor households. Sorted organic waste will be converted and purified the development of a Cambodia Climate Change Strategic Plan into biogas. Subsequently the biogas will be marketed and sold at (providing the basis for Cambodia’s National Adaptation Plan); a price 20–30% lower than competing products. The gas will reach potential customers through a distribution network. improved coordination with key line ministries in sectoral climate change plans; approval of 19 government and NGO projects;

Indicate factors which led to project’s success:

Innovative financing and market demand. establishment of a Trust Fund; strengthening of Cambodia’s negotiating capacity on climate change matters at the national

Technology transferred: Biogas technology.

and international levels; establishment of a web-based climate Project/programme title: Comprehensive Disaster Management change knowledge and information platform; and completion of Programme (CDMP). a climate change public expenditure and institutional review, Purpose: Reduce people’s vulnerability to natural disasters. aimed at strengthening governance and delivery of climate finance in line with monitoring, review and verification requirements.

Recipient Sector: Sida funding: Years in country: operation:

Bangladesh Multisector/ SEK 50m 2009–2014 Communication Capacity development is primarily an integral part of

Description: CDMP has helped to reduce people’s vulnerability to the programmes and projects which Sida supports. natural disasters, including adverse effects of climate change. This integrated approach is of key significance, as ca- The programme has worked at many different levels to strengthen the legal framework for disaster management, build capacity and pacity cannot develop in a vacuum and is always linked

strengthen coordination between various ministries, agencies etc. to the relevant activity. It is important to ask: ‘Capac- It has also, among other things, contributed to an improved national early warning system for weather-related disasters. Through the ity for what?’ Sweden considers it important to take a

use of mobile phones and the mobilisation of tens of thousands of broader view of capacity development in training and volunteers, more than 50 million people can now be reached by the early warning system. research, but also to raise capacity institutionally

Indicate factors which led to project’s success: through various forms of support to cooperation with

Programmatic approach and local ownership. national and local institutions. In addition, Sweden

Technology transferred: Information and communications technology. regards it as crucial to contribute to building capacity

among developing countries’ climate change negoti-

ators, in order to create a level playing field and facili-

tate mutual understanding.

7.7 Capacity building

Capacity development is a critical factor in enabling Sida contributes funding towards the European Capacity Building Initiative (ecbi) for sustained capacity building in support of developing countries to tackle climate change. Sweden international climate change negotiations. The ecbi aims to considers capacity building a cross-cutting issue, since promote a more level playing field between government delegacapacity is required for developing countries to be tions to the negotiations, and to facilitate mutual understanding able to receive financial and technology-related sup- and trust both between European and developing countries and

port for adaptation and mitigation, and to ensure that among developing countries. Through trust-building seminars, such support is sustainable. National expertise and regional training workshops, policy reports, bursaries for LDC negotiators from Africa and Asia, a website for awareness creation, know-how on climate change and its effects are crucial, mentoring and encouragement, ecbi has created an environment as is strengthening of institutions so that countries for negotiators that is conducive to honest and open discussions themselves are able to integrate climate change into on climate change issues. Almost 700 negotiators have particitheir long-term planning processes and pursue their pated in its activities, giving them new skills, knowledge and

own national climate change policies. Sweden has confidence to play a more effective role in the climate change found that the best results are achieved when capacity negotiations. The initiative is having a direct impact on the negotiations. development is based on countries’ own needs and

priorities, is owned and operated nationally, and takes

place in partnership as a joint learning process. It is Sida’s research cooperation aims to strengthen the re-

therefore important to strengthen national systems search capacity of partner countries and to promote

instead of creating new ones. development-oriented research. This includes support

106 7. Financial resources and transfer of technology

7.8 References for Chapter 7

that will help cooperating countries to establish en abling research environments and training of research Ministry for Foreign Affairs (2008). Govt. Comm. scientists and to develop methods to plan and priori- 2007/08:89 Communication on Sweden’s policy for tise research. Promoting development-oriented reglobal development. search means supporting, both financially and scientifically, opportunities for partner countries to identify new knowledge in areas of significance for their development. The cooperation pursued in natural science and technology, natural resources and the environment is relevant from the point of view of climate change. In addition, a contribution is made to capacity building, for instance through support for the build-up of universities and research councils in developing countries.

The Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association is a regional organisation promoting the educational, scientific and technological development of all aspects of marine sciences, with a view to sustaining the use and conservation of marine resources. As a result of Sida’s support to WIOMSA, knowledge about the consequences of climate change for coral reefs and mangroves has been enhanced; climate change has become a priority on the regional agenda for sustainable management of marine and coastal natural resources in the Indian Ocean; a dialogue has been established between researchers and decision makers regarding marine and coastal environments; and new models have increased the capacity to predict climate change among researchers and decision makers concerned with marine and coastal environments in East and Southern Africa.

Sweden often promotes capacity building by engaging with local partners in developing countries, but sometimes also uses combined studies at home and abroad for key groups such as civil servants, researchers, students etc. These approaches have proved successful in enabling course participants to remain in their countries on completing their education, thereby avoiding the capacity being lost through a ‘brain drain’.

7. Financial resources and transfer of technology 107

8 Research and systematic observation

8.1.2 Forthcoming initiatives

8.1 Climate research policy

The Government’s latest bill, Research and Innova- The Swedish Government’s overall ambitions for tion (Govt. Bill 2012/13:30), applying to 2013–16, research and development, expressed in its two most contains long-term initiatives in cutting-edge rerecent research policy bills, are to strengthen Sweden’s search, a larger volume of basic resources for higher long-term competitiveness and promote sustainable education institutions (HEIs), and major investments growth. Human impact on climate is seen as one of the in life sciences and in energy systems that are susmajor challenges to humankind that cannot be ad- tainable in the long term. Research initiatives are dressed successfully without new knowledge. The considered the key to Sweden remaining successful climate issue and preserving biodiversity, the marine in the lifetimes of future generations. Ways to achieve environment and a non-toxic environment are the this are thought to include increased dissemination 1 Government’s top environmental priorities during the of research-based knowledge and open access . Research period under review. findings are intended to result in new products and services through focused investments in a few areas

8.1.1 New forms of support of particular importance to the business sector and

New forms of support for strong research environ- society. The following initiatives are especially idenments at higher education institutions (‘Linnaeus tified: first, research on forest raw materials and bio- Grants’) were set up by the Government in 2004. These mass – new materials and biobased products for a were extended in the Research Policy Bill, A Boost to biobased economy – and, second, research on sustain- Research and Innovation (Govt. Bill 2008/09:50), for able urban development. The climate is the subject the Sixth National Communication (NC6) reporting of a separate initiative launched in the 2008 Bill. period, 2009–12. Besides support for strong research

environments, the Government identified 24 strategic 8.1.3 Research infrastructure

research areas, including climate models, effects on One important factor in paving the way for outstandnatural resources, ecosystem services and biodiversity, ing research is research infrastructure, such as the and research on the marine environment. These should European Spallation Source, the MAX synchrotron, cenbe juxtaposed with the themes pinpointed earlier – tral or distributed research facilities, databases, bioclimate and energy, management of natural resources banks or large-scale resources for calculation, analysis and the environment, urban and rural development, and modelling as instruments for research. The Swedish environmental technology and new materials, and hu- Research Council performs the task of funding national man and environmental quality of life – which are all research infrastructure (such as Environment Climate central to sustainable development. Land use in a Data Sweden, ECDS) and Sweden’s participation in national and global perspective was added late in the international infrastructure. HEIs are responsible for period, and there is now a strategy for research and local infrastructure, such as LifeWatch, and equipment. development for a biobased economy. Objectives in- LifeWatch is an EU project that is expected to provide clude reducing both climate impact and use of fossil data on changes in biodiversity and should thereby be raw materials. able to contribute to knowledge of the impacts of a 1 Open access is a model for publishing academic information online free of charge to readers.

108 8. Research and systematic observation

changed climate, in particular. The Swedish Species cluded responsibility for Abisko Scientific Research Infor mation Centre at the Swedish University of Agri- Station. The Secretariat was already, and remains, in cultural Sciences is the coordinator in Sweden. The charge of expedi tions and research activities in the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) is a Arctic and Antarctic. new European research infrastructure for studies of The Rossby Centre at the Swedish Meteorological greenhouse gases in Europe and surrounding regions. and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) is continuing to One aim of ICOS Sweden, which is headed by Lund provide climate scenarios for other researchers and University, is to collect information about the coun- society at large, in the EU and international organtry’s total greenhouse gas budget. The project will isations like the World Climate Research Programme strengthen Swedish research related to greenhouse gases. (WCRP), as well as in Sweden. Ways and means of In Sweden, there are to be six field sites to measure gaining access to a new ocean-going research vessel are exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere (see being explored. This would permit high-quality re- Fig. 8.1). The results will form the basis for work on the search and survey in the area of marine environment environment and climate at national and regional level. and enable Sweden to meet its commitments towards the EU and under international conventions. This will be an important instrument in research on acidifi-

ICOS Sweden cation of the seas and oceans.

One example of infrastructure shared by public agencies is a joint archive for satellite data that stores information about vegetation and terrain variables. Coordination of geodata, including a newly created height data base, may have a major bearing on forthcoming work on the second commitment phase of the Kyoto Protocol in which, for example, rewetting of wetlands is under discussion. A new National Knowledge Centre for Climate Change Adaptation has been established at SMHI and its remit includes reformulating research results for decision support by 2015.

8.2 Nordic collaboration

The Top-Level Research Initiative launched by the Nordic prime ministers in 2007, focusing on cuttingedge research in the areas of climate, energy and environ ment, is now in its final phase. Sweden is taking Atmospheric station part in several of the projects through, for example, Ecosystem station Linköping University, the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and Chalmers University of Technology, in the framework of NORD-STAR (the Nordic Centre Figure 8.1. ICOS Sweden field sites are located in areas of of Excellence for Strategic Adaptation Research) and permafrost (Stordalen), wetland (Degerö), forests of varying NORDCLAD-net (the Nordic Climate Change Adapage and productivity (Flakaliden, Norunda and Perstorp), tation Research Network). The projects are being and arable land (Lanna). Three of these are also atmospheric coord inated by SEI, which arranged the 2010 and 2012 stations. Nordic Adaptation conferences, each of which had more than 150 delegates. Platforms for climate research that have long been esta- Swedish researchers are involved in other Nordic blished and remain important are the Oden icebreaker, initiatives too. For example, the Swedish Defence the research stations in Abisko (where the northern- Research Agency (FOI) has taken part in the Civilclim most ICOS measuring station is located), Tarfala (run project, funded by the Norwegian organisation Vestby Stockholm University) and the Odin satellite (oper- landsforsking. In this project, the crisis management ated by the Swedish National Space Board). In the system has been studied with respect to the progress period under review, the Swedish Polar Research in climate change adaptation made in three European Secretariat was given a new, extended remit that in- cities.

8. Research and systematic observation 109

8.3 European collaboration

Biosphere Programme (IGBP). By participating in the International Council for Science (ICSU), Sweden Sweden supports EU cooperation and participates in has taken a lead in the endeavour to integrate global many different contexts associated with the climate. change programmes in the international Future Earth These include the European Centre for Medium-Range initiative, with its focus on integrating research in Weather Forecasts’ Earth system model (EC-Earth), social and natural sciences as one means of bridging European Research Area Networks (ERA-NET) and the gap between policy and practice. the Joint Programming Initiative (JPI). The primary To link Swedish research initiatives in global develpurposes of these arrangements are to develop joint opment in a more strategic and powerful way, the European research, exchange experience and issue joint Swedish Secretariat for Environmental Earth joint funding calls for research proposals. The EC- System Sciences (SSEESS) has been set up by several Earth consortium entails close collaboration among research funders – the Swedish Research Council several Swedish universities (Stockholm, Lund, Goth- Formas, Swedish Research Council (VR), Swedish enburg, Chalmers and Linköping). The Earth model is Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welto be developed so that it can be evaluated and com- fare (Forte), Swedish Governmental Agency for Innopared with other global models within the framework vation Systems (VINNOVA) and also, since 2012, the of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Swedish International Development Cooperation (CMIP6), which is preliminarily scheduled for imple- Agency (Sida) – together with the Royal Swedish Acadmentation in 2014–18. EC-Earth, headed by the Rossby emy of Sciences (KVA). The purpose of SSEESS is to Centre, has recently made a contribution to the inter- work for greater Swedish involvement in international national CMIP5 project, which is the primary model- interdisciplinary research on global environmental and ling basis for the fifth IPCC assessment. The Rossby resource issues and simultaneously serve as a reliable Centre also heads a European initiative for future information source for Swedish decision makers. development of high-resolution global climate mod- Within the framework of the Arctic Council and els in the EU’s Seventh Framework Programme for the Swedish Chairmanship in 2011–13, the Swedish Research and Technological Development (FP7), Phase Environmental Protection Agency and Formas are 2 of Infrastructure for the European Network of Earth funding a circum-Arctic project about threshold effects System Modelling (IS-ENES2). (tipping points), the Arctic Resilience Report (ARR). There is collaboration between the Joint Research This joint project involving the Arctic states is headed Centre (JRC) and researchers at Swedish government by SEI. agencies, organisations and HEIs in areas relating to the climate (emissions, land use, forest ecosystems in

Europe, renewable energy and technology with low 8.5 Organisation

carbon dioxide emissions, for example).

Sweden is taking part in research on the Baltic Sea, 8.5.1 Research funders

notably through the Joint Baltic Sea Research and Central government and other parts of the public Development Programme (BONUS), which is funded sector are the largest funders of academic research. by the countries around the Baltic in cooperation with Alongside direct appropriations to HEIs, the most the EU. Rather than directly focusing on the climate, important public research funders are research councils BONUS covers both climate change impact and meas- and a few other funding agencies. Research foundaures to reduce emissions, especially from shipping. tions and the EU, municipalities and county councils Stockholm University, SMHI and the Rossby Centre also fund research. With the inclusion of the private are also participating in the Baltic Sea Experiment sector as well, the business sector is the largest funder (BALTEX), an EU project focusing on hydrology, climate of R&D. and water management in the Baltic Sea basin.

8.5.2 Performers

Almost two-thirds of publicly funded research in

8.4 Global collaboration Sweden is carried out at HEIs. Other public research

Sweden and Swedish researchers are engaged in various performers include industrial research institutes and global scientific research activities with a climate some sectoral agencies. perspective, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on All the HEIs have their own research resources, Climate Change (IPCC), World Climate Research which have been strengthened in recent years (see page Programme (WCRP) and International Geosphere- 108). In addition, there are some central government

110 8. Research and systematic observation

institutes and sectoral institutes with close industrial

Table. 8.1 State support for climate research in

ties that conduct publicly funded research.

2010 according to the Swedish National Audit Office’s questionnaire survey of higher education institutions

8.5.3 Funding

and private companies, SEK million

Since research is increasingly required to contribute

SEK Of which,

and vulnerability for by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Reduction of greenhouse gases 1 393 296 Change (UNFCCC). It also makes it difficult to com- Total 1 951 500 pare reporting in different years. This was, in partic ular, reflected in the Swedish National Audit Office’s report

(Swedish NAO 2012), which concluded that at least 8.6 Systematic observation

SEK 2bn had been spent on climate research in 2010, Climate observations comprise systematic collection of against the SEK 1.2bn stated in Sweden’s Fifth Na- data on meteorology, hydrology and oceanography. In tional Communication on Climate Change (NC5). addition, they include monitoring of sources and sinks Another important difference is, however, that funds for greenhouse gases, as well as climate-related effects for faculties and basic state funding for universities on ecosystems, such as changes in vegetation and soil. were not included in NC5, whereas the Swedish There are growing demands for measurements re- NAO’s survey included these. Some 25% of state lated to vegetation and soil conditions. Some governfunding of climate research in 2010 consisted of basic ment agencies have therefore created a joint archive of grants at HEIs. Support for climate research made up satellite data (saccess.lantmateriet.se; see also section 7% of aggregate state funding for research and develop- 8.1.3 Research infrastructure). Every year, multispecment in 2010, and if funding from the EU, munici- tral optical satellite data with a resolution of 10–30 m, palities, county councils and private stakeholders is covering the whole of Sweden and collected during included total funds for climate research amounted to the vegetation period, are added to the archive. This at least SEK 3.6bn in 2010, according to the Swedish archive helps users to study changes in the Swedish NAO’s report. landscape and the environment over the past three A further source of uncertainty when it comes to decades and more. determining the scale of climate research is that not Sweden has a well-developed system of environmenall climate research constitutes ‘research’ or ‘develop- tal monitoring and Swedish measurement series are, in ment’ as defined by the OECD. Some activities, such as many cases, of unique length worldwide. those funded by the Swedish Energy Agency from its

grant for energy research, are a matter of disseminat- 8.6.1 Responsible organisations

ing information and performing evaluation and stand- The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Instiardisation instead. The largest item in the national tute (SMHI) is the administrative agency for meteorolobudget for research and development, according to gy, climatology, hydrology and oceanography. SMHI Statistics Sweden’s national budget analysis for 2012, provides society with data and is responsible for adis direct grants for research and research training at ministering and developing infrastructure and thereby HEIs. These grants amounted to SEK 14.5bn in 2012. collecting and disseminating knowledge of Sweden’s Of the other grants for research funders, the largest meteorological, climatological, hydrological and oceanoitems are for fundamental research through the Swedish graphic conditions. Under its directives, SMHI repre- Research Council, totalling more than SEK 5.1bn in sents Sweden in the World Meteorological Organisa- 2013, energy research through the Swedish Energy tion (WMO), European Centre for Medium-Range Agency, SEK 1.3bn, and the SEK 926m for develop- Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and European Organisament research in 2012 through Sida. Here, since the tion for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites Swedish NAO has recently reviewed roughly the same (EUMETSAT), where climate monitoring is an ever period as that covered by Sweden’s Sixth National more essential activity. In addition, SMHI collaborates Communication on Climate Change (NC6), we use its with other Nordic and European weather services on figures as a starting point. Note, however, that they are climate-related issues. not comparable with the figures in NC5. SMHI is also the Swedish representative in the user forum, set up by the European Commission, for what used to be Global Monitoring for Environment and

8. Research and systematic observation 111

Security (GMES) and is now the European Earth Obser- 8.7.1 Climate processes and climate system vation Programme (Copernicus). In 2011, a liaison studies, including palaeoclimate studies

group coordinated by SMHI was formed. This group is Key projects for climate work in this category concern composed of 12 government agencies that use data research and development relating to the exchange of from Earth observations. Its primary function is to greenhouse gases at a landscape level, and black carbon define end-users’ needs and demands as the basis for (soot) and other aerosols – their sources, processes and Swedish positions on priorities in GMES/Copernicus effects in the climate system, from local to regional regarding the areas of climate, atmosphere, sea, land, and global perspectives. Research on the climate sysnatural disasters and safety. tem is under way at several universities. One new in- The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency is stitute that has appeared since the Fifth National responsible for coordinating environmental monitor- Communication is the Bolin Centre for Climate ing. This monitoring helps those concerned to follow Research at Stockholm University (SU), a product of the effects of climate change in all biogeochemical sys- the policy of investing in strong research environtems but also, in the long term, involves following ments. A hub of inter- and multidisciplinary research trends in how the measures adopted affect ecosystems in geosciences at SU, the Centre is one of the groups and society. Government-funded environmental moni- contributing to EC-Earth CMIP5 (the Fifth Coupled toring is divided into ten different programme areas, Model Intercomparison Project). including air, forest, farmland, mountain areas, land-

scapes, coordination of toxic substances and health- 8.7.2 Modelling and scenarios related environmental monitoring. The new Swedish (including GCMs)

Agency for Marine and Water Management took over The Rossby Centre develops regional and global climonitoring of coasts and seas, freshwater and wetlands mate models (RCMs and GCMs respectively). As for during the period under review. global climate modelling, the Centre’s activities are The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency focused entirely on the EC-Earth model. The Centre is represents Sweden in the European Environment now heading development work on the latest version Agency (EEA), which coordinates European monitor- of EC-Earth, and also bears overall responsibility for ing, and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). the technical and scientific development of this ver- The Swedish National Space Board (SNSB) repre- sion over the next three to five years. With the new sents Sweden in the European Space Agency (ESA); the initiatives in strategic areas, ‘ModElling the Regional EU Seventh Framework Programme for Research (FP7), and Global Earth system’ (MERGE) was formed. Inin the thematic area of Space; and GMES/Copernicus. volving five universities and the Rossby Centre, SNSB also works on bilateral and multilateral satellite MERGE is coordinated by Lund University. The group’s projects, of which the Odin satellite, with its strato- focus is the connection between vegetation and the spheric ozone monitoring, is one example. land-based ecosystems’ interaction with the climate system, including short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). The Rossby Centre, the Mistra-SWECIA research pro-

8.7 Programmes and funding of

gramme, the Department of Meteorology at Stockholm University (MISU) and Lund University are jointly

climate-related research, including

working to develop the global EC-Earth climate

international cooperation model. The Mistra-SWECIA programme is addressing

such areas as regional climate modelling, with specific During the period, the bulk of new resources went to topics including high-resolution climate scenarios, energy research and development of technologies that climate change impact, risk assessment and climate mitigate the climate impact of the energy and trans- change adaptation as a societal process, with a focus port sectors. Examples are wind power, second-genera- that is expected to provide vital decision support in tion biofuels and hybrid vehicles. Strongly linked to forestry. energy issues is sustainable use of natural resources,

since an increase in energy raw materials from the 8.7.3 Impacts of climate change

farm and forestry sectors is imperative. Below, selected Research on effects of climate change takes the form major or more strategically important initiatives in all of in situ studies but is also based on models to a large areas are described. extent. The research is conducted in several areas, including climate change impacts and air quality; effects on seas and oceans, and hydrological risks; and

112 8. Research and systematic observation

the implications of future natural disasters, such as 8.7.4 Socio-economic analysis flooding and drought. The research issues are SLCPs; the (including impacts of climate change, impact of climate change on future concentrations adaptation needs and scope for of air pollutants; and, conversely, the effects of air pol- protective measures)

lutants on the climate. Since 2011, SMHI’s remit has in- Research to support global negotiations takes place, cluded coordinating SLCP efforts in Sweden. The aims for instance, in the International Climate Policy reare to involve national stakeholders in this work and search programme, which is funded by the Swedish initiate efforts to improve emission inventories in terms Energy Agency. Support is given to research projects, of black and organic carbon, in consultation with the synthesis, advanced investigation and global trend agencies concerned. SMHI’s climate research is also analysis for the purpose of providing an evidence base closely connected with work to improve environmental in the area of climate policy. For the current proquality; eutrophication in the Baltic Sea, for example, is gramme period (2011–14), funds have been awarded strongly connected with climate change. for research focusing on areas related, for example, to Of the various geographic regions, the Arctic is being land use: measures for reforestation and for preserving studied particularly closely owing to its vulnerable and enhancing carbon sinks in forests and wetlands, environment, its prominent role in the global climate and their potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissystem and the singularly powerful signal of climate sions. Research is also being conducted on developchange it provides. Interdisciplinary research is impor- ment of models for emission baselines, CO 2 convertant for studying the ecological and economic implica- gence, development of new flexible mechanisms, scope tions of climate change. Climate research also relates for improving measurements, verification and followto forecasting and safety, since the incidence of extreme up of measures intended to reduce greenhouse gas events, such as high water levels, may change in a emissions in developing countries, surveys of emission future climate. There is now a greater focus on hydro- trajectories for short-lived climate pollutants (black logical processes and tipping points, but also on large- carbon) etc. The programme also supports research on scale modelling of local effects, such as urban issues countries’ National Appropriate Mitigation Actions relating to elevated risk of intense precipitation. (NAMAs). One project, ‘Orchestrating International Modelling of climate-related impacts on water quality Climate Policy’, is intended to explore the potential for ecosystems and drinking water (with reference to role of the UNFCCC in three key policy areas: climate 2 the marine environment, eutrophication, lakes and funding, REDD+ and short-lived gases. Others relate watercourses, for example) takes place. to energy and consumption, with a focus on a climate- In impact research, too, investments in strategic driven energy transition and energy security. environments are under way. One such initiative is Several programmes are developing various tools. Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency’s re- Climate (BECC). The research is interdisciplinary: it search programme Climatools was concluded during investigates how different scales are connected and the period under review, and the tools developed in links ecological modelling and empirical studies, on cooperation with users at municipal and regional level the one hand, with policy and control mechanisms on are now available at the climate adaptation portal (see the other. Chapter 6) for use in local and/or regional and sectoral The Mistra Future Forests research programme is climate change adaptation. In another project, Mistra evaluating the effects of climate change on Swedish Indigo, tools and policy instruments are being devised forests, based on new climate scenarios and models. for more effective action on climate change world- The programme is also analysing which strategy is wide. The premise is that this needs to take place from most effective in reducing climate impact – sequest ering the bottom up, i.e. independently from the intercarbon in forests and forest land or using products national framework of the UNFCCC. Among the matters from forests to replace fossil-based products. being investigated are possible ways of linking together The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency funds re- trading systems for emissions of CO 2 in various parts search by issuing open calls for proposals concerning of the world. Another issue is the distributional implithe effects of natural events on society’s security and cations of carbon dioxide taxes and other climate emergency preparedness, to make it possible to strength- policy instruments. The role played and action taken en our capacity to prevent and deal with negative by industry make up a third area included in the proevents. The Agency distributes some SEK 120m annu- gramme. ally for research projects to enhance society’s protec- The Mistra Future Forests research programme is tion and preparedness. developing economic models for risk assessments in 2 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) is an initiative to create a financial value for the carbon stored in forests. REDD+ goes beyond deforestation and includes conservation, sustainable management and enhancement of forest carbon stocks. 8. Research and systematic observation 113

forestry. Questions such as how climate variables in the making of products containing mechanical and/ should be managed in a risk perspective, and when it is or chemi-mechanical pulp. Energy-system studies are worth adapting forestry strategies to a future climate, intended to enhance knowledge of how the energy are tackled in the programme. It also includes analyses system functions and prospects for constructing enof how regulations and strategies of climate and forest vironmentally, economically and socially sustainable policy (at national and international, for example EU, energy systems. Analyses clarify how various parts of level) affect the Swedish forestry sector and how vari- the system affect one another. Examples of priority ous stakeholders are positioning themselves. Research areas or activities for analysis are energy, environmental in Mistra-SWECIA, too, focuses on such objectives as and climate policy aims and instruments, and their achieving a better understanding of how society’s stake- consequences, and the functioning and future chalholders regard the risks and opportunities that a lenges of the energy markets. Work is being conducted changed climate represents and how decisions on mainly in three programmes: ‘General Energy System adaptation to these changes – with particular empha- Studies’ (AES), ‘North European Power Perspectives’ sis on Swedish forestry and with a focus on small-scale (NEPP) and the co-funded ‘Governing transitions toforest owners – come to be taken. Land-use scenarios wards Low-Carbon Energy and Transport Systems’ with new global and regional climate-economic models, (LETS). which can be used to demonstrate the implications of Behaviour-related energy research and research on various policy options, are being devised. urban development issues are also in progress. Priority The Mistra Arctic Futures research programme is areas are hydropower, wind power, solar energy, marine evaluating how disturbances of various types (such as energy and developing the future electricity grid, storms, floods and insect infestation of forests) can which will include smart networks. The research and affect the northern (Arctic) parts of Sweden. The pro- development under way in these five development gramme also analyses how policies and crisis prepared- areas are focused on environmentally sound and costness have been developed in response to events that effective production technology that can, with advanhave already taken place, both in Sweden and, for com- tage, be integrated into the power system. In every deparison, in other Arctic countries, and how this pre- velopment area there is cooperation with the business paredness can be strengthened. sector and HEIs, which paves the way for needs-driven research and development. This, in turn, helps to bring about skills development in relevant areas for the

8.7.5 Mitigation and adaptation technologies bene fit of the business sector, which enables research

The Swedish Energy Agency supports, on a number of results to be put to practical use in commercial proddevelopment platforms, research and innovation that ucts. The research programme on electricity and fuel will help to bring about the changeover to an energy from the sun deals with technology for direct conversystem that is sustainable in the long term. sion of solar energy into electricity and fuel. Research in the transport sector is concerned with Other funders contribute to research on carbon capintroducing renewable fuels and developing more en- ture and storage (CCS), including the Nordic CCS ergy-efficient energy conversion systems and vehicles, Competence Centre (NORDICCS), a network project especially for road transport. Work to devise fuel- in which the scope for large-scale CCS is being evaluated based energy systems and efficient cogeneration tech- in the Nordic region. The network is user-controlled and nologies based on biofuels is geared towards developing will examine obstacles and opportunities, including systems with higher steam data and materials for attain- more knowledge and acceptance of the issues involved. ing a higher electrical output and increased fuel flex- Another project, ‘Baltic Sea Storage of CO 2 ’ (BASTOR ibility. Activities in the thematic area of ‘buildings as 2), intends to clarify the scope and requirements for energy systems’ are aimed at developing new knowl- storing carbon dioxide in the Baltic Sea, including edge, products and services capable of contributing to the size of areas involved, leakage, legal aspects and more efficient energy use, lower energy costs in build- so forth. ings and growing use of heating systems based on A carbon-neutral future is being studied in the project renewable energy. known as ‘Nordic Energy Road Map 2050 – Strategic In the area of energy-intensive industry, research- Choices towards Carbon Neutrality’ (NORSTRAT). oriented activities are fostering efforts to boost energy Using scenario analysis of an integrated future Nordic efficiency in industrial processes in the Mekmassa power system by 2050, the researchers are studying its (mechanical pulp) initiative, in which the primary aim is implications for electricity, transport and transmission, to help to reduce total electrical energy requirements and management for transformation. The ‘Combating

114 8. Research and systematic observation

Climate Change’ (3C) project has focused on the scope (the Center for Water Resources Conservation and for the private sector to contribute to implementa- Development, WARECOD) is under way in Hanoi, tion of climate policy. As part of the CompNat (Com- Vietnam. This project, funded by Sida, is using and parability of National Climate Policy Initiatives in a developing Climatools (see section 8.7.4). The Mistra Fragmented International Climate Regime) project, Urban Futures programme is conducting research on experiments were carried out to develop a method sustainable urban development in cooperation with that would afford a better understanding of national platforms funded by Sida in Manchester, Kisumu, prospects of implementing the Copenhagen Accord. Shanghai and Cape Town. The emphasis was on political, technical and economic factors as drivers, to provide guidance for a broad international agreement. An important new initiative

8.8 Programmes and funding of

has been taken in the GOVREP project where, in coop-

systematic observation, including

eration with researchers in law and other disciplines,

the focus is on management of energy systems. This international cooperation

research grouping is a new and valuable resource. The basic elements of systematic observation are measurements in meteorology, hydrology and oceanography.

8.7.6 Support for climate-related research in In Sweden, there are monitoring systems with great developing countries potential to help bring about systematic, coherent

The Swedish International Development Cooperation gathering of information concerning changes in terres- Agency (Sida) has been the principal funder of re- trial systems. search projects conducted in developing countries. Funding is provided in the form of grants to govern- Sida mainly funds projects to support capacity build- ment agencies, which outsource assignments. SMHI and ing in low-income countries. In 2009 there was a par- the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU) ticular focus on food. The Climate Change Initiative are the principal performers. The Swedish Environmen- (CCI) is receiving SEK 1.15bn in funds for the period tal Protection Agency contributes some SEK 35m and 2009–12, primarily for bilateral and regional initia- SMHI roughly SEK 240m annually, comprising grants tives for adaptation. Its overarching aims are to boost for meteorology (SEK 37m), hydrology (SEK 14m) and the accumulation of research capacity and regional oceanography (SEK 186m). Sweden also grants SEK 60m exchange of knowledge; ensure that knowledge is ap- to the European Organisation for the Exploitation of plied at all levels of society; and identify opportuni- Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) and SMHI conties for collaboration. Sida contributed some SEK tributes SEK 0.9m to European observations through 3 1.4bn to UNFCCC-related initiatives and capacity- EUMETNET , such as Aircraft Meteorological Data building programmes concerning the environment Relay (AMDAR), Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather and climate. Products (ASAP) and the Surface Marine programme of Sida funds climate-related research in every conti- the Network of European Meteorological Services nent and supports numerous initiatives and networks. (SURFMAR). This support includes research on forestry, agriculture, fishing, food, ecosystem resilience, vulnerability

and adaptation. For example, SMHI is engaged in 8.8.1 National plans, programmes and modelling of water supplies under climate change in support for ground- and space-based the Arctic, Africa, South America, China, India and climate monitoring and participation elsewhere. This includes water supplies not only for in international cooperation

food production but also for industry and energy pro- The principles of systematic monitoring established in duction. The Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) have inheads a joint international project on conflicts relat- fluenced Swedish systematic observations. Measures ed to natural resources and climate change, focusing have been taken to ensure that unbroken observation on the area around the Zambezi River in Southern series of high quality are maintained, by managing auto- Africa. The aims are to expand knowledge of how the mation with maximum accuracy when manned stations area is vulnerable to the climate and climate change, are converted into automated ones. and to strengthen early warning systems and the ca- One vital aspect of the ongoing development of pacity to prevent and resolve conflicts. International observation systems in Sweden is creation of synergy collaboration concerning climate change adaptation between meteorology, hydrology, oceanography and 3 EUMETNET is composed of 29 European national meteorological institutes.

8. Research and systematic observation 115

climate and environmental systems. Owing to improved 8.8.4 Atmospheric monitoring

methods of performing reanalyses of different varia- SMHI contributes atmospheric information to the bles, older data have become more important for in- WMO’s World Weather Watch (WWW) and this is redepth understanding of the climate and its variations. ported to GCOS. In cooperation within EUMETNET, Efforts to digitise older data are continuing, but the too, Sweden provides data on wind, temperature and volume of data means that this will take many years other variables collected at various levels through (more than a century at the current rate, for example, civil aviation, and weather radar contributes informafor meteorological data) to complete. tion about wind and precipitation. In Nordic cooperation and jointly with EUMETNET, GPS measurements of atmospheric humidity are also carried out

8.8.2 Monitoring of changes in carbon balance, in, for example, SWEPOS – the network of reference biomass and land use stations for satellite positioning support run by the

Changes in carbon balance in forested and farmed National Land Survey of Sweden. land are monitored by the Swedish National Inventory of Forests, which comprises the National Forest

8.8.5 Monitoring of the sea

Inventory (NFI) and the Forest Soil Inventory. The NFI 4 is part of Sweden’s official statistics and information SMHI hosts the European EuroGOOS secretariat, dating back to 1923 is available. It covers more than and is assisting at European level in improving data 10,000 sample plots in which inventories are carried access and measurement activity. This is done, for exout annually, in the snow-free months. Remote sensing ample, for the European Marine Observation and has considerably enhanced quality in recent years. Data Network (EMODNET), especially in coastal zones The National Inventory of Landscapes in Sweden (‘Sustained, Efficient Production of Required Infor- (NILS) is part of the Swedish Environmental Protection mation Services’, SEPRISE). Similar activities are under Agency’s national environmental monitoring pro- way in the Baltic Sea, where the Baltic Operational gramme. NILS fills the gaps left by the National Inven- Oceanographic System (BOOS) is responsible for coortory of Forests. In 2009, for example, it started a project dination and buoys have been installed by Sweden aimed at monitoring climate change impact with the and other nations. focus on the Swedish mountains, in which shifting of the treeline and forest limit is one aspect studied.

8.8.6 Monitoring of land

The primary purpose is to monitor conditions for biodiversity at a landscape level. Monitoring takes place SMHI reports river discharge data to the Global Terthrough interpretation of aerial photographs and field restrial Observing System (GTOS) and Global Runoff inventories, in a network of more than 600 permanent Data Centre (GRDC). Within the framework of the sampling areas 5 kilometres square, covering all types Swedish National Space Board’s national remote sensof terrain. ing programme, support is provided for a project for satellite monitoring of protected tropical forests (World Heritage Tropical Forests) and mapping of il-

8.8.3 Participation in international

legal logging.

cooperation for systematic climate monitoring, including GCOS

8.8.7 Sweden’s contributions to satellite data

Sweden contributes to GCOS through SMHI, with

for climate monitoring

long-term observations and measurements of parameters including temperature, precipitation, wave height, Through SMHI, within the scope of EUMETSAT’s Satice formation and glacier variations, i.e. ‘essential cli- ellite Application Facility (SAF) programme, Sweden mate variables’ (ECVs). For observations with global, is helping to develop new satellite products for climate regional and national coverage, measurement from sat- monitoring on various scales. In addition, Sweden is ellite-based systems is also required. Here, Sweden’s cooperating in two satellite programmes, Jason-2 and contributions are made in several international pro- Jason-3 (scheduled for launch in 2015), to monitor grammes, such as the ESA Climate Change Initiative both world ocean dynamics and sea levels. Negotia- (CCI), partly to achieve the objectives in the GCOS tions concerning the subsequent satellite, Jason-CS ‘Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System (to be launched in 2019), have begun with funding for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC’. from EUMETSAT, the European Space Agency (ESA), the European Commission and the National Oceanic 4 European Global Ocean Observing System.

116 8. Research and systematic observation

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The Swedish National Space Board (SNSB) is cooperating with the ESA in developing new generations of weather satellites and other satellites for remote sensing, to study the Earth and its climate systems. One of Sweden’s most important research and development contributions is refined mapping of clouds and cloud characteristics (ECVs), obtained from data provided by a combination of operational and research satellites. SNSB is also, jointly with ESA, helping to ensure continued operation of the Swedish-led Odin satellite. Research satellites, including the ENVISAT environmental satellite, have contributed and will contribute further to our understanding of the climate. Sweden is an active participant in ESA and the European Southern Observatory (ESO), which is helping to increase the supply of monitoring data relevant to the climate. In 2008, Sweden became affiliated to a new ESA programme for global monitoring of essential climate variables, ESA CCI. The purpose of this programme is to utilise old, existing data capable of being used to improve reliability in climate models, for example through reanalyses. A decision on a second phase of ESA CCI, starting in 2014, has now been taken. Sweden is contributing to the development of new infrastructure for global observation systems and services based on remote sensing in what is now called Copernicus (formerly Global Monitoring for Environment and Security, GMES). As the EU’s contribution to the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), GMES/Copernicus is a programme covering objectives both in the implementation plan for GCOS and in an equivalent plan for GEOSS. Accordingly, Sweden also contributes indirectly to the international monitoring system that the UNFCCC requires.

8.9 References for Chapter 8

Govt. Bill 2004/05:80, Forskning för ett bättre liv.

Govt. Bill 2008/09:50, Ett lyft för forskning och innovation.

Govt. Bill 2012/13:30, Forskning och innovation.

Swedish National Audit Office (2012). Svensk klimatforskning – vad kostar den och vad har den gett? (RiR 2012:2). (English summary: Swedish Climate Research: What are the Swedish Costs and Effects?)

8. Research and systematic observation 117

9 Education, training and public awareness

9.1 Policy for education, training and

experience of using knowledge transfer and information as policy instruments.

public awareness

Non-profit organisations and other knowledge In Sweden, communicating knowledge of climate centres, such as museums and adult education associachange and related measures is a key part of efforts to tions, also help to build knowledge and promote diareduce emissions with a climate impact. logue about the problems of climate change and how Current positions on climate policy in Government to solve them. Today, the notions of climate change Bill 2008/09:162, An Integrated Climate and Energy and its causes and effects are thoroughly familiar to Policy, reflect the view that the climate issue calls for the general public. popular participation and commitment. Educating the public about climate change and providing clear, easily accessible information about the environmental per-

9.2 Mass media and climate change

formance of products, in the form of labelling, are there fore encouraged. The aim is to give consumers a News reporting on climate change in the Swedish basis for making well-informed, active choices. media has steadily decreased over the past few years. Agencies such as the Swedish Environmental Protec- As Fig. 9.1 below shows, 2007 was a record year in terms tion Agency, Swedish Energy Agency and Swedish of the number of articles published, and climate- Transport Administration communicate on climate related subjects featured prominently in the media issues on behalf of the Government in their respective right up to the Copenhagen climate talks in 2009. Since areas of responsibility. All the agencies have many years’ then, media interest in climate has declined.

1200 Aftonbladet 1000 Dagens Nyheter IPCC’s 4th Assessment 983 Report Svenska Dagbladet COP-13 Bali Roadmap G8+ Summit (Toyako) 800 Total Low Carbon Green Growth COP-14

600 519 No. of Articles 456 400 IPCC’s 3rd Kyoto Protocol Assessment 298 effectuated Kyoto Protocol Report 200 adopted 209 104 128 95 139 Figure 9.1 Number of news- 51 89 63

paper articles (in Aftonbladet,

54 45 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Dagens Nyheter and Svenska

Dagbladet) on climate change.

118 9. Education, training and public awareness

100% 90% 80% Science and technology 70% ■ Policy-making 60% ■ Economic and energy interests 50% ■ Ecology / meteorological 40% ■ Culture ■ Civil society 30% Figure 9.2 Aggregated distribution 20%

(spread) of news, by subject area.

10% 0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

According to a Stockholm Environment Institute sur- 9.4 Knowledge centres for climate

vey (Carson 2012), considerable news value tends to at-

information

tach to major scientific and/or political events, which thereby attract media attention. The survey also shows Swedish Environmental Protection Agency that there was a greater focus on the private sector and This Agency works on behalf of the Swedish Governenergy issues before 2007 (Fig. 9.2). One explanation ment and is the authority in Sweden with an overview for this may be the far-reaching consensus on the cli- of the state of the environment and progress in envirmate issue that arose in 2006–07, partly owing to pub- onmental management. The Agency also has the funclication of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate tion of coordinating, monitoring and evaluating Change and the stir caused by Al Gore’s film An In- Sweden’s progress towards its environmental objecconvenient Truth. Sweden’s lack of any national extrac- tives and, above all, supporting other stakeholders in tion of fossil fuels to defend and the fact that most their environmental efforts, by developing and dislarge companies at the time had already acknowledged seminating knowledge, formulating requirements and climate change as a major challenge brought about aspirations, and engaging in monitoring and evaluaa shift in public interest from questions about the tion. Since February 2013, the Agency has had a new causes of the problem (‘What…?’) to asking about solu- website (www.naturvardsverket.se) with extensive intions (‘How…?’). formation about climate change. Another conclusion about media reporting of cli- Since 2001, the Environmental Protection Agency mate change is that less attention is now being paid to has also been holding the annual ‘Climate Forum’, a viewpoints and opinions that contradict the conclu- seminar at which various themes with a bearing on clisions presented in The Physical Science Basis, part of mate change are discussed. The Forum brings together the Fourth Assessment Report from the Intergovern- agencies, organisations, municipalities, businesses and mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). politicians.

9.3 Public awareness Swedish Energy Agency

Between 2002 and 2009, the Swedish Environmen- As the central government authority for energy issues, tal Protection Agency regularly conducted surveys the Swedish Energy Agency is responsible for giving of Swedes’ attitudes towards, and understanding both citizens and businesses information and advice on of, the climate problem. The purpose was partly to more efficient energy use. The Agency’s website, www. gauge the Swedish people’s preparedness and will for energimyndigheten.se, contains extensive information change to reduce emissions resulting from their own (mainly in Swedish) about households’ energy use and lifestyle and consumption. what can be done to reduce it. Along with these energy- The 2009 survey indicates that Swedes remain saving tips for the public, there is a special website for highly prepared to reduce their own greenhouse gas schools (in Swedish), www.energikunskap.se, addressed emissions, and want more information about how to teachers and pupils alike. The Agency’s Testlab tests this can be done. There is also growing preparedness the energy consumption and functioning of various to move from words to action. products, and publishes the results on the website.

9. Education, training and public awareness 119

The Energy Agency arranges, funds and takes part in The website www.smhi.se contains abundant matea range of activities at local or regional level. There are, rial (including maps) concerning various climate scefor example, development programmes like Sustainable narios for users to download. Information on climate Municipality; support for information and education change, in Swedish, has been compiled on the Klimat projects; and support, in various forms, for municipal i förändring (‘Changing climate’) theme page at www. advisory services on energy and the climate, and for smhi.se/tema/Klimat-i-forandring. Since 2012, SMHI regional energy offices. Advice on energy and climate has also run a National Knowledge Centre for Climate change, addressing the public, small and medium-sized Change Adaptation to compile, summarise and make enterprises (SMEs) and organisations, is available in available relevant knowledge. In managing the Centre, most Swedish municipalities. SMHI collaborates on a broad front with stakeholders involved in climate change adaptation. Swedish Consumer Agency The Centre also runs the Swedish Portal for Climate The Swedish Consumer Agency, the country’s central Change Adaptation, a collaborative undertaking involvadministrative authority for consumer affairs, bears ing 13 government agencies. This website, www.kliprimary responsibility for implementing government matanpassning.se, serves to support those engaged in consumer policy. The Agency’s remit includes inte- adapting society to climate change. grated responsibility for consumer-related environmental and sustainability issues, and also special respon- Swedish Transport Administration sibility for progress towards environmental objectives The Swedish Transport Administration is a central within its own sphere of activities. The Agency’s web- government agency tasked with ensuring that the syssite, www.konsumentverket.se, serves as a portal for tems for road and rail transport, shipping and aviation its own and other authorities’ consumer information. are of a high standard, economically efficient and uni- Its publicity aimed at the public includes information versally available. about climate and environmental labels, such as the The Administration is in charge of environmental Nordic Ecolabel, Good Environmental Choice and the issues associated with the state road and rail networks. EU Ecolabel. It works to reduce emissions that affect climate, by The Consumer Agency also provides Bilsvar, an online promoting attractive, accessible towns and cities charservice offering an overview of vehicles’ fuel consump- acterised by reduced car dependence, energy-efficient tion, CO 2 emissions, economy and safety. goods transport chains, more energy-efficient road vehicles and railway rolling stock on a sustainable Swedish Forest Agency energy basis, and energy-efficient infrastructure main- In the years 2009–12, the Swedish Forest Agency re- tenance. ceived special funds to inform forest owners and for- The website www.trafikverket.se contains general est officers about climate change. Information and ad- information about the environmental impact of road vice about the climate have been provided at special and rail transport, and about how individuals can reduce seminars or conferences in the various forest districts. emissions by, for example, choosing low-emission modes The Agency’s website, www.skogsstyrelsen.se, and the of transport, driving economically and selecting fuelmagazine Skogseko (‘Forest Echo’) have also been im- saving vehicles. portant channels.

Swedish Defence Research Agency

Swedish Board of Agriculture The Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) is a re- Agriculture influences the environment in many dif- search institute in the area of defence and security ferent ways. The Swedish Board of Agriculture web- that is helping society to adapt to a changing climate by site, www.jordbruksverket.se, reports both on global developing methods and tools. The Agency also conducts aspects of climate change and on matters relating to research with the aim of understanding conditions for biodiversity and individual farmers. adaptation both in Sweden and abroad. In the Climatools research programme, funded by Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, adap- The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute tation tools have been developed in cooperation with (SMHI) develops and distributes information about the stakeholders that include a few municipalities. The weather, water and the climate for the purpose of pro- intention is for these tools to make it easier for spatial viding knowledge and high-quality decision support for planners and decision makers to adapt society to the the public and business sectors and for citizens. repercussions of climate change. Researchers from

120 9. Education, training and public awareness

FOI, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, the National channel for knowledge transfer and mobilisation of Institute of Economic Research and Umeå University commitment. Relevant organisations include: have taken part in the various projects concerning • Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (SSNC), these tools. Information about Climatools is available www.snf.se at www.climatools.se. • Keep Sweden Tidy Foundation, www.hsr.se • Swedish Association of Green Motorists, www.gronabilister.se • WWF, www.wwf.se

9.5 Complementary knowledge centres • Greenpeace, www.greenpeace.se

• Friends of the Earth Sweden, www.mjv.se Swedish Museum of Natural History • PUSH Sweden (in Swedish), www.pushsverige.se The Museum of Natural History in Stockholm is a knowledge centre and meeting place for the public and experts with an interest in nature and the envi-

ronment. Since 2004 it has hosted Mission: Climate 9.6 Initiatives and activities

Earth, an exhibition designed to impart basic knowl-

9.6.1 Education: school-oriented activities

edge of climate issues and of what can be done to curb climate change. The exhibition, combining facts and In Sweden preschools, schools and adult education sensory experiences, has been seen by some 1.2 mil- have a clear remit to foster socially, economically lion visitors to date. The Museum also issues study ma- and ecologically sustainable development. This remit terial and a teacher’s guide linked to the exhibition, is formulated in national governance documents such catering for school pupils of all ages. The content of as the Education Act, curricula and syllabuses. the exhibition was devised in cooperation with Stock- The National Agency for Education is responsible for holm University, the Swedish Environmental Protec- initiatives such as the Education for Sustainable Develoption Agency, the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) ment award (started in 2005), which has helped to boost and SMHI. motivation for and interest in working for sustainable development in compulsory school. In-depth teaching Adult education associations on climate issues is common at upper secondary level. The Study Promotion Association (Studiefrämjandet) Several higher education institutions offer courses offers nationwide study circles with the goal of enhan- on the scientific basics of the climate and/or climatecing knowledge about the problem of climate change related subjects like energy and forestry. There are variand what can be done to turn the trend in the right ous networks and centres of competence; at Karlstad direction. Personal study materials on sustainable de- University, for example, there is a Centre for Climate velopment form the basis for a wide range of study and Safety that aspires to accumulate knowledge and circles on such subjects as building solar panels and experience of risks associated with climate change. locally adapted courses on sustainable development. Several public agencies and knowledge centres offer The Association has also trained ‘climate ambassadors’ online climate information addressing pupils of variand ‘climate heroes’ around Sweden, who offer to lecture ous ages. With its Green Flag award, the Keep Sweden or help to start study circles in, for example, energy, Tidy Foundation assists a growing number of Swedish consumption, lifestyle and policy. schools with targets and a structure for their environ- In several locations in Sweden, the Workers’ Educa- mental work. The issues of climate change, energy effitional Association (Arbetarnas Bildningsförbund, ABF) ciency and resource conservation are dealt with under runs ‘climate courses’ that cover the causes of climate the overarching objective of sustainable development. change and its effects, globally and in Sweden. Students Volunteers from Greenpeace, known as ‘Greenlearn more about the nature of connections between speakers’, give talks in schools on request. Interest in the climate, the environment and health, and learn to these talks has increased, and considerable scope has make conscious choices to reduce environmental impact. been given to climate change, which is a key issue for Greenpeace. Other non-governmental organisations Information campaigns targeting schools include the Swedish non-governmental organisations play an active following: part in public debate on climate change, by creating • Energy around the Baltic Sea (Swedish Energy Agency), arenas and meeting places for discussion, debate and a set of materials for schools that link energy, enaction. The Internet is, in this context, an important vironment and climate. The materials are available

9. Education, training and public awareness 121

in Swedish, English, Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Several major conferences on climate and energy Polish and Russian. themes are held in Sweden every year. These include • Active Learning (Swedish Energy Agency and Swed- the Climate Forum, held annually by the Environmenish schools, 2007–08), an EU project aimed at school tal Protection Agency, and Nordic Energy Outlook, pupils and teachers and designed to teach younger arranged by the Swedish Energy Agency. In addition, children (aged 6–13) to use energy responsibly and the magazine MiljöAktuellt (‘Environmental News’) sustainably. holds an annual seminar on climate change adaptation • The Forest in Schools project (Swedish Forest Agency in Sweden (Klimatanpassning Sverige) jointly with and Sweden’s forest stakeholders), which connects various public agencies. These conferences attract auditheory and practice with the purpose of enhancing ences of thousands and are popular meeting places for knowledge of and interest in forests and all the agencies, organisations, businesses and politicians. values they represent, including their bearing on

the climate. 9.6.3 Public awareness and activities targeting • KNUT (‘Knowledge Development, Science, Out- the public

door Education and Technology’), a national school Several agencies have set out to provide increasing ondevelopment project at regional level, intended to line information, on climate change and what can be increase interest in, knowledge of and commitment done, for households. One discernible trend is that susto energy, climate and resource issues among chil- tainability is being discussed to a larger extent and dren and adolescents. This project seeks to help consumption is increasingly being associated with clishift society towards sustainability and boost interest mate problems. There is rising awareness of how foods in studying science and technology (for information for example, but also other products and services, afin Swedish, see www.knutprojektet.se). fect the climate. A growing volume of reports and information offering advice and guidance on how people

9.6.2 Training: courses, seminars etc. can reduce their own emissions have become available.

Education and knowledge transfer at seminars have a self-evident role in promoting climate awareness at 9.6.3.1 CAUSES, EFFECTS AND ADAPTATION public agencies and companies alike. Training about Climate change will affect the whole of society and the environment and the climate is often among the exert effects on various ecosystems and sectors. Ticks steps taken by companies to achieve environmen- are spreading northwards in Sweden; skiing resorts are tal certification to international standards (ISO and seeking solutions to ensure sufficient snow; and muni- EMAS). Businesses’ involvement in climate issues is re- cipalities are planning to tackle risks of floods and flected, not least, in a rise in the number of networks landslides. SMHI’s website provides both general inin which companies jointly hold seminars on climate formation about climate change and analyses on the and environment to promote their own business de- impact this will have regionally and locally. Users can velopment. Climate and energy experts from agencies also download a selection of scenario data or study a and organisations are often among the lecturers. set of climate indicators (temperature, precipitation, The Internet is frequently used for knowledge trans- extreme precipitation and sea level). fer and exchange of experience among and within For sharing of experience on practical adaptation to agencies and organisations. One example is the Swed- climate change, there are frequent seminars where the ish Portal for Climate Change Adaptation, with its need for a national strategy for climate change adapfacts and guidance on adaptation to a warmer climate. tation is discussed. Agencies, municipalities and busi- The Portal is managed by the National Knowledge nesses with activities requiring adaptation measures Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, which was set are the target groups for these seminars. up at SMHI on the Government’s behalf. Training courses on how environmental and climate 9.6.3.2 TRANSPORT requirements can be imposed in procurement are held Emission checks carried out by the Swedish vehicle by a range of providers at national, regional and local inspection company Bilprovningen are its most imlevel. portant contribution to reducing the environmental SMHI offers lectures and customised courses on cli- impact of traffic on Swedish roads. The company also mate change to companies, municipalities and agencies. disseminates environmental advice to vehicle owners. These explain the science behind climate change, its Roughly a third of emissions in Sweden come from causes and effects, focusing on the audience’s activi- road transport, and most of these come from passenger ties. cars. Inspections carried out by the company include

122 9. Education, training and public awareness

several important environmental checks that reveal Information about food with a relatively low climate environment-related defects in nearly 5% of all cars. impact and simple ways of saving electricity in the Every year, the Swedish Consumer Agency issues its kitchen is disseminated by a range of stakeholders. Joint publication ‘Vehicles, Fuel Consumption and our Envi- efforts are being made by the central government and ronment’ (Bilar, bränsleförbrukning och vår miljö), con- various sectoral bodies to develop climate labelling for taining advice on fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions food. from new cars, and on how to consume less fuel and IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute has reduce the environmental impact of vehicles in other developed a web-based tool, the ‘Climate Account’, for ways. individuals to measure their carbon footprint. By pro- The Swedish Association of Green Motorists pro- viding users with information and a way of estimating motes development of environmentally sound road their greenhouse gas emissions, the Climate Account transport by, for example, surveying the local presence can help to reduce climate impact from personal conof green cars. The organisation also provides advice sumption. Basic information on how to reduce one’s and support to purchasers of green cars, publishes emissions, and about the impact of policy instruments an annual list of the greenest vehicles and, in various on society’s emissions, is also available. ways, highlights climate initiatives in the road trans- The Swedish Environmental Management Council port sector. offers a method of listing the greenhouse gas emissions from products according to the international Environ- 9.6.3.3 HEATING AND ENERGY USE mental Product Declaration (EPD) system (www.envir- The three-year Become Energy-Smart campaign ended ondec.com). The EPD represents a comprehensive in 2009. It included an exhibition, ‘The Energy-Smart approach to the climate impact of products and can House’, which visited several locations in Sweden. The be used by manufacturers, but also by purchasers and public were given advice on how to save energy at consumers wishing to make climate-friendly buying home, and there was an energy calculator in the infor- decisions. mation material that estimated costs of investments

to reduce energy requirements in single-family 9.6.4 Public participation and public access to dwellings. The campaign was run jointly by the Swedish information: strategies and examples

Energy Agency, Environmental Protection Agency, There is ample scope in Sweden to ask questions and Consumer Agency and National Board of Housing, express views on an area of knowledge or a policy pro- Building and Planning. posal, through consultation procedures and open Municipal energy and climate advisers are an impor- meetings, hearings and seminars. Special initiatives are tant channel of information to the public. They provide also taken to increase public participation in climate advice and support for households and businesses on work. Activities range from answering questions online many topics, from changing a heating system to insula- to engaging in open consultations. Non-profit organition and other ways of improving energy efficiency. sations often establish web-based forums or appeals There are advisers in most Swedish municipalities, and where the public are urged to express their opinions. they receive state financial support through the Energy Energy and climate advisers in Sweden’s municipali- Agency. ties reply free of charge to questions about heating, Sweden also takes part, through WWF, in the Earth energy costs and efficiency, transport, climate, govern- Hour campaign. As part of this campaign, WWF has in- ment grants relating to energy and a great deal else. vited towns and cities in selected countries to present This advisory service caters for the general public, inspiring and credible plans for radically increasing the SMEs and organisations. share of renewable energy used over the next few dec- Authorities and organisations at national level also ades. Twelve Swedish towns signed up for the challenge regularly answer verbal and written questions from to show how they are planning to favour climate-smart the public. solutions for housing, transport, food and other sectors.

9.6.5 International cooperation and efforts to

9.6.3.4 CONSUMPTION AND CLIMATE LABELLING

disseminate Swedish findings abroad

The Consumer Agency’s online Miljömätaren (‘Envirometer’) tool explains a person’s impact on the environ- Between 2007 and 2012, in cooperation with the conment in an easily intelligible way. Here, too, estimates sultancy Sweco, the Stockholm Environment Institute of what changed behaviour would mean for energy use and other organisations, SMHI ran information camare available. paigns within the framework of its international train-

9. Education, training and public awareness 123

ing programme Climate Change – Mitigation and Adap- models to other municipalities. The programme is now tation. The training, funded by the Swedish Interna- in its third phase. Municipal climate and energy advisers, tional Development Cooperation Agency (Sida), had the too, form a network and are regularly offered training overarching aim of boosting knowledge of the causes and information by the Energy Agency. and effects of climate change in developing countries. The Climate-Neutral Freight Transportation network The target group was people in leading positions in is a cooperative project involving the Centre for national or local public administration, non-govern- Environment and Sustainability at Chalmers University mental organisations, universities or companies. of Technology and the University of Gothenburg, to- During the period, some 440 participants from about gether with Preem AB, Schenker AB, Volvo Trucks and 50 countries took part in the project, which is now in the Swedish Transport Administration. The purpose of a concluding and evaluation phase. the work is to reduce CO2 emissions, the target being SMHI also takes part in the UN Regional Initiative for to halve, by the year 2020, the climate impact of goods the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water transport by road. Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab For food producers there is the Food and Environ- Region (ESCWA RICCAR), which is being funded by ment network run by the Swedish Institute for Food and Sida from 2011 to 2013. This initiative identifies both Biotechnology (SIK). The purpose of this network is to the socio-economic and the environmental vulnerabil- expand knowledge and understanding of the climate ity caused by climate change impacts on water availa- impact of food products, and to strengthen the probility in the region. The Swedish contribution includes ducers’ positions on the market. Participants meet reguregional climate modelling and simulation of hydrolog- larly and benefit from one another’s experience. ical effects. The Haga Initiative is a business network that works In 2007, the Swedish Forest Agency embarked on to reduce emissions from the business sector and raise cooperation with forest authorities in US states in the awareness of climate issues by showing that ambitious Mid-West. This cooperation includes activities focused climate strategies afford business advantages and greater on exchanging experience and knowledge concerning profitability. The Initiative includes Axfood, Cocaopportunities and problems associated with the role of Cola Enterprises Sweden, Fortum Värme, JM, Lantforests in addressing climate change. Since May 2008, männen, Löfbergs, McDonald’s, Procter & Gamble Sweden, through the Forest Agency, has also been head- Sweden, HKScan Sweden, Stena Recycling, Statoil Fuel ing a development process on bioenergy and climate & Retail Sweden and Vasakronan. within the pan-European body for developing forest policy, the Ministerial Conference on the Protection of

Forests in Europe (MCPFE). 9.7 References for Chapter 9

Carson (2012) All together now? Climate change in the Swedish mainstream press (under review).

9.6.6 Networking: networks, in Sweden and abroad, used to disseminate and communicate information about climate change

Sweden has a number of networks focusing on climate issues, each with a distinctive emphasis. The National Knowledge Centre for Climate Change Adaptation runs the Swedish Portal for Climate Change Adaptation. The Portal is a resource for those engaged in adapting society to climate change, and also for other stakeholders. At local level, networking in programmes or projects is a common form of cooperation. One example is the Swedish Energy Agency’s Sustainable Municipality programme, covering 37 selected municipalities in Sweden. The idea is that, through joint action, the municipalities should create, develop and disseminate best practice relating to energy in the areas of physical planning and economic policy. They are also intended to develop their general energy and climate work and thereby be

124 9. Education, training and public awareness

9. Education, training and public awareness 125

Bilagor

Bilagor Annex 1: Acronyms and abbreviations

% Per cent CCS Carbon capture and storage € Euro(s) CDM Clean Development Mechanism

°C Degree(s) Celsius CER Certified emission reduction 3C Combating Climate Change CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research AAUs Assigned amount units CH 4 Methane ABF Arbetarnas Bildningsförbund (Workers’ Educational Association of Sweden) CHP Combined heat and power ADB Asian Development Bank CIFs Climate Investment Funds AES Allmänna energisystemstudier CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, (General Energy System Studies) Phase 5 AfDB African Development Bank CMIP6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 AMDAR Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay CO 2 Carbon dioxide AOGCM Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model CO 2 eq Carbon dioxide equivalent ARR Arctic Resilience Report CompNat Comparability of National Climate Policy ASAP Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Initiatives in a Fragmented International Programme (Ch. 7) Climate Regime ASAP Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products COP Conference of the Parties (Ch. 8) CPF Carbon Partnership Facility Baltadapt Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy CRF Common Reporting Format BASTOR 2 Baltic Sea Storage of CO 2 CRS Creditor Reporting System BBR Building Regulations of the Swedish National CTF Clean Technology Fund Board of Housing, Building and Planning DAC Development Assistance Committee of the OECD BECC Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a E85 Fuel blend of about 85% denatured ethanol and Changing Climate 15% petrol (gasoline) or other hydrocarbon bn Billion (1,000 million) EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and BONUS Joint Baltic Sea Research and Development Development Programme ECDS Environment Climate Data Sweden BOOS Baltic Operational Oceanographic System EC-Earth Earth system model of the European Centre for C Manufacturing (Swedish Standard Industrial Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Classification SNI 2007) ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather CAB County administrative board Forecasts CAEP Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection ECVs Essential climate variables CCAC Climate and Clean Air Coalition EEA European Environment Agency CCI Climate Change Initiative EEDI Energy Efficiency Design Index

126 Annex 1

EEOI Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development EIS Environmental impact statement ICAO International Civil Aviation Organisation EMAS Eco-Management and Audit Scheme ICOS Integrated Carbon Observation System EMODNET European Marine Observation and Data Network ICSU International Council for Science ENVISAT Environmental satellite launched by the European Space Agency IDA International Development Association

EPD Environmental Product Declaration IDB Inter-American Development Bank

ERA-NET European Research Area Networks IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development

ERU Emission reduction unit IFC International Finance Corporation

ESA European Space Agency IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

ESD Effort Sharing Decision IMO International Maritime Organisation

ESO European Southern Observatory IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

EU ETS European Union Emissions Trading System ISDR International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

EUMETSAT European Organisation for the Exploitation of IS-ENES2 Infrastructure for the European Network of Earth CCS Carbon capture and storage Meteorological Satellites System Modelling, Phase 2 CDM Clean Development Mechanism EuroGOOS European Global Ocean Observing System ISO International Organisation for Standardisation CER Certified emission reduction F Construction (Swedish Standard Industrial IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Classification SNI 2007) IVL IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Research FAME Fatty acid methyl ester JI Joint Implementation CH 4 Methane F-gases Fluorinated greenhouse gases JPI Joint Programming Initiative CHP Combined heat and power FIP Forest Investment Programme JRC Joint Research Centre CIFs Climate Investment Funds FOI Swedish Defence Research Agency KLIMP Local climate investment programmes CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, FORTE Swedish Research Council for Health, Phase 5 km 2 Square kilometre(s) Working Life and Welfare CMIP6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, KVA Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Phase 6 FP7 EU Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development kWh Kilowatt-hour(s) CO 2 Carbon dioxide FSC Forest Stewardship Council LDCs Least developed countries CO 2 eq Carbon dioxide equivalent GCF Green Climate Fund LETS Governing transitions toward Low-Carbon Energy CompNat Comparability of National Climate Policy and Transport Systems Initiatives in a Fragmented International GCM Global climate model, or general circulation model LIP Local investment programmes for ecologically Climate Regime sustainable development COP Conference of the Parties GCOS Global Climate Observing System LPG Liquefied petroleum gas CPF Carbon Partnership Facility GDP Gross domestic product LULUCF Land use, land-use change and forestry CRF Common Reporting Format GEF Global Environment Facility m 2 Square metre(s) CRS Creditor Reporting System GEOSS Global Earth Observation System of Systems m 3 Cubic metre(s) CTF Clean Technology Fund GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery MCPFE Ministerial Conference on the Protection of DAC Development Assistance Committee of the OECD Forests in Europe GMES Global Monitoring for Environment and Security E85 Fuel blend of about 85% denatured ethanol and MERGE ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system 15% petrol (gasoline) or other hydrocarbon GNI Gross national income MISU Department of Meteorology at Stockholm EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and GOVREP Governance for renewable electricity production University Development Govt. Bill Government Bill mm Millimetre(s) ECDS Environment Climate Data Sweden GPS Global Positioning System MSB Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency EC-Earth Earth system model of the European Centre for GRDC Global Runoff Data Centre Mt Million tonnes Medium-Range Weather Forecasts GTOS Global Terrestrial Observing System Mt CO eq Million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather 2 Forecasts GWh Gigawatt-hour(s) MTR Mid-Term Review

ECVs Essential climate variables ha Hectare(s) N 2 O Nitrous oxide

EEA European Environment Agency HFCs Hydrofluorocarbons NAMAs Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions

EEDI Energy Efficiency Design Index HVO Hydrotreated (hydrogenated) vegetable oil(s) NAPAs National Adaptation Programmes of Action

Annex 1 127

NC5 Fifth National Communication on Climate SIK Swedish Institute for Food and Biotechnology Change SLCPs Short-lived climate pollutants NC6 Sixth National Communication on Climate SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Change Institute NDF Nordic Development Fund SNI Swedish Standard Industrial Classification NEPP North European Power Perspectives SREP Scaling Up Renewable Energy Programme NFI National Forest Inventory SSEESS Swedish Secretariat for Environmental NILS National Inventory of Landscapes in Sweden Earth System Sciences

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric SSNC Swedish Society for Nature Conservation Administration SURFMAR Surface Marine programme of the Network of NORDCLAD- Nordic Climate Change Adaptation Research European Meteorological Services net Network TBE Tick-borne encephalitis NORDICCS Nordic CCS Competence Centre TPES Total primary energy supply NORD-STAR Nordic Centre of Excellence for Strategic TWh Terawatt-hour(s) Adaptation Research UCF T2 Umbrella Carbon Facility Tranche 2 NORSTRAT Nordic Energy Road Map 2050 – Strategic Choices towards Carbon Neutrality UN United Nations

OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and UN ESCWA Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Development RICCAR Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab PBA Planning and Building Act Region PEFC Programme for the Endorsement of Forest UNDP United Nations Development Programme Certification UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for PFCs Perfluorocarbons Europe PFE Programme for Energy Efficiency in UNEP United Nations Environment Programme Energy-Intensive Industry UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on PGD Sweden’s Policy for Global Development Climate Change PMR Partnership for Market Readiness UNISDR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk ppm Parts per million Reduction

R&D Research and development US$ US dollars

RCA Regional Atmospheric Climate Model VAT Value added tax

RCM Regional climate model VINNOVA Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems RCP Representative Concentration Pathway WARECOD Center for Water Resources Conservation and REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Development Forest Degradation WCRP World Climate Research Programme SAF Satellite Application Facility WFP World Food Programme SE4ALL Sustainable Energy for All WMO World Meteorological Organisation SEEMP Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan WWF World Wide Fund for Nature SEI Stockholm Environment Institute WWW World Weather Watch SEK Swedish kronor

SEK m Million Swedish kronor

SEPRISE Sustained, Efficient Production of Required Information Services

SF 6 Sulphur hexafluoride

SFS Swedish Code of Statutes

SGI Swedish Geotechnical Institute

Sida Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency

SIDS Small island developing states

128 Annex 1

SIK Swedish Institute for Food and Biotechnology SLCPs Short-lived climate pollutants SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute SNI Swedish Standard Industrial Classification SREP Scaling Up Renewable Energy Programme SSEESS Swedish Secretariat for Environmental Earth System Sciences SSNC Swedish Society for Nature Conservation SURFMAR Surface Marine programme of the Network of European Meteorological Services TBE Tick-borne encephalitis TPES Total primary energy supply TWh Terawatt-hour(s) UCF T2 Umbrella Carbon Facility Tranche 2 UN United Nations UN ESCWA Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the RICCAR Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNISDR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction US$ US dollars VAT Value added tax VINNOVA Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems WARECOD Center for Water Resources Conservation and Development WCRP World Climate Research Programme WFP World Food Programme WMO World Meteorological Organisation WWF World Wide Fund for Nature WWW World Weather Watch

Annex 1 129

Annex 2: Summary emissions tables 130 Annex 2

SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO 2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 1990

Submission 2013 v2.1 SWEDEN

Memo Items: (4)

Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 72 750,39 Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 35 565,93

(1) For CO 2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, the signs for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+). (2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included. (3) Parties which previously reported CO 2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR. (4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.

Annex 2 131

SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO 2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 1991

Submission 2013 v2.1 SWEDEN

Memo Items: (4)

Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 72 924,91 Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 34 792,65

(1) For CO 2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, the signs for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+). (2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included. (3) Parties which previously reported CO 2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR. (4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.

132 Annex 2

SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO 2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 1992

Submission 2013 v2.1 SWEDEN

Memo Items: (4)

Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 72 517,83 Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 36 574,68

(1) For CO 2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, the signs for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+). (2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included. (3) Parties which previously reported CO 2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR. (4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.

Annex 2 133

SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO 2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 1993

Submission 2013 v2.1 SWEDEN

Memo Items: (4)

Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 72 514,67 Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 40 361,48

(1) For CO 2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, the signs for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+). (2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included. (3) Parties which previously reported CO 2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR. (4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.

134 Annex 2

SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO 2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 1994

Submission 2013 v2.1 SWEDEN

Memo Items: (4)

Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 75 003,22 Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 42 847,22

(1) For CO 2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, the signs for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+). (2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included. (3) Parties which previously reported CO 2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR. (4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.

Annex 2 135

SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO 2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 1995

Submission 2013 v2.1 SWEDEN

Memo Items: (4)

Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 74 371,31 Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 42 795,20

(1) For CO 2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, the signs for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+). (2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included. (3) Parties which previously reported CO 2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR. (4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.

136 Annex 2

SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO 2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 1996

Submission 2013 v2.1 SWEDEN

Memo Items: (4)

Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 78 335,46 Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 45 299,87

(1) For CO 2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, the signs for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+). (2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included. (3) Parties which previously reported CO 2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR. (4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.

Annex 2 137

SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO 2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 1997

Submission 2013 v2.1 SWEDEN

Memo Items: (4)

Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 73 263,75 Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 37 830,87

(1) For CO 2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, the signs for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+). (2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included. (3) Parties which previously reported CO 2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR. (4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.

138 Annex 2

SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO 2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 1998

Submission 2013 v2.1 SWEDEN

Memo Items: (4)

Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 73 748,07 Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 39 219,26

(1) For CO 2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, the signs for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+). (2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included. (3) Parties which previously reported CO 2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR. (4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.

Annex 2 139

SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO 2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 1999

Submission 2013 v2.1 SWEDEN

Memo Items: (4)

Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 70 407,88 Total CO 2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 36 393,74

(1) For CO 2 from Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry the net emissions/removals are to be reported. For the purposes of reporting, the signs for removals are always negative (-) and for emissions positive (+). (2) Actual emissions should be included in the national totals. If no actual emissions were reported, potential emissions should be included. (3) Parties which previously reported CO 2 from soils in the Agriculture sector should note this in the NIR. (4) See footnote 8 to table Summary 1.A.

140 Annex 2

SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO 2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS Inventory 2000

Submission 2013 v2.1 SWEDEN