Riksrevisionens rapport om nationell plan för transportinfrastrukturen

Regeringens skrivelse 2023/24:135

Riksrevisionens rapport om nationell plan för transportinfrastrukturen

Regeringen överlämnar denna skrivelse till riksdagen.

Stockholm den 11 april 2024

Ulf Kristersson

Andreas Carlson

(Landsbygds- och infrastrukturdepartementet)

Skrivelsens huvudsakliga innehåll

I skrivelsen redovisar regeringen sin bedömning av de iakttagelser och rekommendationer som Riksrevisionen har gjort i rapporten Nationell plan för transportinfrastrukturen – lovar mer än den kan hålla (RiR 2033:25).

Riksrevisionens övergripande slutsats är att investeringarna i nationell plan bidrar till att de transportpolitiska målen uppnås men inte på ett effektivt sätt.

Regeringen välkomnar Riksrevisionens granskning och anser att den är ett viktigt bidrag i arbetet med att utveckla processen kring framtagandet av en ny nationell plan. Regeringen står i begrepp att ta fram en ny infrastrukturproposition för att kunna fatta ett beslut om en ny nationell plan under 2026 och anser att Riksrevisionens iakttagelser och rekommendationer utgör ett underlag i den fortsatta processen.

I och med denna skrivelse anser regeringen att Riksrevisionens rapport är slutbehandlad.

1 Ärendet och dess beredning

Riksrevisionen har granskat om investeringarna i den nationella planen för transportinfrastrukturen effektivt bidrar till att de transportpolitiska målen uppnås. Granskningen redovisas i rapporten Nationell plan för transportinfrastrukturen – lovar mer än den kan hålla (RiR 2023:25), se bilagan. Riksrevisionen fokuserar granskningen på den senast fastställda nationella planen för transportinfrastrukturen, som omfattar perioden 2022–2033, och arbetet med den.

Riksrevisionens motiv för granskningen är att transportinfrastrukturen är ett stort utgiftsområde för staten med stor budgetpåverkan. Utöver detta såg Riksrevisionen flera problemindikatorer som motiverade en granskning av nationell plan, bl.a. svag måluppfyllelse, bristande kostnadskontroll och bristande transparens. Riksrevisionen redovisar slutsatser och rekommendationer som avser regeringen och Trafikverket.

Riksdagen överlämnade rapporten till regeringen den 19 december 2023. Inom ramen för framtagandet av denna skrivelse har synpunkter inhämtats från Trafikverket. Regeringen behandlar i denna skrivelse främst de iakttagelser och rekommendationer som Riksrevisionen har riktat till regeringen.

2 Riksrevisionens iakttagelser

Riksrevisionens övergripande slutsats är att investeringarna i nationell plan bidrar till att de transportpolitiska målen uppnås men inte på ett effektivt sätt. Riksrevisionen har synpunkter på regeringens styrning av framtagandeprocessen och beslutet om fastställelse av den nationella trafikslagsövergripande planen för transportinfrastrukturen för perioden 2022–2033 samt Trafikverkets förslag till nationell plan som låg till grund för beslutet. Riksrevisionen lämnar vidare rekommendationer på åtgärder till både regeringen och Trafikverket.

Riksrevisionen menar att den dåvarande regeringen i uppdraget den 23 juni 2021 till Trafikverket att ta fram förslag på nationell plan för transportinfrastrukturen 2022–2033 begränsade verkets möjlighet att utforma planförslaget på ett effektivt sätt. Riksrevisionen anger att regeringen genom uppdraget intecknade det framtida ekonomiska utrymmet långt efter planperiodens slut och att detta till stor del berodde på att regeringen pekade ut de nya stambanorna för höghastighetståg som till stor del var ofinansierade. Riksrevisionen anser dock att problemet med inteckningen av det ekonomiska utrymmet har minskat betydligt i och med beslutet av den nuvarande regeringen i december 2022 att avbryta flera etapper av de nya stambanorna. Riksrevisionen bedömer emellertid att problemet med inteckning av framtida planer inte är löst och att det finns

en stor risk för att inteckningen fortsätter, inte minst till följd av tillkommande kostnadsökningar.

Riksrevisionen anser vidare att den dåvarande regeringen också begränsade Trafikverket genom att ange i uppdraget om att ta fram förslag till nationell plan för transportinfrastrukturen 2022–2033 att planförslaget skulle utgå från att den då gällande nationella planen som fastställdes 2018 skulle fullföljas och genom att också peka ut specifika nya åtgärder som skulle ingå i Trafikverkets planförslag, trots att det inte fanns något utrymme i den ekonomiska ramen. Riksrevisionen konstaterar dessutom att en ytterligare förklaring till det begränsade utrymmet för nya namngivna investeringar i nationell plan är de betydande kostnadsökningar som har skett för åtgärder som fördes över från 2018 års nationella plan.

Riksrevisionen menar att regeringens beslut i juni 2022 att fastställa den nationella planen 2022–2033 innebar en försämring av den samhällsekonomiska lönsamheten, jämfört med Trafikverkets förslag som redan det hade låg lönsamhet. Riksrevisionen anser dessutom att regeringens beslut i juni 2022 generellt har brustit när det kommer till motiveringar och transparens. Riksrevisionen konstaterar att regeringen i beslutet nämner vilka åtgärder som läggs till i förhållande till Trafikverkets förslag och lämnar motiveringar till dessa. Samtidigt noterar Riksrevisionen att de åtgärder som regeringen tar bort inte nämns, är svåra att hitta och att borttagandet inte har motiverats.

Riksrevisionen konstaterar vidare att regeringen i fastställelsebeslutet i juni 2022 kraftigt minskade den finansiella ramen till ERTMS (European Rail Traffic Management System – en gemensam europeisk standard för tågskyddssystem), trots att det hade varit en av Trafikverkets mest prioriterade satsningar. Ett förskjutet införande av ett nytt signalsystem får, som Riksrevisionen ser det, stora negativa konsekvenser för järnvägssystemet och innebär enligt Riksrevisionen stora ökade kostnader på sikt.

Riksrevisionen riktar också kritik mot att Trafikanalys inte fick något uppdrag av regeringen att granska Trafikverkets planförslag. Riksrevisionen menar att Trafikanalys borde ha getts ett sådant uppdrag för att låta en tredje, för processen utomstående, part uttala sig om planförslaget.

Riksrevisionen lämnar följande rekommendationer till regeringen: • Klargör hur regeringens fastställelse av nationell plan avviker från

Trafikverkets förslag och föregående plan, samt motivera alla ändringar som innebär att åtgärder lagts till eller tagits bort.

• Avbryt i större utsträckning namngivna investeringar när förut-

sättningarna för genomförandet har försämrats. Detta gäller

investeringar som inte byggstartats. • Lämna stort utrymme åt Trafikverket att utforma sitt planförslag.

Regeringens styrning över vilka namngivna investeringar som ska ingå

i nationell plan bör i första hand ske i fastställelsebeslutet, inte i

uppdraget till Trafikverket att ta fram ett planförslag. • Gör Trafikanalys roll som granskare av Trafikverkets planförslag till

ett obligatoriskt steg i planrevideringen genom att exempelvis reglera

det i Trafikanalys instruktion. Regeringen bör i större utsträckning

beakta Trafikanalys synpunkter. Utöver den typ av granskning som

Trafikanalys genomfört bör även ett riskbaserat urval av namngivna

investeringar granskas. Riksrevisionen lämnar följande rekommendationer till Trafikverket: • Prioritera åtgärder med hög samhällsekonomisk lönsamhet i förslaget

till nationell plan. • Motivera tydligt de prioriteringar som görs i förslaget till nationell

plan. Detta gäller särskilt förslag till nya åtgärder, befintliga åtgärder

där förutsättningarna för genomförande har försämrats och samhälls-

ekonomiskt olönsamma åtgärder. • Redovisa i förslaget till nationell plan och i de samlade effekt-

bedömningarna hur kostnader och nyttor för varje namngiven åtgärd

förändrats sedan föregående planbeslut. • Ange åtgärdernas objektsnummer i förslaget till nationell plan för att

underlätta spårning. • Förtydliga fasindelningen i planeringsprocessen genom att ange fas-

indelningen (planering, förberedelse för byggstartsbeslut och bygg-

startsbeslut) och planerat byggstartsår i två separata kolumner i bilaga

1. Detta behövs eftersom den nuvarande indelningen ofta missförstås

och byggstarten dessutom kan ske tidigare eller senare än vad

fasindelningen ger sken av.

3 Regeringens bedömning av Riksrevisionens iakttagelser

Regeringen välkomnar Riksrevisionens granskning. Under 2023 påbörjade regeringen arbetet med att ta fram en ny nationell plan för perioden 2026–2037. Riksrevisionens granskning kommer att utgöra ett stöd i det arbetet.

Riksrevisionen anger att den dåvarande regeringen genom uppdraget att ta fram förslag på nationell plan för transportinfrastrukturen 2022–2033 till Trafikverket i juni 2021 intecknade det framtida ekonomiska utrymmet långt efter planperiodens slut och att detta till stor del berodde på att regeringen då pekade ut de nya stambanorna för höghastighetståg som till stor del var ofinansierade. Redan drygt två månader efter regeringsskiftet hösten 2022 fattade regeringen beslut om att avbryta planeringen för de s.k. centrala systemdelarna av de nya stambanorna. Det gjorde att inteckningen av framtida planperioder minskade med ungefär 162 miljarder kronor jämfört med beslutet i juni 2022 om fastställelse av den nationella trafikslagsövergripande planen för transportinfrastrukturen för perioden 2022–2033. Regeringen instämmer i Riksrevisionens konstaterande att det är naturligt att nationell plan i viss mån intecknar den ekonomiska ramen även efter planperiodens slut. Det beror på att åtgärder i nationell plan förväntas byggstartats före planperiodens slut men då också kan komma att binda upp ekonomiska medel efter planperiodens slut för att kunna färdigställas. Men regeringen anser också att en inteckning av ekonomiska medel efter planperiodens slut inte systematiskt bör överutnyttjas.

Riksrevisionen rekommenderar att regeringen i fastställelsebeslutet i större utsträckning ska avbryta namngivna investeringar som inte byggstartats när förutsättningarna för genomförandet har försämrats. Fastställelsebeslut fattas när en ny nationell plan antas, normalt var fjärde år. Inom planeringssystemet för transportinfrastrukturen beslutar regeringen årligen om vilka åtgärder som Trafikverket får byggstarta respektive förbereda för byggstart. I samband med dessa beslut har regeringen konstaterat att objekt där stora och i planeringen påverkbara förändringar redovisas kan komma att omprövas av regeringen. I det senaste beslutet, som fattades den 18 januari 2024, ansåg regeringen, för tre av Trafikverkets föreslagna objekt, att kostnadsökningarna föranleder en översyn (LI2024/02481). Trafikverket fick därför i uppdrag att se över och minska kostnaderna för dessa tre objekt och snarast möjligt återkomma med en ny kostnadsbedömning och förnyad bedömning om byggstart för respektive objekt. Regeringen vill dock i detta sammanhang poängtera att varje investering med förändrade förutsättningar behöver analyseras enskilt och i sin kontext, t.ex. med beaktande av planeringsförutsättningar för kommunal planering.

Som Riksrevisionen konstaterar är kostnadsökningarna i vissa namngivna objekt betydande. Regeringen anser att det är problematiskt att omfattande kostnadsökningar sker och ser att detta påverkar genomförbarheten av andra namngivna objekt. Detta har regeringen tagit upp bl.a. i det s.k. inriktningsuppdrag som Trafikverket fick den 15 juni 2023 (LI2023/02737). Regeringen instämmer i Riksrevisionens bedömning att bättre kostnadskontroll behöver uppnås, att kunskapsnivån om kostnadsutvecklingen och lärandet från tidigare erfarenheter behöver öka samt att en god transparens kring kostnadsökningar är viktig för att insatser för tidiga kostnadsbesparingar ska kunna göras. Regeringen bedömer att det krävs ett omfattande arbete för att motverka de kostnadsökningar för infrastrukturåtgärder som går att påverka, inte minst förbättrade kalkyler i investeringarnas tidiga planeringsskeden. Det är av stor vikt för regeringen att kostnadskalkylerna är realistiska, och projekten ska vid genomförande präglas av god budgetdisciplin.

Regeringen följer noga det arbete som sker inom Trafikverket kring kostnadskontroll. Vidare har Trafikanalys i uppdrag att granska och följa upp arbetet med kostnadskontroll (I2022/01644). Regeringen har också, för samtliga namngivna objekt där en förändring av byggstartsperiod föreslås, från Trafikverket inhämtat kronologisk information om bedömd objektskostnad och eventuella innehållsförändringar i de planeringssteg som objektet passerat sedan det för första gången ingick i en av regeringen beslutad nationell plan. För resterande namngivna objekt i planen, har den senaste bedömningen av kostnaden och orsakerna till kostnadsökningar inhämtats.

Planeringsprocessen för transportinfrastrukturen ändrades i och med riksdagens beslut med anledning av propositionen Planeringssystem för transportinfrastruktur (prop. 2011/12:118, bet. 2011/12:TU13, rskr. 2011/12:257), bl.a. i syfte att öka regeringens inflytande över besluten i nationell plan och göra kopplingen till den statliga budgetprocessen tydligare. Det är därför en del av planeringsprocessen att regeringen har möjlighet att göra omprioriteringar i Trafikverkets förslag till nationell 6 plan och löpande fatta beslut om byggstart för objekt. Regeringen ser det

därför som naturligt att det finns avvikelser mellan Trafikverkets planförslag och regeringens fastställelsebeslut. Det är dock viktigt att den långsiktiga planeringsprocessen för transportinfrastrukturen värnas och att utgångspunkten är att infrastrukturen ska planeras, utvecklas och förvaltas så att de transportpolitiska målen nås. Regeringen instämmer i Riksrevisionens rekommendation att skillnaderna mellan Trafikverkets förslag och det slutliga fastställelsebeslutet, liksom motiven till skillnaderna, kan förtydligas för ökad förståelse kring beslutet.

Regeringen instämmer även i Riksrevisionens slutsats att en konsekvens av fastställelsebeslutet i juni 2022 var att införandet av ERTMS försenades och fördyrades.

Bland det stora antalet remissinstanser som lämnat synpunkter på Trafikverkets förslag till nationell plan för transportinfrastrukturen för perioden 2022–2033 ingår flera för området relevanta myndigheter, bl.a. Trafikanalys. Riksrevisionen rekommenderar att Trafikanalys ska ges ett särskilt uppdrag att som tredje part granska Trafikverkets förslag till nationell plan, i enlighet med skrivningar i propositionen Planeringssystem för transportinfrastruktur (prop. 2011/12:118 s. 74). Trafikanalys fick ett sådant uppdrag som nämns i propositionen inom ramen för arbetet med 2014 och 2018 års nationella planer. Regeringens uppfattning är att det är viktigt att ta del av Trafikanalys synpunkter på planförslaget, men att detta kan göras på olika sätt.

4 Regeringens åtgärder med anledning av Riksrevisionens iakttagelser

Regeringen anser att Riksrevisionens granskning av nationella planen för perioden 2022–2033 är ett viktigt bidrag i arbetet med att utveckla processen kring framtagandet av nationell plan. Regeringen står i begrepp att ta fram en infrastrukturproposition för att kunna fatta ett beslut om en ny nationell plan under 2026. Riksrevisionens iakttagelser och rekommendationer utgör ett underlag i den fortsatta processen.

Regeringen ser inga skäl att vidta några ytterligare åtgärder i nuläget med anledning av Riksrevisionens rekommendationer. I de fall regeringen framöver ser behov av ytterligare justeringar avser regeringen att återkomma. Regeringen anser därmed att granskningsrapporten är slutbehandlad.

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Landsbygds- och infrastrukturdepartementet

Utdrag ur protokoll vid regeringssammanträde den 11 april 2024

Närvarande: statsminister Kristersson, ordförande, och statsråden Busch, Billström, Svantesson, Ankarberg Johansson, Edholm, J Pehrson, Waltersson Grönvall, Jonson, Strömmer, Roswall, Forssmed, Tenje, Forssell, Slottner, M Persson, Wykman, Malmer Stenergard, Kullgren, Liljestrand, Bohlin, Carlson, Pourmokhtari

Föredragande: statsrådet Carlson

Regeringen beslutar skrivelse Riksrevisionens rapport om nationell plan för transportinfrastrukturen